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2022 Kickoff–Monday Morning Kickoff

Well here we go into what is potentially a year filled with land mines in the form of increasing interest rates. Of course this statement has been made many times in the last decade by myself and the talking heads on the boob tube. As a number of folks have commented in the last year–watch what the Fed does, not what they say. Will Powell do another about face and become dovish when we get the next inflation number? Will he backpedal when equity markets tumble 10% in a week? Nothing is known for certain–we’ll just all have to wait and see.

Last week the S&P500 rose once again with a gain of just less than 1% closing at 4766. This morning the futures market is up over 1/2%–will it hold – no one knows of course.

The 10 year treasury closed last week at 1.51% which was up 2 basis points from the previous Friday’s close. Interest rates are trading a couple more basis points higher this morning at 6 A.M.

The Federal Reserve balance sheet grew once again on the week–this time by $34 billion. That is a 2 week growth of $126 billion and December growth of $140 billion. NOTE that the FED is a week behind in updating number because of the holidays. This number is about timing and we should see a big slowdown in this growth soon with tapering.

The average $25/share preferred stock and baby bond rose by 11 cents last week. Banks rose by 9 cents, investment grade issues by 14 cents and mREIT preferreds by 11 cents and shipping preferreds by 7 cents. December is a big ex dividend month and likely we have some bounce back from ex-dividend dates.

Last week once again last week we have no new issues in the baby bond and preferred stock arena. We should see issuance get back to a more normal pace this week.

16 thoughts on “2022 Kickoff–Monday Morning Kickoff”

  1. Well what ship show! This time looks like the dot plots might actually have ‘some’ validity. I’m 50% in cash and have several big accounts heavy in mmacct. Buying into the big 5 might just end up working. But hey I’m such a genius i was near 50% all last year! Basically the thought of the tulip bubble haunts me.

    WHO could have ever forecasted 8 TRILLION in QE????

  2. Tim, is there is something wrong with the share loss / gain spreadsheet? I checked a few preferred’s and the prices are way off?

    1. yes the quotes are not correct. for example UBP-H. It appears stuck. This page is my 1st go-to in the AM to see if anything looks ‘good’ I believe Gridbird also uses the page a lot so if you can look into it, would be appreciated for sure. Bea

      1. Bea, It seemed to quit working for me for the past week or so. I was hoping someone would “complain”, ha!

        1. OK, I’ll admit it – I have no clue where to find this page on III…. I guess some day I ought to familiarize myself with EVERYTHING that’s available here….. Even if it’s presently broken get me started, please……

          1. yes it is still frozen from an old quote day perhaps?? 12/20/21, it references UBP-H as 25.49 when it is trading at about 25.84 I think..

            2WR- if you click the PREFERRED tab at the top (actually click thru not just hover) after Tim’s explanation you will see options and it is the 1st or 2nd one…pfd sorted by gain/loss.

            IMO it is the MOST important page here, followed by HOME, Reader Alerts and Sandbox. How I read daily anyway..

            Grib, JB/AZ, 2WR– best to you, Tim and all folks here in 2022..hope the volatility continues and the FED and markets give us some good opportunities!! Bea

            1. Thanks Bea – I see the page now…. appreciate the help and the kind wishes… Best to you and all III’ers for a healthy ’22 both physically, and financially.

              1. thank you… I wonder if some stink bids are in order today w FED minutes coming out later..any big surprises in them or mkt reaction might give an opportunity. Have to scan my lists. B

          1. Thats all I can do well, Tim, because I sure am not a techie…In fact, I got locked out of my Treasury Direct account this morning trying to put my beneficiary in, not answering my security question correctly. That wasnt any fun waiting forever and a day to talk to a rep to unlock my account.
            My daughter better just hope I dont die for a while, because I am not going in there again for a long time.

            1. Grid–a month ago I tried to set up a treasury direct account and the system wouldn’t let me–said I already had an account and I would have to call them—didn’t want to deal with it so I didn’t–yet.

    I Look forward to reading your wisdom. You have a great web site been following it for years.
    Thanks for keeping us informed.

    1. Thanks Jeff–glad you have been around that long. Have a healthy new year (health is the most important) and of course a prosperous year as well.

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