I will be adding a new link titled “Sandbox” in the right hand menu.
That link will get you to this page.
I had originally set up the “Reader Initiated Alert” page for ‘alerts’. I was thinking this, for instance, might be when a preferred stock is undergoing a temporary selloff and someone wants to let the population know about it quickly. Of course we all (including me) use the ‘alert’ page for general messaging.
I am requesting that we start using the Sandbox page for all general talk, and try to preserve the ‘alerts’ page for ‘alerts’.
I have had a screen up on one of my monitors all week where I see all comments – no matter where they are posted–it is a great page and I wish everyone had a page like that–believe me we all benefit from all the knowledge being shared. I don’t want to stifle any of the exchange of knowledge, but hope to get things a bit better organized by adding the Sandbox page.
Just got a personal education in fixed rate duration/credit spread risk.
On 3/25, I (and, I believe others on this site) bought a Jeffries 6.0% BAA2 bond maturing 2044 callable 10/25 for 97.10.
Nice, safe, investment.
It is currently priced at 88.85 for an unrealized loss of 8.5% in 25 days.
Ouch
Westie,
88.85 sounds wrong. I looked through my Jeffries bonds and the prices reported by Schwab. I don’t have yours, but nothing about the prices of mine suggests anything that low.
Number of II posts the last few days from top 40 posters:
Charles M 39
Rocks2stocks 34
lt 17
Gary 15
Dick Whitman 13
SteveA 10
mjtroll 10
af 7
Westie 16 6
BearNJ 6
Maine 6
NewToThis2015 6
pig pile 6
Martin G 5
Yield Hunter 5
costasco 4
tizod 4
rk160 4
Newbie 3
Justin 3
Jim 3
Franklin 3
John F Olsen 3
FC 3
Jim H 2
h-ster 2
mbg 2
jb 2
Greg Gilbert 2
Don Cary 2
Bill S 2
Mike D 2
PetoskeyMI 1
Mark in CO 1
ESW3 1
DJ 1
Pete 1
KingCash 1
FL_Guy 1
2whiteroses 1
Add one more– not sure what this implies.
Wasn’t aware there was a way to count them.
Is there an award for 1st place or last place?
Torsten Slok today:
It normally takes 18 months on average for the US to negotiate a trade deal, see chart below.
Why does it take so long? Because trade negotiations involve going through what is imported into each country line by line and then negotiating the tariff for each product category (t-shirts, pencils, cars, pharmaceuticals, lawnmowers, services, etc.). The negotiations also involve discussions about non-tariff barriers, tax differences, rules of origin discussions, IP rights, labor standards, environmental standards, anti-dumping, dispute resolution, digital trade and e-commerce, government procurement, and sometimes security and defense considerations.
We reiterate our view that if current policies do not change, then the probability of a US recession in 2025 is 90%.
Random thought while working in the garden………
You already know my underwriting background.
I got paid to underwrite (predict).
Hero if I’m right, syonara if I am wrong.
If I had to bet my xxxx on the course of interest rates 2025-2026, I would bet:
Short term interest rates will drop whether for economic (recession) or political reasons. IMHO, fed funds in the 2’s by the end of 2026.
I would conversely bet that longer term interest rates will rise because of the Risk Credit Spread rising in both the public and private sectors.
Guessing + 200 bps in private sector – higher in junk.
In the US gov’t sector, my concerns are: foreign funds flight, my expectation that the Big Beautiful tax cut Bill will pass, and finally that the President will continue to jawbone interest rates, replacing fed governors as soon as he can with loyalists. IMHO His determination/ability to gain control of the fed is the greatest threat to long US gov’t rates. I offer no prediction as to long rates’ rise – My only conviction is that they are unlikely to fall.
I offer the thoughts above because of my reading of the continuing fixed/floating discussion. Which one to choose?
IMHO
Both fixed/floating have serious potential issues.
Floating’s issue is reduced yield.
Fixed issue is the potential of capital loss.
I see no easy solution
Another explanatory experience….
I was the Executor for my father in the late 1970’s.
He lived on the 4% tax free return of a portfolio of municipal bonds.
When interest rates rose into the teens, his 4% return became woefully inadequate. But we could not sell any of his bonds – they were worth 50% on the dollar.
We had to make some very painful adjustments.
Hard to forget.
Less than two weeks ago I put some cash into two MYGA’s paying 4.75% and 5.15% for 5 years. Not for everyone, but works for me. NY Life and Midland National. Helps with the sleep factor, the account values go up every day.
There’s the term preferreds that must be redeemed that could be held in the interim with this thesis.
That sounds like a tough situation to have had to deal with and I regularly think about this kind of scenario with the perpetual allocations.