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6/19/2025
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Frontline FRO is a popular shipping company. Frontline’s tanker, Front Eagle, was involved in a collision with the Adalynn in the Straits of Hormuz. Both vessels caught fire. First Eagle’s crew got the fire under control. Adalynn’s didn’t. Accidents do happen. Its gets interesting from there.
Frontline was unable to find the owner of the Adalynn, whose address is reportedly in an “older office complex in Mumbai” with a lot of tenants and no public directory. The owner looks like a shell company with two aging tankers operating in the shadowy Russian oil dark trade.
I hope FRO paid the extra dollar for the “uninsured motorist rider” on their insurance policy. There are pros and cons to investing in shipping. JMO. DYODD.
https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-front-eagle-incident/
Is the battery in your crude oil price-predicting crystal ball getting tired? Many seasoned investors remember various oddball stock market indicators. (Short Skirts, Magazine Covers.) Today, they are called Open Source Intelligence, OSINT.
– The Pentagon Pizza Indicator was a new one to me. I learned about it in a funny story on The Other Website. There is an app for it these days.
— It has quite a history, going back to the Cold War. (“Pentagon’s secret “pizza meter” accurately predicted 21 global crises since 1983”) By chance (?), that article appeared just a day before the Iran-Israel war broke out and was discussed on Reddit.
– A TOWS commenter suggested looking instead at the huge spike in volume of a certain oil ETF starting on June 5, a week before the war. I did. All I can say is “Yikes.” USOI UBS ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN
– A surprise attack? The UK Maritime authority had issued a warning to shippers in the Red Sea about an imminent outbreak of war two days before hostilities. (Reuters, June 11)
— The “party line” from official government sources is often positive-spin PR and can be misleading. Also, ahem, it seems like some traders do own a lot of “lucky pennies.” IMHO, OSINT sources shouldn’t be dismissed out-of-hand. LA Port traffic is suddenly topic of interest. JMO. DYODD.
So Bear, were we ahead of the game talking about West coast port traffic a couple of weeks ago.
Way off topic … re the Schwab SSE switch over to think ….
Long time user of SSE, therefore very familiar with the old tool.
Finding that the think platform is tough to learn …. I don’t use / need options or futures products.
When I call in for help, seems to be dice roll on true assist for simple questions …. such as why Preferreds can’t get taken on my Watch List.
Or can’t seem to edit ( add or delete common stk symbols on Watch List.
I have been with Schwab for decades, and am not leaving.
Have any III folks found a way to get 10 to 20 minutes of a think/swim pro that is truly aware of the most used SSE tools ( that I cannot seem to access). Maybe they aren’t part of the new product.
My basic one page SSE screen set up was = Watch List ….. Alerts …. Chart …..Trade Window . Thanks …. way off the wall post. . . just wondered of others suggestions …… Jim
STZ making a new selloff low today and breaking support from the Oct 2020 major low. The div looks too low to support the stock price. An importer. My nearby target guess is 150. I have no plans to buy STZ and have no clue where it’s headed.
“Constellation Brands, Inc. is an American producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits. A Fortune 500 company, Constellation is the largest beer import company in the US, measured by sales, and has the third-largest market share of all major beer suppliers.”
Rocks I was always led to believe alcohol was recession proof. But looking at what is happening to wineries going out of business out here and the same with beer breweries nationwide. The tariffs are hurting businesses that are importers and exporters. Think Canadian whiskey.
I told you about a local English pub I went to that was out of several imported beers and their distributor was saying containers shipments were stuck in New York for maybe 10 weeks.
Brown Forman took a hit last week also. BF.B
from finviz: Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B) has reported weak fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, wherein the bottom and top lines missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and declined year over year. Quarterly results were hurt by a tepid macroeconomic landscape, including softening consumer demand. Moving ahead, management still expects the persistent headwinds. Weak sales for the tequila portfolio and sluggishness across the Travel Retail channel acted as deterrents.
Brown-Forman’s shares fell nearly 18% on disappointing fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results and a dull outlook for fiscal 2026. This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s shares have lost 23.4% in the past three months against the industry’s 1.7% growth.
Yeah furcal, I passed on the Johnny Walker Blue label I saw at Costco yesterday.
I looked at the wine business a while back. I was surprised to read that wine is going out of favor with younger people. Wine was such a boomer favorite. A recent news story,
“Wine sales drying up as Americans turn elsewhere. U.S. wine sales continued a multiyear decline in 2024, which experts attribute to shifting demographics, health concerns, new competition and economic forces.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/data-shows-wine-decline-consumers-spending-less-drinking-less-rcna187628
JMO. DYODD.
Was steak and wine, now burger and beer? I never expected the lowly hamburger to become so culturally popular. In the 1950s if you wanted burgers, you grilled them at home.
I grew upin the fifties. The iconic American dish was the hot dog, not the hamburger.
JBS has been doing good since I mentioned it.
On this page you can look at historical data for price, EPS and p/e on the same chart for a stock. Here’s one for AMD:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/pe-ratio
I saw an article title suggesting AMD was moving into NVDA’s space. Could be. There’s more to NVDA than boards. With a current p/e of 75, AMD would have to double earnings to get p/e down to a less airy 37.5. I’m not holding my breath, but I don’t know much.
Ha ha…AMD +8% this morning.
ADM +8 in 2 days, holla!
I bought a little PFE in Nov at 25, which now has a YOC of 6.9%. The April low was 20.92, and today PFE made a higher high at 24.85 in the recovery rally. Looks pretty good with an attractive yield. I have no guess on price.
JBSAY looks like it is in limbo today at both Schwab and Fidelity. In the middle of a changeover to possibly new listing on the New York Stock Exchange as JBS. Neither broker will accept new orders.
Yep neither does Merrill. On the other hand i have been watching and waiting for Dollarama, DLMAF to give me an entry point but it keeps chugging along.
I had to look it up Al, I had never heard of it.
I can see PCG much lower at 11ish. After the Covid low, PCG traded between roughly 8.3 and 13.2 for two years. The center of that range is about 11. Not a prediction.
PCG has a boatload of perpetuals with five currently callable and three uncallable, including PCG-A with the highest coupon at 6%. PCG-A has been in a downtrend since Sep and will likely make a new closing low today with CY > 7%.
EIX is already below its similar post-Covid range.
The SRE selloff low was in the middle of its similar post-Covid range.
Rocks I picked up a couple hundred of the PCG-PA last couple days with a 7% yield on cost. Maybe moving in sympathy with EIX having its recent problems.
Charles…help me out here. If you’re going to buy the debt in PCG what is your thinking in buying something like PCG-A which is lower in the stack than the corp bonds? This is a non callable issue. If I look at the 4/01/2053 bond (694308KK2) it has a coupon of 6.7% and is trading at par. Anything 30 years out is comparable to a non callable preferred is it not? The bond would seem to be easier to sell if necessary and there’s no possible pause on coupon payments like in a preferred. Is it the few tenths extra yield? Trying to understand the thinking.
Richard, just for me it seems to be a little more liquid than a bond. It’s cumulative and quarterly payments compared to semi- annual. Fidelity requires a $25,000 minimum order if a bond is not in their inventory. To be honest I didn’t look, but I did look at Fidelity’s corporate bond offerings this morning and I don’t feel comfortable going past 2034 with the rates being offered right now until I get a better feeling for where the economy and rates are going.
SJM down big on earnings report. I have projection (voodoo) targets from the 2023 and 2025 highs with the same target 88.60, where the yield would be 4.9% with the current dividend. Would that be a buy? I have no fundamental knowledge other than enjoying Smucker’s jam in the 1950s.
Why does the market dislike this company? I can see it’s not a growth stock and the dividend yield might need to be higher to make it a value stock.
I’m only able to look back to early 2001, but SJM has blown completely through its highest yield during that stretch. It’s a few yrs from being 50 years of consecutive dividend increases, SA shows dividend payout ratio around 41%. Buy backs ahead, this company is very shareholder friendly. Going to give this one a hard look.
pig,
I was also considering the same thing earlier. It does not seem like a terrible company. I buy some of their products. I see others purchasing them as well.
My main concern is jumping in too early. WHR for example was pounded down over time and settled into this low range for weeks. SJM the pounding just started. I doubt it will get this serious bounce back up right away. It is just not exciting enough for that with no catalyst people can possibly see a year or two from now.
So my gut says to just wait for closer to 90 per share. Which knowing me.. means it is a screaming buy right this second and will rebound 7% tomorrow.
fc, yes well said, it really is pretty tough to determine if something is oversold on days like this, much safer to let things play out to see if its just temporary tariff thing or a real sustained threat to EPS over time. Obviously would much prefer to buy things cheaper than the day/week/month before. Not looking for trade as much as long term hold on these types of things though. Nice trade on WHR, I will keep my longer term and let it play out but yes tempting as it’s up like 16%+ in 5 weeks. Unusual for sure.
If I had to guess institutional buyers are most likely upset with that Hostess purchase not giving the growth they expected, increased debt to buy it, and now coffee (and others) margins being pressured. Just a bunch of items all at once causing all estimates of earnings to be tossed out the window. I think they wanted to see SJM closer to 11 bucks per year in earnings in 2026-2027 and now 9.x-10.0 are being mentioned. The growth is just gone. Poof.
Now stores have their own brands, people buying healthier choices (a negative for Hostess), and premium products are a tough sell in a possible slow down of the economy I can see this company going lower. Not by a lot mind you but below 90 is a real possibility as the reality sinks in and the buyers hoping for a quick bounce get disappointed.
WHR on the other hand.. had enough time to pass that it was pretty obvious there was quite a bit of support below 80 that it would not go down much further if nothing got worse. I am just not sure about WHR’s dividend. I do not feel that is a safe payout ratio for them. I definitely would not count on it if things drag out for a year or two.
SJM down +/-15% in one day.
Ouch.
Out of WHR at 87.
10 bucks profit per share after a few weeks is just too tempting. That is like 11-12% gain on a name I expected to struggle upwards over time. Not jump. I will get back in if it goes down to say < 80. Wild market in my view. Swings galore. Could it all be due to that recent article on bloomberg I think it was? Some shares I bought even caught that recent dividend.
Getting back to utes CEF GUT, here’s a weekly log chart that captures the volatility. The downtrend from the 2022 highs can be attributed to rising interest rates.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/WjUQRRIF/
Here’s a daily chart for the period from the Oct 2023 low. What I missed before is the pattern of price moves between below 5 and above 6. Is price going back up to 6+ again? Forget fundamentals, NAV, etc. If traders want to play this game, why not?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/E2BIKPVc/
I know some of you own WHR. This is from this week’s Barron’s:
Any U.S. stocks you like?
Here is a name that’s higher risk, but when I think about it on a risk-adjusted return basis, it’s also very, very high reward. This is Whirlpool, which has fallen about 32% year to date. It has about $4 billion of market cap. I would call it a small-cap at this point—with a 9% dividend, which indicates that the dividend is at risk.
And yet it isn’t subject to a lot of tariff risk. They produce 80% of their products—all the so-called white goods, like washing machines—in the U.S., with the remainder split between Asia and Mexico.
Now, they do face the risk that the U.S. economy will slow. If we go into a prolonged economic slump, that is going to be tough for the stock. But Whirlpool has opportunities, too. They have been struggling with the housing market. U.S. housing turnover is at 30-year-lows. But we think that will turn around. When we get through this tariff uncertainty, that will make employers more confident, which should be helpful. And cities around the country are now thinking very carefully about how they can solve housing shortages.
Meanwhile, Whirlpool also has one largest new product slates they’ve had in a decade. They’ve got some debt, but we expect them to be able to generate cash flow to repay that debt. As the debt comes down, the equity value should improve considerably.
It’s a deep value stock. It currently trades at a mid- to high-single digit P/E multiple, and we expect only a modest multiple increase. But our investment thesis assumes this heavily indebted company will grow earnings 25% in two years from 2025 levels. We think it can lead to a total return of 70%.
On one line they say they have some debt, then the next line says they are heavily indebted. I held some but sold as I am waiting for a housing recovery. A housing recovery depends on several things, interest rates, the economy and the jobs market and of course the tariffs.
Thanks for posting Rocky!!! I have this one, bought a few times $77 and some at $76.
Please watch this video in full https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCh1lV3QLeI
In summary, the presenter believes the stock market is rigged if you look at the SP500 performance over a long term period. Ditto for housing price too. I think he is right. The Federal reserve targets inflation at 2%. Too high is not good and they try to avoid getting close to zero inflation or worse, negative inflation (deflation). Our national debt continue to rise exponentially.
Read some of the comments but wondering what folks here think about the possibility of US SP500 behaving like Japan Nikkei 225 index which hasn’t surpassed the peak convincingly since Dec 1989. Perhaps Japan situation is different due to demographics issue? At some point, will US face aging population? Ok by then I won’t be around to know it, lol.
After buying DNP in March with a CY of 8%, I started poking around in the CEF space and ran into GUT, another utilities CEF with a much higher CY. So I grabbed some of that in April, CY 11.45%. Why did I even bother with DNP?
Then I looked at both at cefconnect. Here’s GUT:
https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/GUT
Oh no! GUT trades at a ridiculous premium to NAV, and NAV has been in a major downtrend for years. Death by NAV is on tombstones in the CEF graveyard, as I learned. Now of all things, the price and premium have increased since my purchase, and I have a 6% gain.
Would anyone care to explain GUT to me?
I hold a bunch of closed end funds but several things would keep me out of GUT. First is the 79% premium, next is cefconnect showing the distribution at roughly 80% return of capital. I’m willing to take some return of capital as many (most?) CEFs seem to use some amount. But 80%?
rocks2stocks, I cannot explain GUT to you. But, you should also note that GUT’s monthly distribution is approximately 80% return on capital (and it has been for the last several years)–this may or may not be bad. It also has about 20% leverage. These two factors may explain some of the price drop.
My long term CEF utility play is UTG. Currently priced in the $34/35 range with a 6.5% yield. Price is high, but it has been below $30. The majority of the distribution is L.T. capital gains–not sure how long they can keep this up. It uses about 18% leverage. I also like the utilities that it holds.
I get most of my exposure to utilities by owning closed end funds UTF, UTG and BUI. Saves me the trouble of trying to understand and follow all those individual companies.
It’s a few days past one year since I bought $5 each of 19 SPX stocks selected for their long-term chart performance. They’ve outperformed SPY on a total return basis by 47%, +20.3% compared to +13.8%. One takeaway: SPX contains enough dross that just avoiding it is a win.
The big winners:
AVGO +97%
NFLX +92%
BKNG +48%
META +45%
ISRG +39%
AJG +35%
COST +31%
NVDA +28%
AXP +26%
The big losers:
UNH -40%
AMD -29%
When I want to own stocks for growth, I avoid the index which contains a bunch of also-fans.. That’s why I prefer SCHG. Look at a comparison chart of SPY vs SCHG. Ridiculous outperformance over time.
Picked up a small starter position today in JBSAY probably my luck with most common I have been buying it will go down from here. In doing a little research, I was surprised to see it owned a large position in Pilgrim Pride.
News said there hasn’t been any major reports of avian flu the last 4 months.
Someone of a technical bent might see a head and shoulders top on the chart and might wonder if the big March gap up will fill. Bears everywhere.
You know rocks I always like hearing from you. Any thoughts you have to offer?
My thinking is we have about 4 weeks to find out.
— An interesting choice. I figure the food producers will come out okay when the tariffs shake out because everybody needs food. Some to eat it, others to produce it. China needs pork and soybeans. Japan needs rice. Nobody needs another steel mill.
— Re: news. There was an outbreak of avian flu in Arizona that wiped out a major family farm operation. There is a tension between farmers about vaccine use in chickens but for once its not Red versus Blue. It is the broiler faction versus the layer faction. The meat from vaccinated broiler chickens is hard to export. The egg farmer explains it here:
“Hickman’s Family Farms loses 95% of birds to avian flu. ”
https://www.feedstuffs.com/agribusiness-news/hickman-s-family-farms-loses-95-of-birds-to-avian-flu
FWIW – I haven’t done any research on why but it seems to me that egg farmers are suffering much bigger flock losses than the “meat” farmers, the Pilgrim’s Pride end of the business. A lot of press and political attention on egg prices but nobody is complaining about missing their Chick-fil-A, Popeyes fried or Costco roasters. JMO. DYODD.
Bear on Yahoo this afternoon there was a tictoc video of a girl in a grocery store in China. I have a feeling it was propaganda. But she was saying China has shifted to buying beef from Australia and probably pork from Brazil and at $7.00 equal a lb. for the beef.
She showed the package label from Australia and said it used to be labeled USA. She said to her the taste was better and doesn’t see a reason for China to go back to buying from the US.
At different times in history like the gold rush in California and building the transcontinental railroad it was the suppliers of food and materials that made more than most of the miners.
AQN – An update came out today and stock is up +12% right now in response…… In looking at the headlines, I think it’s obvious they’ve been watching Ken Fisher’s TV ads….
“OAKVILLE, Ontario–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (“AQN”, “Algonquin” or the “Company”) (TSX: AQN) (NYSE: AQN) today announced its “Back to Basics” utility customer-centric capital plan focused on improving customer experience, driving operational efficiencies, and achieving constructive regulatory outcomes. As part of that plan, the Company released its financial outlook for 2025 through 2027.
Algonquin will evaluate key decisions in the context of its commitments to its four key stakeholders:
First and foremost, delivering outcomes and experiences to customers in the moments that matter to them;
Investing in the communities we serve to foster economic growth. WE DO WELL WHEN OUR COMMUNITIES DO WELL;
Becoming an employer of choice to sustain a motivated workforce; and
Delivering steady predictable returns for investors through focused utility execution and capital discipline.”
I’m surprised the CEO didn’t declare, “I like fishing!” LOL
I own AQNB – no word of whether or not they have plans to call – maybe they’ll update in the CC….. Previously they’ve left impression they were not considering it until 2029, but there have been many changes in structure and personnel since then, so who knows?
Like you, I have expected AQNB to be called and pontificated that it would be several times. Happy to continue to own it. Agree 2029 was what they initially projected, perhaps we will get lucky and it does not get called.
Anyone have either of these 2? Viper (VNOM) is buying Sitio Royalties (STR). STR is up 13+% at the moment; VNOM up a few percent. Have been a long time holder of Brigham Minerals, which ultimately became Sitio Royalties. Definitely up there with one of my better investments. K1 fun.
I have held VNOM in the past.
I have a friend in the oil industry in Houston. He always speaks highly of VNOM, both their acreage and setup with Diamondback Energy.
I listened to an earnings call or two, they seem thoughtful.
Congrats on STR! I play SJT from time to time, but sold recently for a profit.
I own vnom and fang. I’m slightly underwater, but I’m content with both of them as I think they will do much better unless with get a bad recession. Even then, they are quality companies and will survive a bad time and eventually do quite well.
This week-end, OPEC decides how much to increase its July oil output. OPEC has recently increased monthly production by larger (3x) than expected amounts. The official story: OPEC is punishing a rogue member for pumping too much oil (thus keeping prices down) … by pumping even more oil and pushing prices even lower. A small mention: OPEC wants to increase market share. Reuters now reports that OPEC is discussing pushing its July output even higher than 411,000 bpd.
The real casualty will be the US shale oil industry, a rival of OPEC and long in its cross-hairs. US shale becomes increasingly unprofitable at prices below 60. A story link below discusses production and pricing. Sentiment: long energy, bearish. JMO. DYODD.
A pivotal OPEC+ decision this weekend could tank crude-oil prices by 10%
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-pivotal-opec-decision-this-weekend-could-tank-crude-oil-prices-by-10-d389a6ff?mod=home_ln
OPEC+ agrees July oil output hike of 411,000 bpd.
Thanks!
Does J. Powell know about this deflationary news?
Wake up Jay…and start cutting those rates!
I picked up RMT yesterday, which is a CEF investing in small cap value stocks. Quarterly yield of about 8.7%. Selling at -13% discount and a -1 year Z score. DYODD
instead of index options, like qqqx, they are writing on the individual stocks in their portfolio, which has a similar flavor to the Berkshire portfolio
I recently started a position in the Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF from VistaShares, ticker (OMAH). The fund mirrors the top 20 holdings of BRK.B and adds an options strategy to generate income. The fund seeks to achieve 15% annual income paid out monthly.
https://www.vistashares.com/etf/omah/
Seems like an interesting way to invest like the Buffet crew and earn some income along the way. OMAH is down about 4% since its inception in early March while paying out ~2.5% in dividends. Next ex-date is in a few days.
OMAH has been on my watch list since its inception. I like their portfolio a lot and the idea of writing options for added income. (I almost did an impulse buy.)
I clicked around the OMAH website but could not find a specific explanation of what they are actually doing other than generally “writing options.” Many other cc ETFs (except JEPI) are more forthcoming in disclosing what kind of options they are writing (ATM, OTM) and how much of their portfolio they are overwriting. I’ll continue watching OMAH until it has a longer a track record. JMO. DYODD.
instead of index options, like qqqx, they are writing on the individual stocks in their portfolio, which has a similar flavor to the Berkshire portfolio