Seems like every week we have 1-2 items of key importance – employment, inflation and interest rates. Markets live from news item to news item. Maybe in a year we will get back to fundamental investments stocks and bonds – what a silly thought. Right now with my personal lack of buys and sells it almost feels ‘normal’, although one is always looking over their shoulder to see what is about to bite them in the butt.
Yesterday was a kind of crazy day with the S&P500 trading in a giant sized range of about 3% points–before closing just 29 points above Monday (less than a 1% gain). Interest rates plunged on the softer (slightly) CPI news–but gave back some of the lower rates by the end of the day, but yet closed at 3.50%–where it remains this morning.
Today there will be no surprises as the Fed Funds rate will be raised by 50 basis points–as almost always the markets will be glued to Chair Powell’s news conference–hopefully he will be balanced – ‘inflation is trending down, but we must remain vigilant and data dependent’ etc.
I posted last night that golf company Drive Shack (DS) is delisting their securities (1 common share issue and 3 preferred issues). This company has been ‘on the ropes’ for a long time–years and years and there is ‘history’ so really this one is no surprise, but just the same if you are a preferred holder you are likely to take a further licking.
So with the futures signaling a quiet day let’s get this thing rolling!!
5 thoughts on “It’s Always Something – Let’s Go!”
They will continue to raise until they get fed funds rate above core PCE, currently at 5% IMHO. ATB
I’ll party if we get real drops in prices. Ready for it.
The fed wants to kill any year end party
50 basis points
*FED REPEATS `ONGOING’ RATE INCREASES ARE LIKELY APPROPRIATE
Real interest rates barely budged today:
(TNX) 10 year Treasury 3.536% +0.0350 (+0.9997%)
(TYX) 30 year Treasury 3.550% +0.0220 (+0.6236%)
We are close to parity and will soon probably be inverted in the 2 most important Treasuries. Fasten your seatbelts as the Fed isn’t done by any means https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vEEh0GF_C8
I have definitely become a bit more cautious, but I am buying tax frees to fill in my ladder and bought some 3/6 month Treasuries today from Vanguard with very nice yields 🍸
I am Azure
Whatever Powell is saying, markets (Fed Fund futures) think the Fed has roughly two more 25 basis point hikes to go between now May 2023. After that, markets are projecting rate cuts.