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4/25/2025
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Columbia Banking System COLB is acquiring Pacific Premier Bank PPBI in an all stock deal. COLB, whose home base is the Pacific Northwest, will add 60 offices in Southern California and bump its Southern California deposit share from #51 to #10.
Columbia’s banking unit, “Umpqua Bank”, is the 45th largest US bank with assets of $52 billion. Pacific Premier is the 101st largest bank with about $28 billion of assets. (3/24 data.) The combined bank, which will rebrand under the Columbia name, will have assets of ~$70 billion and rank about 40th by assets.
Too much CRE has been an issue. Columbia completed its long-pending Umpqua acquisition in 2023 just in time to walk into the 2023 Regional Bank Crisis. In February 2025, S&P finally raised COLB’s rating back up to BBB stable from BBB negative. COLB acknowledges that it will need to work down CRE again.
Columbia is down 16% Year to date. It yields 6.1%. Pacific Premier is down 17.5% YTD. It yields 6.6%. I think the combined company will be a 6%+ yielder.
Regional banking is a tough business. You have to pay interest to attract depositers. The TBTFs like Chase, with implied government backing, can get deposits almost for free. (On the other hand, Chase doesn’t give out free coffee and cookies like Umpqua Bank.) COLB is a legacy position, not adding banks now. JMO. DYODD.
Bear, I’m looking at The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (NTB), based in Bermuda. Damn thing got away from me during and after the Tariff Tantrum. Was poised to get in at $35+ but got distracted and by the time I came back to it was pushing $39, and today even hit $40.
NTB, interesting choice , not one that I have heard of. I will have to take a closer look.
Was looking at trade war risks last night and ended up looking at India, mostly ETFs
Largest India ETFs ranked by assets ($225 million cut off)
INDA iShares MSCI India ETF — largest — $9 billion
EPI WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF
FLIN Franklin FTSE India ETF
SMIN iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF
INDY iShares India 50 ETF
INCO Columbia India Consumer ETF
NFTY First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF
PIN Invesco India ETF
India ETFs ranked by YTD returns ($225 million cut off)
** Positive returns YTD **
INDY iShares India 50 ETF
NFTY First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF
INDA iShares MSCI India ETF
FLIN Franklin FTSE India ETF
** Negative returns YTD **
PIN Invesco India ETF
EPI WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF
INCO Columbia India Consumer ETF
SMIN iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF
INDA Speedometer / Popularity Meter – 134% – (1-month vol / 3-month vol)
Some say international stocks can be diversifiers. YTD return comparisons India ETFs vs popular US ETFs
INDY – best return – up 3%
INDA – largest fund – up 0.7%
SPY down 12%
SCHD down 7.7%
Comparison shopping:
HSI Hang Seng Index up 9.1% YTD
EWH iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF up 2.0%
FLHK Franklin FTSE Hong Kong ETF up 0.4%
India’s Gold reserves are among the top 10 nations. Most gold is held in India, not in the US. US Treasury bond holdings are $228 billion, rank 14th. Relations between the US and India are cordial with the US eager to sell India energy and arms. India needs arms vs. China and Pakistan. The US needs India as a counterbalance against China. IMHO, India does not appear to have a Mar-A-Lago Accord risk on its US bonds.
WisdomTree’s pitch on India. Tech – Mag7 etc – is about 30% of the US stock market. India: Tech has declined from a 20% share of the Indian stock market to 12%, indicating a diversifying economy. India has positive demographics: a large young growing population vs US and China, both aging. India does not rely as much on imports as other countries (xOil.) About 76% of India’s consumption is domestically sourced, up from 69% in 2021. Domestic sourcing, domestic consumption and a growing economy make India more tariff resistant than most. (Wisdom Tree, VettaFi, 4/4/25)
Just thinking out loud. Posted here to avoid non-preferred clutter on Sandbox. JMO. DYODD
Taking advantage of the lower dollar valuation and IBKR I have bought a few Indian securities that do not trade on US Exchanges. Considering same for Europe.
Something I don’t understand.
Stablecoin issuer Tether Investments had a cash tender offer open for up to 70% of the shares of Latin American ag company AGRO for $12.41 a share. The tender started in late March and closed yesterday.
But the shares never traded above about $11.50 during that whole time frame. The next ex-dividend date, in early May, is for only 17.5 cents.
So why didn’t arbs close the gap a bit more? What am I missing here?
Did you flip it? Some tender offers are limited in size so they might only get a partial tender or too late if oversubscribed then stuck with the rest of it. Or maybe they just didn’t notice or didn’t trust it.
Thanks Martin! I didn’t tender and some large holders said they wouldn’t either. Book value is in the mid-13s and I think anything below that is giving Tether an undeserved bargain. “Buy land, they ain’t making any more of it.”
MAGS closed at 30% off the all-time high. The low close on April 8 was a little lower. It looks like 40% off (~35) is possible. Would you buy at that price?
From a tweet today:
“At 2:20 PM, there was an $8 million spike in puts on the Nasdaq 100 ETF.
4 hours later, the US banned Nvidia, $NVDA, from selling their H20 chips to China.”
Front running the administration’s announcements has become normal business. Don’t call a watchdog…all fired.
Just noticed your NVDA msg (7:44pm NY ) …..
NVDA Tuesday Close $112.20 …
After Hrs at $105.33
There should not be anyone in office that wants to be there. Only people who are selected at random from a pool of people who would be qualified should be allowed to serve. People who actively want those roles are literally the worst candidates. Random choice would be better than voting. Once the debt is defaulted, only people who own USA shares will get to vote anyway (jk, I don’t think there is a default risk). Sir/Ma’am you were randomly selected from a pool of top candidates to be governor, are you willing to do it for 4 yrs? No? Sir, Ma’am, you were randomly selected….
OT – Your post is an excellent summary of how public officials were chosen in ancient Greece: by lot, as in the word “lottery,” not by election. The ancient Athenians, who are credited with inventing the idea of democracy, actually thought elections were undemocratic. They feared elections could be bought by wealthy oligarchs and invited tribal divisions.
Because the Athenians believed all were equal under the law and all had equal political rights, the lot was considered the fairest selection method for office. Interested citizens self-selected for offices, were publicly vetted for citizenship and character and then were chosen by lot. No campaigns, no political parties. Winners were limited to one term only
The idea of “election by lot” popped up throughout history. Some philosophers liked the idea (Cicero, Montesquieu, Rousseau, Arendt). The idea had a renaissance during the Renaissance. The Swiss used it for mayoral elections for 200 years. Some say the Anglo-Saxon jury system evolved from it. – Wikipedia, topic Sortition. JMO. DYODD
yup…we don’t have any conception of what a beneficent state would be anymore, because no one in my lifetime who hasn’t gone an viewed it somewhere else with their own eyes can even conceptualize what it would mean anymore. I’m not a statist, but know that it’s possible, because I’ve seen it…
Kind of like jury duty. And everyone knows how popular that is. Maybe if it paid better.
News says China is restricting rare earths sent to US. Ramaco is hoping to produce them but may not be for a few years. So Ramaco news may or may not be good for the stock. Also don’t know how many dollars their process can generate. Worth watching their progress. I do own METCZ but not METC.
Kentucky-headquartered Ramaco Resources (NASDAQ: METC) announced it has received a $6.1 million matching grant issued by the Wyoming Energy Authority for its Carbon Ore Rare Earth (CORE) Brook mine project.
The funding will match Ramaco’s future investment in building a rare earth and critical minerals pilot processing facility north of Sheridan, Wyoming.
The planned facility will be an enclosed structure located on Ramaco-owned property, with initial construction scheduled to begin in the fall of 2025.
Be careful with Rare Earth Elements companies. They are a haven for scammers, maybe because there are just so few listed rare earths stocks. The only NYSE listed semi-legit one I am aware of is MP, but you can see from the last few days how volatile it can be.
Anyone have thoughts on Net Power (NPWR)? They are a pre-revenue natural gas power startup. From what I can tell, they actually have a great technology: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allam_power_cycle. It’s very efficient, and involves full carbon capture. My energy consulting PhD physicist friend thought the approach was great.
The downside is that the scale up costs are very large. They were trading at ~$10 at the start of this year, slid to ~$7 on rumors of cost increases, then dropped hard to ~$3 after an earnings call where they said they needed $600-$900M to build out (about double earlier estimates). They’ve currently got about $500M of cash and about the same for market cap, with very little debt.
It’s since dropped to ~$2 with the recent market turmoil, but I don’t think they are actually affected much by tariffs. My guess would be something like 50% they fail to get funding and go out of business in the next two years, and 50% they get back up to $5 or higher. And if the test project works well (unknowable odds) they could easily go much much higher.
Anyone else following them? With their combination of high efficiency, carbon capture, and Texas natural gas, I feel like they might be politically resilient. And I think I’ve got a reasonable handle on the technology. But I know very little about the management or the fundraising environment.
Not a company that I follow but if you are interested in the concept, I might suggest taking a closer look at OKLA and GPRE.
OKLA is in the business of modular nuclear power for data centers, with a kicker that they will support nat.gas as a secondary/initial power source. I don’t own shares, but has been on my radar. I am not fond of relatively early stage companies like that with a dream and a monster CapEx cost.
GPRE is an ethanol company trying to pivot to carbon sequestration. Their share price is in the gutter and CEO just resigned. But they are trading at roughly 1/3 of book value, with a wide moat, and probably a takeover target. I do own recently purchased shares and some options positions.
OKLO is the modular nuke company…they are a long, long way from certification. They have a lot of cash but can they hang another 4 years or so?
You’re right. OKLO not OKLA. Too many tickers, too many letters. I didn’t say to invest in them, just to investigate. lol
Common stocks are getting hammered, At least the ones I look at.
Just a guess, the herd is panicking having bought at higher prices and trying to recover some of their capitol or as Lt said in the Litter box earlier, people are seeing ghosts past of 2008 or maybe both.
With the forced layoffs in government, cutbacks in tech and I suspect with layoffs in manufacturing that may accelerate, cutbacks in government spending, then add in tax cuts that result in less taxes collected by the government, include a pinch of spice to the bubbling cauldron of stew less spending by consumers who are a big part of the economy and what do you have?
Is the plan that Trump & Bessent have going to work right away without any pain? Lower oil prices even with people using less, lower interest rates even though consumers and a lot of businesses are maxed out on credit and debt. Tax breaks and tariffs to force businesses to start manufacturing in the US.
I think this great reset is an experiment that no one is sure is going to work.
Will people demand higher wages to pay for higher costs? or if jobs are lost will prices drop and people be forced to take lower wages just to have a job?
Will automation and robotics take over manufacturing and doing the jobs no one wants to do? That will take time and money.
Everyone thinks its going to happen to the other guy not them.
I don’t know, except when you try to do a hard reset there is a tendency for things to quit working and instead of going forward you have to start over.
Unless the laws of physics have changed I can’t change direction while moving in my car without first slowing down and maybe even coming to a stop if I decide to do a 90 degree turn like these geniuses are planning. Then I have to start over accelerating to get back up to the speed I had been going at.
Rocket Mortgage is buying out Redfin RDFN for $12.50 a share later this year. RDFN is trading near $8 today. I am guessing the market is discounting the prospects of the deal going through, but there is a good bit of upside there if it does and I haven’t heard of any impediments to it closing, but I have not researched it.
Someone with time might want to look into it a bit more. I have some option plays set up where I come out OK either way.
All stock transaction for shares of RKT.
“Under the terms of the agreement, each share of Redfin common stock will be exchanged for a fixed ratio of 0.7926 shares of Rocket Companies Class A common stock…”
The press release I read said all stock for a value of $12.50 so a fixed ratio vs. a fixed price would explain the price movement.