Well let’s get back to a normal week–whatever a normal week is. Anymore there really are no trading days that are ‘normal’ as we would have defined it 20 years years ago. Everyday there is some sort of economic news that has the potential to move markets–OR recently a simple proposed appointment of a particular person for Treasury secretary moves interest rates sharply lower. Oh well such is life–we just have to deal with it!
Last week the S&P500 moved up by 1.1% which once again puts stocks at new highs. It seems that stocks would be overbought–but these things can take months and months to play out and with the availability of cash in money markets ($6-7 trillion) and CDs if a time arrives when rates plug below 4% stocks could go parabolic. Who knows for sure? No one!
Interest rates moved lower and lower all week long. The 10 year treasury yield closed at 4.18% which was about 24 basis points lower than the close the previous Friday. Economic news on the week was pretty much on forecast and there was no economic news that logically caused the interest rate plunge–leading me to conclude that investors are now trading on politics. Well since politics are off limits here I will move on. We’ll see if this situation reverses this week with ADP employment on Wednesday and the official government employment report on Friday.
The Fed balance sheet fell by about $18 billion last week–now solidly below $7 trillion at $6.905 trillion.
The average $25/share preferred and baby bond rose last week by 12 cents–a seemingly small gain for a week where the 10 year treasury yield tumbled by 24 basis points–but given that I have preferreds overvalued by 2-3% this isn’t such a surprise. Investment grade issues rose by 15 cents, banking issues rose a strong 21 cents, CEF preferreds rose a dime, mREIT preferreds were up 8 cents and shippers were flat with last week.
Last week we have RiverNorth/Doubleline Strategic Opportunity Fund (OPP) issue a new 6% term preferred as the result of a rights offering. Details are limited, but more info is forethcoming.
PGE did a big new issue
I had read yesterday BOJ is considering raising their interest rates due to a strong yen and low inflation compared to other world economies. Current rate of .25% doesn’t sound like much but they said up to an additional 1% hike could be possible.
Charles
There is a LONG history of the BOJ controlling the interest rate on the yen.
For years the BOJ has kept the short-term rate at or below .25%
The yen/dollar arbitrage (borrow in yen, invest in T-Bills) has been a money-making machine for hedge funds, generating billions in profits. The key has been the hedging cost for the yen/dollar.
Betting the yen will rise vs the dollar is called “the widow-maker” because it has long been imminent…….
and never happened.
The longstanding governor for the BOJ who pledged the interest rate would not rise retired. The new governor has pledged a more flexible position.
He says……..
maybe….. soon…..
A HUGE trading arena.
BOJ – low interest rates, stalling economy, low jobs growth. (Should be trying to stimulate).
Problem – Majority of energy (natural gas/oil) needs to be imported and paid for in US dollars. Japan currency has devalued significantly (100:1 to 150:1) causing energy and material inputs for industry to become expensive.
Short Term fix – defend the YEN by selling off US Treasury reserves. This plan is unsustainable. Require raising interest rates to boost YEN vs US dollar to balance economy.
Low YEN matched with increasing BOJ interest rates is a double pow. For the greedy institutions that where using short term floaters to finance carry trade they will of already be flushed out.
One of the biggest challenges Japan faces (besides a shrinking/aging population) is a massive savings rate.
Japanese women (and it is mostly women who manage household finances) are taught from a young age to save. And they do. The government has tried for decades to get consumers to increase spending, but the massive balance in bank savings just hangs on.
It certainly makes the financial system very different to manage from the US’.
I just saw a blurb that US credit card debt is up again more than expected (approaching $1.2T) and other debt isn’t looking good either. https://archive.ph/1Dv06 (I know the data is available elsewhere, but I came across this today)