Finally we get to put a wrap on this year–and to say I am ready for an end would be an understatement. This grind day in and day out has been exhausting and has created plenty of red in our preferreds and baby bonds. Of course it could have been worse–and maybe it will be, but that will be NEXT year–today marks the end of THIS year.
Now if I was a regular writer on Seeking Alpha I would have virtually NO losses–yes it is true. Since most of my losers have not been sold – they aren’t losses!! Actually I like SA and I use it for ideas, but now pretty much all of the most popular folks claim that losses aren’t losses at all–well I guess you just make up the rules as you go–when stocks are going up they are gains, but when they go down they are NOT losses. Oh well whether unrealized or realized losses they are losses. Everyone has their opinion and should do what makes them feel good.
Today the S&P500 futures are off almost 1/2%—thinking this is meaningful is kind of silly, although yesterday futures were green and we continued through the day with a pretty vigorous rally. We know that if we tossed a coin right now we could predict the regular trading day–without the futures market. I prefer flat to a bit up so we don’t get substantial bleed into the income issues
The 10 year treasury is at 3.86% right now which is up a couple basis points from yesterdays close. With only the Chicago PMI being released at 8:45 a.m. we shouldn’t see too much movement in rates.
Yesterday I took a nibble on the Federal Agricultural Mortgage 5.25% perpetual preferred (AGM-F) now with a current yield of 6.82% and yield to first call of around 15%. While my intention was to nibble on a regional/community bank I couldn’t pass up the current yield on this issue, that while unrated, is pretty much investment grade–I hope to write more on Farmer Mac in the next few days or week.
Today I will do no nibbling. I have my annual full body check for skin cancer. I am a picky person when it comes to doc’s and I need to drive an hour each way to my appointment–I could do it at Mayo locally, but I don’t need everyone knowing my business in this small town (not because of the clinic folks, but the ‘locals’ that see you at a clinic). When I find either doc’s or dentists that I am comfortable with I stick with them and will gladly drive an hour and I found that in Faribault, MN just east of me.
Monday markets are closed once again as folks recuperate from their holiday celebrations–won’t be a problem for me because a single glass of bubbly will be plenty.
Got some AGM-E and more CSHCN for the final year-end nibble. Most of my buys in the past month are slightly in the red, but I have good (false) hope these will perform later in 2023+. Swap outs (e.g. more a M pref to a N pref) months ago locked in IRS losses – not a good thing, but something to manage.
I would still like to see more panic before a rally, but sitting back and watching the portfolio go green would be a very welcome break. Reg banks prefs like the OZK, ZION and MBIN are diff on my watch list to get more.
Thanks again to all on this site! I had losses this year, but the info exchanged on this site drastically improved my income % and quality for the future.
Going to check out your AGM recommendation, MGRD dropped back down to my original buy price of 14.85 so I will pick up a few more handfuls here at $15. Surprised to see MGRD’s common stock holding its own this year so I have few worries w/the preferred. Not very in-depth analysis but I’ll trust the ratings agencies ha.
Tried placing a bid for CT Light&Power, but IB wants me to switch my account to margin, and the ASK was $54 & $55 for the issues, and I was too lazy to click a few buttons and sign a signature or two to convert my account.
BoL at the doc’s. Everyone over 50 in my family has basal cancer. Thankful it ain’t melanoma tho!
Tim, Thank you for another great year! So appreciate you and your site!
Yes on dermo appt; we’re booked for 9am Tuesday morning! Recommend to all – as well as the “other” inspections which fall under the “stitch in time” umbrella. The literature on these is not ambiguous.
Stinky year but a wonderful day, I opened my CS acct and dividends/interest plums falling into my graces. Best time of the year. Great web site, Innovative Investor’s!
I just turned 80 (and my wife turned 81). My mind is still sharp (not as sharp as it used to be) and I go to the gym 3x a week. The main thing I notice is that my energy level is definitely not what it used to be. We all get down some times and when it happens to me, I look at something I’ve posted on the wall to remind me of how fortunate I am:
Be grateful
Be optimistic
Count my blessings
Use my strengths
Commit random acts of kindness
When I takes a moment to do these things, it almost always cheers me up.
Why not make acts of kindness one’s default mode instead of merely random:)
Tim, didn’t realize that this OUSTANDING website also comes with PSA’s (Public Service Announcements)! Everybody should get an annual skin cancer scan at their dermatologist. Just takes a few minutes and if all is good, you will be on your way. The push to always have high SPF suncreens is a relatively recent recommendation. Many older folks did not know that when they were young and subsequently got sunburned on occasion. Malignant melanoma is nothing to sneeze at. It can literally put you six feet under in short order if not treated, like in weeks to months. Basal and squamous are more common, but should also be dealt with. Get er done. . .
Tim, Mr. C, and everyone who wrote here about having or having had cancer – and actually all of us here on Tim’s wonderful site: Happy New Year’s and I’m rooting for all of us with health issues, and our families as well, to make a full recovery. Bravo/brava to all.
mbg
I had cancer at a young age and was looking for natural remedies, but in the end the doctors said chemo and radiation would get me 70% chance to live.
I was told to not eat apricot seeds because they contain amygdalin. Depending on my body and how it would react, the body would convert that to cyanide and they (the doctors) would have to deal with various side effects that I would encounter.
Mr. C – what would you expect an Oncologist that makes on average $400 k a year from prescribing toxic drugs to say. They have to protect their cash cow. Big pharma controls the clinical studies – doctors get kick backs – media is 80% ad supported by big pharma. Apricot seeds only kill the bad cells and does not attack the good cells. I’ve been taking this everyday for 6 years. If big pharma was right I should have been dead 6 years ago, lol.
I think that you could also make the same argument for a non pharma startup that wants to make millions by advertising a product that is natural and can help fight cancer (they can’t legally say that it is proven and supported by FDA). Big money is in clinical pharmaceutical companies and there have been many trials and lab cases, but they havent found any successful trials that can be repeated by other scientists that warrant going to the next level. Hence these products will continue to be marketed and sold direct to consumer for retail. If a large pharma company found a product that came from apples, apricots, peaches, etc that fought cancer and proved it in repeatable and documented trials, it would be pre-scribed by oncologists everywhere.
My Dr was a data scientist, oncologist, and a leader in his field, and more importantly was like a grandfather to me. He practiced into his 70’s and kept working as to save lives with the knowledge that he had.
WRONG – they can’t make any money selling apricot seeds, VIT C or oxygen treatments so they manipulate data in studies so no one will do it. Follow the money. It’s corrupt. When has big pharma or the medical community cured a disease, never and they never will. They treat your symptoms with toxic drugs which leads to further disease. The best way to get healthy is to de-toxify your body. ATB
The great thing is that each of us have our own minds, cognizance, experiences shaped from what we read and what we hear at the coffee shop. And we can take them and make decisions off of them – good or bad. When those ideas and thoughts are shared with us it is good that we question them or simply believe in what we read, watched, or have been told. This is why scientists are rigid in their practices as noone will believe them unless the documentation is there. All of this is similar to investing when ideas are shared here. An idea should be vetted and facts (ex is going through the 10-q statements) gone through. An acceptable level of due diligence is done.
I’ll end with a saying my grandfather liked saying when salesman stopped by is that, “Just because a pig has wings, doesnt mean it can fly.”
Mr. C – if you do a little research through the New England Journal of Medicine you will find the survival rates of cancer using chemo in almost every type of cancer is less than 10%, some are as low as 2% live beyond 5 years. You seem to trust your Oncologist where I don’t. My family has been ravished by cancer and my wife and I choose a different path. I have saying for you to, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different out come is stupidity. I was only trying to help by mentioning the seeds, but when you do something different than mainstream everybody attacks the messenger. I truly wish you well in your cancer journey. I know it’s not easy. ATB
Tim…. Happy new year and thanks to you and the contributors for a great site. Have had basal cell, squamous cell, and melanoma cell skin cancers cut off successfully, no biggie if you don’t wait too long. Going back next Wednesday
to have the stitches out from the latest round. Similar to Bear’s thoughts, yes,
every day is a gift. Sometimes I wonder, however, if I could return a few of them for credit?
Thanks lucky–yes I think this cancer is fairly common – just need thos regular checks–good luck to you.
A default is a loss. I can handle fluctuating prices as long as they keep paying the dividends. Trading opportunities exist, selling at a loss to buy something else that also fell isn’t a losing swap.
TimH–I will look into that. I had a bout with skin cancer on my arm a couple years ago and it appears fine–but one never knows.
Tim, please delete this laetrile nonsense.
https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/treatment/cam/hp/laetrile-pdq#_37
“Laetrile has shown little anticancer activity in animal studies and no anticancer activity in human clinical trials.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._Edward_Griffin
“George Edward Griffin (born November 7, 1931) is an American author, filmmaker, and conspiracy theorist. Griffin’s writings promote a number of right-wing views and conspiracy theories regarding political, defense and health care. In his book World Without Cancer, he argued in favor of a pseudo-scientific theory that asserted cancer to be a nutritional deficiency curable by consuming amygdalin.”
David–yes it is getting a bit deep in the weeds and I have unapproved some comments too deep.
Tim, thanks for everything you do for all of us here. Wishing you and yours a safe. prosperous and happy New Year. To paraphrase the motto of a local radio DJ, “Unwrap each new year like a precious gift.”
Thanks BearNJ–same wishes to you.
Tim, I own both the AGM D&E from Oct. when they hit a low.
Markets today should be very low volume with the fixed market closing at 11:00 West coast time. Lot of businesses have employees rotating vacation time off this past week and next. So I expect the next 4 day week to be low volume too, but that is just my guess.
See what the New Year brings. Expect more of the unrealized losses in the accounts but as long as income comes in and we don’t sell and none of our holdings suspend payment I am not going to worry (too much)
I received payments from TSFA, CUBB, CHSCM, CHSCN, and MGR to the account today.
Hi Charles–yes maybe it will be quiet today. Just opened my accounts and found lots of goodies (dividend and interest) there–at least with Fido–eTrade lags a day.
Tim, I truly thank you for your wisdom and am so thankful for your hard work and dedication to helping everyone here. A new year is like starting a new chapter in your life. It’s your chance to write an incredible story for yourself.
As everyone here pursue their hopes and dreams, may this year bring you each much success and may your journey be wonderful, Azure
Azure–thanks for always being here–I appreciate it. Yes it is a mind game starting a new year–wash out the old and bring in the new.
Tim – Happy New Year to you and your family!! Stay safe.
PS: How is your son? Does he still so some work on this site?
Bigbear–happy new year to you as well. My son Matt hasn’t done anything lately–he had a child in April and I think he does ‘dad’ duty instead of website duty.
Thanks Tim for all you do for us visitors here. Good luck at the Doc today.
Thanks Gary – had a skin cancer bout a couple years ago so just a routine skin check-I’m not expecting issues.
Tim,
Trust your instincts. I had my skin doc tell me I shouldn’t worry about a mole I had. First incident was 24yrs ago. This mole looked normal, but when I was in a hot shower it would have a white ring around it. This would disappear later. After 2 more 6 month visits I got a appointment with his PA
She said lets do a biopsy just to be sure. You can guess what they found.
Without the heat on my skin showing the change….
Well off to work. I have a lead order to write up for a cancer center in Idaho Falls