Equity markets are kind of treading water today–moving in a pretty tight range. There seems to be a lot of tension building as we await further economic news–in particular the official government news on employment on Friday. Early today we had ADP announce their employment numbers and they came in somewhat stronger than the expectation at 143,000 new jobs against the forecast of 120,000 and last months 103,000 actual. Now of course with the dock workers strike we have the potential to see muddy numbers in the weeks ahead–not just from the striking workers but from those in the supply chain that will be laid off if this strike lasts very long.
Also, of course, we are awaiting news out of the Mideast on the war front. Historically these wars do not cause stocks to fall–many times quite the opposite happens. Whether that holds true this time is anyone’s guess. Well we just have to wait and see as none of us has a perfect crystal ball.
Not buying anything today or likely tomorrow–maybe the rest of the week. I took a look at CD rates a bit ago and the best rate on a 3 month issue was 4.55% on eTrade–that is down almost 1/2% from where it was a month ago. I took a look at the money market I use (Gabelli US Treasury–GABXX) and it remains at 5.06%-slowly drifting lower, but not a bad cash alternative for the moment.
Preferreds and baby bonds are like everything else today and pretty flat–some up a bit and some down a bit. The 10 year treasury remains locked in a range of 3.7 to 3.8%–almost surely to be pushed one way or another with employment numbers.
As I do everyday–I look for ‘deals’ and right now true deals are tough to find at least those that I am comfortable. Maybe we will see some deals in the ocean shippers with the dock strike–but not today–just a nickel or dime movement–we’ll see.
Tim,
What are you talking about? I feel like I’m in Shangri-la. Things couldn’t be better. Even when things don’t correlate or make sense, its a good thing.
The Gabelli MMF was a good choice. IMHO, the Gabelli fund is holding up better than some other MMFs because it is positioned in 1-5 month Treasuries, with about 39% in one months. Its focus on T-bills under 1-year makes it less rate-drop quick sensitive than the Fidelity or Vanguard settlement MMF funds, both of which have large chunks in overnight funds. A slower run-off.
The low expense ratio, below Vanguard and well below Fidelity, is a plus. As rates continue to fall, Fidelity’s high expenses become more visibly annoying. (Hey buddy, isn’t that 10% of my return you’re taking?)
https://gab-factsheets.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2Q24GabelliUSTreasuryMoneyMarket
JMO. DYODD.
Has anyone seen a comparison between ADP and establishment data for jobs after all subsequent corrections? Are they close?
I am starting to accept 5.85% for the illiquid utes we know about here. Just do not have the patience to put in multiple bids slightly above the ask and wait for 0.05-0.15% more. Especially when I am looking to buy < 100 shares. Taking very small bites of bank preferred to round up odd lots here and there while a few deals remain.
Kind of amazing how much of a difference 6 months can make.