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3/19/2025
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Copper futures (HG) have been rallying since Jan 2 and are approaching the May high. OTOH, FCX, which peaked with HG in May, has had a much smaller rally. I find that odd. There must be something more to FCX than the price of copper. Either that, or FCX is way underpriced.
With dramatic swings beginning at the 2023 high of 95, crude oil futures (CL) have corrected to the current 66.5. Along the way down, there have been a lower low and a lower high. I’m guessing at another lower low 59-62.
Why would this happen? Dollar weakness? Supply/demand/growth expectations?
What actually happens will, no doubt, be different. I care because I would like to add to my small collection of oil stocks, but I’m in no hurry.
Rocks, You have been noticing the same thing I have. The correlation is more noticeable with the producers, Why I am avoiding them for now except for trades. The pipeline companies will follow but not as wide in the price swings.
I think all the reasons you gave apply except growth. Too much growth falls into the over supply category. Except for a country or company that is desperate it doesn’t make sense to grow production when demand isn’t keeping up as all you’re doing is flooding the market and pushing the price down. I can see this happening with natural gas.
In the comparison of total performance of various etfs to 20 SPX stocks of my choosing that I started in May 2024, PFFA has moved into the #2 spot. If I include IAU (gold), it would be #1 by a big margin.
IAU +28.5%
IBIT +18.9% (Bitcoin)
PFFA +10.9%
19 slices +8.5% (excludes MRNA)
SPY +6.6%
20 slices +4.1%
QQQ +3.7%
TLT +2.5%
A small investment in Bitcoin can be a valuable addition to an income-oriented portfolio. In the long run, Bitcoin is predicted to go to $1.5 million in a few short years, according to a famous tech-stock Guru who was interviewed on Bloomberg today. That’s about $300,000 a year easy money.
In the short run, Bitcoin will make you very happy that you have invested mostly in preferreds and sensible income securities.
If you are a gambler suffering from monetary separation anxiety after betting on a sure-thing, Bitcoin will make you wonder if you should double down to get back to break even. JMO. DYODD.
Bear, all the interest in BC makes me wonder about the value of the dollar yet they still convert BC into whatever currency is needed to exchange the currency for a service or product. So a lot of what someone says is the value of BC is speculation or what the market is willing to pay for 1 BC
I’m old school and the most I am willing to risk is buying a stock of a company that is dealing with gold or silver or making the picks and shovels to get it out of the ground.
In BC case I wouldn’t be surprised more money is being made off selling the chips and the hardware to mine the BC
I normally hedge by increasing cash. I started small test positions in bitcoin and gold during the recent market chaos as portfolio diversifiers and dollar devaluation hedges. Bitcoin was once thought to be uncorrelated to the stock market. No longer. Bitcoin is like SPY high on meth – you can’t taser it down. Frightening to watch money vanish on a down day. Exhilarating to watch it power up returns on a good day.
On the plus side, I got some lavish returns, enough to keep me in the game, though not enough to cover my losses. I suspect Bitcoin was invented by the creators of the Pick-5 lottery. Throw down 12 bucks for your regular card. Lose $10. Win $2 on the Xtra. Feel like a winner. Come back for more. JMO. DYODD.
There are various ways of losing with cryto. I’m down 32% from 4 yrs ago. Unfortunately only had a tiny amount of Bitcoin but more of other junk. A tiny investment overall.
Also sometimes it just disappears. North Koreans stole 1.4 billion in February according to the FBI.
danzeb – Tell me about it. I lost $100K on an Ethereum node project. When all is said and done, outside of bitcoin, the entire crypto sphere especially if you are getting down to meme coins or DEFI networks etc. at best is no different than rolling the dice on the pink sheets for small cap equities. And if you are a large size trader, good luck with exit liquidity. Sure you can see 100% gains in a day but here today, gone today.
That incident you are referring to was from an Ethereum wallet @ Bybit. The CEO goes into the details here. He made good from his own funds!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RG52EZvGD4
Anything outside of BTC is just not worth it. People don’t realize but in the last 16 years now, bitcoin has only had 3 negative return years. On an annualized basis, year-by-year going back to 2010 the annualized performance returns of bitcoin absolutely blows away any other asset classes.
BearNJ – Wild to think that even a buy and hold approach would have worked out for bitcoin, now with a near 16 year performance track record (only 3 negative return years.)
Check out these annualized returns. 2010 isn’t even populated because it would be too unfair, probably 10,000%+ just for that one year.
2011: 1,473%
2012: 186%
2013: 5,507%
2014: -58%
2015: 35%
2016: 125%
2017: 1,331%
2018: -73%
2019: 95%
2020: 301%
2021: 66%
2022: -65%
2023: 156%
2024: 121%
I mentioned in November that I bought a tiny position in DOW at 45 for the dividend and that I had a downside target of 32-34. The recent low is 35.48.
This February article from Chemical & Engineering News is not encouraging and may reflect broader problems in the economy.
https://cen.acs.org/business/economy/Dow-cut-1500-jobs-economic/103/i3
Rocks thanks for the link. Hard to believe 2024 was a bad year for Dow and Lyondell and Dow is looking at Europe as a weak market when BASF had an ok year. Maybe the type of chemicals they are in?
Picked up some Target (TGT) pre market. Screened the Dividend Kings this weekend. Target and Exxon came thru my screen as decent buys. Going to hold off on Exxon for now as I have enough oil position. Target has 57 yr dividend raise streak, PE below 12, its current yield is in the rarified air right now. Going against sentiment and starting what I hope a very long term hold here.
I’m picturing Porky wearing a doughboy helmet.
% off recent all-time highs:
WMT -20%
COST -17%
Importers like a strong dollar and no tariffs.
Every week. let alone, each day, Warren’s $334 Billion in Cash Equilivnts, sure looks very smart.
Jim Berkshire Hathaway has enough cash to generate good income off of 4 to 5% interest.
We know that Seeley dosn’t make mattress’ large enough.
I’m close to 20% cash eq. with half in SGOV at 4% and half in WTFCP/M at 7% (ending soon). Is it not enough or too much?
Rocks about the same for me but most backing GTC orders.
From the all-time high, Mag 7 + 4 more.
AAPL -15%
MSFT -19%
AMZN -19%
META -18%
GOOGL -21%
NVDA -29%
TSLA -53%
AVGO -25%
NFLX -16%
NDX -13%
SMH -24%
Ramaco Resources METC reported earnings and revenue beats yesterday. METC is in the business of selling steel-making coal, aka metallurgical coal. The common stock was up 38% today, with a bump from reports of heavier tariffs — for now anyway – on imports of Canadian steel. Ramaco is also working on a rare earth project. JMO. DYODD: tariffs are a two-way street. MET, METCB, METCL, METCZ
NVDA looks interesting 91-100 for technical reasons. At 100 NVDA would be 35% off the all-time high.
Agreed, On it’s last similar fade ( late Aug / Early Sept ), it got down to the $101-ish area. Long term this item should be Good.
I’m not a tech like many, yet once it hits $100 ….. I would guess that mid $90’s is probable.
On that Fall ’24 fade I did open a position @ $102.25 … wanted to add, but off to the races.
Appreciate the post’s.
Rocks, bot a small piece end of day yesterday, just sold for a ~5% gain. Similar mini-trades past week or so w LEN, DHI and STZ. I think it’s a time adjustment behavior of being newly retired . . . this foolishness has got to stop. 🙂
News about inflation and tariffs has increased volatility in the stock market. S&P down 7.6% and NASDAQ down 11.5% in the past month. I sold some stocks in the past few weeks but should have sold more. Watching when to jump back in but need to decide what’s overpriced and what’s underpriced.
Shopping didn’t seem to bad today with some prices dropping. Dozen organic eggs $4.49 and gasoline $2.61 with credit card.
The only place I’ve seen eggs that cheap is in the US Government Bureau of Labor Statistics reports where they are priced at 4.95 — that’s where they calculate CPI – which explains why Social Security increases are so low.
Locally eggs are running 7.99 a dozen which was in line with the commodity charts. “Was in line” explained: To my surprise, egg prices began abruptly dropping from 8.22 to 6.04 beginning around March 4, just a few days before The DOJ began investigating farmers for not rebuilding their flocks fast enough. (March 7).
Pro tip: if you paid a $2 surcharge when you bought a genuine New York Egg Cream in Brooklyn, they knew you were a tourist. JMO DYODD.
Average Price: Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
This comment just for fun.
TSLA -13+% today, over a 50% haircut from the all-time high. 200 looks possible. Is valuation finally going to matter? Is he still the world’s richest man?
Google has a PE of 20. MSFT, Amazon and Nvda have PEs in the 30s.
TSLA has a PE over 100.
if you value it like a car company its worth $15. toss in a multiplier and you still get values under 50.
I put a few low bids in for Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Nvda. They all hit today. I only bought 30 ish shares or so of each as I feel like we could see lower lows with everything going on. I don’t normally buy common stock only preferreds and bonds.
What are others watching during this pull back?
Tsla gone from high of $360 to $226 in 3 weeks. Wow.
Well Libero, It’s not a stock market, but a market of stocks. I’m watching pharmacy stocks, food related stocks and I can’t catch a break. They are all going up and outside my buy orders. But I refuse to move my price point. I want more BMY but it’s up 35% from what I last paid. I suppose that makes up for losses on my preferred’s
Libero
High div, low P/E Value stocks
Market is in a major rotation from Growth to Value
Westie-
All I can think of is to ask you, “And how many days is this rotation going to last?” LOL
Everything happens much faster than it used to. I don’t think the stock market can function without growth leading. Sometimes it needs to be repriced.
Canada is halting imports from Smithfield Foods SFD, the largest US pork producer. Canada is targeting SFD’s largest plant in North Carolina. The news came as the US announced 250% tariffs on Canadian dairy products. The USDA says the halt is not tariff retaliation, just a “temporary suspension” by Canada. The USDA and SFD are looking to talk. The market will sort this out on Monday. SFD got a pump from the big brokers after its quiet period then drifted lower. It is off about 10% since its IPO.
Trade war targeting is getting better this time around. The Chinese took aim at CHS in farm country with its retaliatory tariffs. Companies are getting sharper too, Hershey HSY, while trying to corner the market in cocoa (90,000 tons) in January, may also avoid future tariffs too.
Not really looking to add any retail food companies right now. Ag may offer some opportunities. JMO. DYODD.
Bear I hadn’t heard anything about CHS but I did see something about China is now slapping tariffs on Canada also
China targeted CHS with some sort of restriction. (“suspension of soybean export qualifications to China”) Its hard to find a detailed US discussion among the headline news. If you want The Party Line (literally), it is below. I haven’t abandoned ship on CHS. Farmers are pretty good at getting through tough times. Also, a bailout is expected just like last time. Oil tariff impact is tbd. Don’t know about China-Canada, but lumber and dairy have been long-time US-Canada disputes. IMHO. JMO. DYODD.
“…the GAC announced the suspension of soybean export qualifications to China for three US companies, including CHS Inc., LOUIS DREYFUS COMPANY GRAINS MERCHANDISING LLC, and EGT LLC, due to recent detections of ergot and seed-coated soybeans in imported US soybeans….The move is based on the country’s food safety law…to protect the health of Chinese consumers and ensure the safety of imported grain… ”
http://en.people.cn/n3/2025/0305/c90000-20284648.html
Bear,
“Something is rotten in the state of Denmark” University Of Wisconsin.
https://pddc.wisc.edu/2015/07/23/ergot/#:~:text=Use%20crops%20that%20are%20not,be%20more%20susceptible%20to%20infection.
Soybeans are in the pea / legume family, not in the grains family.
Maybe processed on the same machinery for oils that grains are processed on?
Fascinating info and a great find. Suggests China could back away here without looking like it is backing down once the technical issue is fixed. (A Clorox wipe on the equipment and a standard disclosure like “soybeans processed on machinery that also processes rye.” )
OT – Not rotten in Denmark, but in Norway and France. There is a history on ergot going back to the Middle Ages and up to the 50’s in France. Say “ergot” to any 60’s Hippie and he will say LSD. Ergot causes hallucinations and is the main ingredient in LSD. It also causes nasty side effects. JMO. DYODD.
Raising my hand.
Any focus on Corn / Wheat products. Both been down recently with all the T-News.
Saw an interesting item over weekend on WEAT ( Wheat focused ETF ).
A Chinese company owns Smithfield. So, Canada is hurting China ?
Venture Global VG a recent IPO touted as a bet on the booming US LNG export market announced an expansion at one of its projects, making it the largest project in North America. VG was down a bit today after earlier news of cost over-runs at that project. JMO. DYODD.