While tech layoffs seem to get all the ‘press’ and headlines and make it appear that the job market is worsening, you wouldn’t know it from the JOLTS (job openings) report today.
The report came in at 10.5 million jobs being open versus expectation for 10.1 million and versus 10.5 million jobs last month.
While we may be exchanging tech jobs for burger flipping jobs the report would seem to indicate there are plenty of jobs out there. I looked at some of the breakdowns in category’s and didn’t see anything way out of line.
The S&P500 dropped almost a percent on the hot jobs news, but has climbed back to near the high of the day. The 10 year treasury yield didn’t initially react, but now is at 3.71% which is 5 basis points or so above the low yield for the day.
It is 12:45 pm central time and we will have the FOMC minutes released in 15 minutes and I would expect market movements (for no real reason except games being played).
Am I the only one who thinks these reports are meaningless? Too many factors not considered, and often manipulated to make a political case. Markets are forward looking while these reports tell what happened last month the smart money is already current. Like most news blurbs they can cause retail investors to move prices for a day or two, can be something to play against.
Watch for Q1 guidance when q4 earnings are announced in January. Weak Q1 guidance will pull equities down.
Martin,
Yesterday I saw a lot of oil production companies and trusts I follow drop by large amounts. VNOM, NRT, BSM, KRP ,DMLP, SJT, SBR. This seemed to follow a large drop in oil futures. Didn’t affect the mid stream companies much if at all. By the end of the day price of oil had recovered but the stock prices did not. Today oil dropped and didn’t recover.
What was strange is some of these like CEQP, SBR, NRT, SBR are gas not oil. Example of in a panic everything gets sold.
Rather than too many jobs, might it also be a case of too few workers. Certainly a large numbers of workers were lost as a result of Covid, namely
deaths, long Covid and early retirement after 18 months or so of isolation.
I have to wonder if a lot of business are always hiring because they know people are constantly quitting. If for some reason or another you actually are over staffed you can let the weaker go who fail to show up for work or whatever reason.
It is almost like most business will always.. always hire the right person thus always looking knowing they could use them. Might have to hire 5 to get 1 good one. Well that is how I think the service industry thinks for the most part.
Fc. You are correct ..companies are giving 5%+ raises to hire and retain top talent. Adding to wage inflation, key data for the fed
Windy,
On the FB my wife follows for COST there is a few complaints that new hires are starting at wages higher than some people who already work there. Leading to resentment. Can’t say how prevalent it is or just squeaky wheels.
Charles M.
It appears that it will be an “employees” market for a while; employees have legerage over wages, hours and where they work, home or office. It will likely remain that way, until unemployment substantailly rises. Until then, a sour note for lower nflation.
I am seeing more analysis that suggests that Covid deaths were mainly aged 65+, that long Covid is over-hyped and that underemployment is focused in the 20-40 age group. A rising number of articles are citing state and local programs that compensate the equivalent of $80,000 a year. For unemployed (couple?). As many as 14 states. Easy for me to say?
I think ACA is a big factor in the early retirements. Many people were working just to keep health insurance, and now they get it for free or greatly subsidized.
There are also healthcare workers still out of work due to vax mandates.
Some have early retired or moved into other fields. Labor costs are a huge expense for healthcare providers.
As far as the younger workers, I have heard frustration from both of my younger kids about being unable to get ahead and jobs don’t pay enough. I get it, rents are up, utilities are up, insurance is up, food is up, and on and on. You get a $2 an hour raise at work, but everything else has gone up 20% to 30%. It’s not sustainable.
And finally, my youngest son works in a safety sensitive industry, (airline), and he says when they go to hire new employees, 25% minimum can’t pass the drug screening, and if they do hire someone, they work a couple of weeks and get a paycheck and then you never see them again.
We had one who didn’t even bother to come in and pick up his last check. Another the company set up with the required work shoes, uniform, physical, drug test and he never showed up for work. Guess he was happy to get a free 150.00 pair of shoes.
Roughly 40-45% of those who died from Covid had been employed at the time of their illness.