In a couple hours we have the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) number being released and the forecast is for the number (year over year) to come in a little hot. At this point in time any number cooler or hotter than forecast can move markets quite a lot and certainly set the tone for the day. The 10 year treasury yield is down 2 basis points at 4.52%–would be nice to get a PCE number that starts to send the yield back lower.
The S&P500 futures are off about 3/4% at this moment. I believe that this is caused by what is a continual inability of Congress to get their act together and the rejection of the latest CR (continual resolution) last night. As I mentioned yesterday any sign that Congress is serious about cutting spending will be met positively by markets–while business as usual will be punished.
I was noting yesterday that real estate investment trusts (REITs) have been getting slammed–really slammed. The most followed REIT ETF the Vanguard Real Estate Index (VNQ) closed below the year ago level after being up 10-12% just a few weeks ago. As most of you know Brad Thomas created his own REIT ETF in the spring–the net asset value (NAV) yesterday closed 1% below the original issuance price–it goes to show that in investing there are no ‘magic’ formulas and prices move on more factors than fundamentals–if it was that easy we would all be billionaires.
I have been pondering the future–not the next 10 years, but the next 6 months to a year and will have my thoughts on interest rates to publish soon. Recall that I thought the 10 year Treasury yield would fall this year into the fall and then we would see them rise as Congress continued to spend like crazy. In a blind squirrel moment I was correct–probably I won’t have this level of lucky guessing again, but I really need a level of comfort in my own thoughts in order to move forward with my own allocations. Right now I am guessing my 7% target is at risk–I might have to realistically reset to 6%–we’ll see.
Tim ,, Finally ….some Bargains…all the top preferred “s stocks up $26 -27.,,, Did- not stop buying,, Georges
I put in a starter bid for some MDIV. Holds a diversified pool of income producing assets. With Fidelity’s new regime I’m buying mostly ETFs and not individual securities.
Rocky, Why does it have a variable dividend payout?
Might be a managed payout based on monthly NAV to reach certain percent, but I don’t see it in their literature.
Many ETFs have variable payouts. I don’t know the exact reason but it probably has to do with the underlying securities and when they actually pay the fund. The variable rate dividend is more common with ETFs vs CEFs.
Makes sense, thanks Sir
REITS – funny you mention those as I stated nibbling there yesterday
Z–with a stable interest rate there is value there.
yeah unfortunately I will never be able to predict when rates stabilize or reverse lower, so best I can do is average in/buy and DRIP when prices seem to be more favorable from a long term perspective… I mean you can get 6%-ish yields on high quality reits here with maybe 75% payout ratios – problem is the equities have been proven to be a lot more volatile that one might expect – many down 20% in a few months (after rising maybe 15% in short order ahead of fed cuts).
I did a bit as well – entered REXR common at 41 and change – now down into the 37 range – just a small position of 200 shares. I did sell the Dec 25 45 calls against it for $3.00 each so that is softening the downside a bit. No other REITs except busted RLJ-A which I have a much larger position. Had it since 2017 and added substantially during covid in the 14s so a very low basis there.
Yazz, The A & B preferred I have lost capital gains since I didn’t sell but I am still collecting 7% on YOC
They may approach the 7% territory again, if so I would buy more.
I try to quit worrying about accounts dropping from all time highs and look to how the income is steady and increasing.
Funny Yazz, most of the 2.2% drop in value has come from common stocks I have bought so I am in good company.
I am similar, CM in that equity amounts are more secondary to income. I do like to position to have equity gains as well – at least to stay level as I collect divvy/interest. But, investments ebb and flow so, really no biggie. That feeling is eased because of SS and my NASA pension providing me with a decent ‘floor’ on my income these days. As far as REXR – i may flip to the preferreds soon!
Yazz we just had a group of Alum of the Cal Techie’s up here doing their annual get to gather. I remember in high school classmates who wanted to go there to get involved with the astrophysics dept.