The job openings and labor turnover report (JOLTs) moved higher from last months report–and above forecast. It is interesting that with all the ‘gloom and doom’ talk we just are not seeing any major moves toward softening in the economy. Over the last year new jobs are hanging in there. Job creation is one of the most important numbers in my mind–with decent employment it will be tough to fall into recession.
I did see that the Atlanta Fed moved their GDPNow forecast WAY UP.
The forecast for the 2nd quarter is now 4.6%—up from 2.x% just a week ago. Something looks a little fishy with that move.
At the same time the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index continues to move slowly lower–now at 1.9% which is down from 2.1% the previous week.
I think the level of attention these forecasts deserve is almost none—moving a forecast up over 2% in a week only leads me to believe that they have too many economist at these Fed branches that are cranking out near worthless reports. Certainly room for some cost savings through job elimination.
So this afternoon I am looking to do a little buying–not much, maybe 1 issue. Don’t know what yet, but obviously shorter duration for sure. We’ll see.
Tim-
Yesterday you were waiting for info on work toward cutting debt, etc — now today with the Jolts & Atlanta Fed report, you’re ready to buy a little. Seems like a quick change in approach. I’d like to know how you are thinking about buying today vs not.
I see you bought back into RWAYZ today.
thanks
Makes you wonder about just exactly who is doing all the ‘doom and gloom’ talk and their motives, yes?
The many Ray Dalio’s of the world – the end is coming. Just take a look at the history of his predictions that never came true.
Nouriel Roubini – Dr. Doom – the end is always coming. Ditto for the Ray Dalio crowd.
They are all rainmakers calling for rain.
The list is loooooooooong.
Well, as a life-long pessimist, I’m very concerned about our huge debt, the high refinance rates for the maturing debt, the historical precedents for countries that fail to control their debt, and the fact that neither political party has the will to deal with it. Call me a rainmaker if you will, but the math presented by the bond vigilantes is pretty solid and intimidating, and a monthly JOLT report does not change that. Now, where did I put my umbrella and slicker?
I have been watching the upward revisions of GDP Now, only few days ago was 3.8%. Undoubtedly this is in large part to reduction in trade deficit but still WOW. When was last time we had GDP growing over 4%? I think per google last time 4.1% in 2018. Not predicting anything but just pleasant in view of the doom and gloom forecasters. Am awaiting the India-US deal and passage of tax bill to see how things then seem to be too.
FWIW did buy SYF-A, great divy hx. of common, and increase divy recently, Fitch recent upgrade too. Over 7.25% yield tax qualified distribution.
If Q1 GDP was a one-off due to unusual trade action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Q2 GDP be another one-off.
Hi Tim, I have been buying some QUALITY duration lately with AGM-E, MGR-B and BIP-H. The way I figure it, would rather own quality duration than junk for about the same yield. More worried about deflation when everyone is focused on inflation. Where was this worry 4 years ago?
Anyway, appreciated the tip yesterday on BIP-H.
Dan–I agree that if you have to hold something and are less concerned with potential capital losses there are many great options out there.
My thoughts exactly.
Dan; WHEW!!!!!!! Glad to see someone besides me owning AGM+E. I bought mine over 4 years ago and am underwater badly but plan on holding it. I wonder if there’s any chance of them calling it home in July when its callable. Probably not–lol.
Chuck welcome to the club. I hold both D & E just collecting the money. Thought of adding to my holdings with the drop.
You are not alone. I own tons of E and some F too. Very under water as well.
Charles M; I’ve spoken to their I R MGR numerous times over the last few years. She’s the sweetest gal you could ever find. Very helpful too.
I think you meant the baby bond BIPH. I don’t believe there is a preferred BIP-H.
Assume too, since it is a baby bond no K-1 to receive.
Tacitus,
You’re right, Tim was referring to the baby bond BIPH and there is no BIP-H preferred.
Acc to QOL, BIP has these related securities:
1. two preferreds (BIP-A 5.125% and BIP-B 5%), and
2. four baby bonds (BIPH 5%, BIPI 5.125%, and BIPJ 7.25%)
Tim’s comment:
“The Brookfield Infrastructure 5% BIPH issue is trading down at $15.99 for a current yield of 7.75%. This is an investment grade issue also.”