Nothing pre market today indicated that the S&P500 would be lower by 2.70% (right now), but markets are taking the administration seriously about getting rid of Fed Chairman Powell.
At about 9:40 a.m. (central) DJT tweeted–
“Preemptive Cuts” in Interest Rates are being called for by many. With Energy Costs way down, food prices (including Biden’s egg disaster!) substantially lower, and most other “things” trending down, there is virtually No Inflation. With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW. Europe has already “lowered” seven times. Powell has always been “To Late,” except when it came to the Election period when he lowered in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden, later Kamala, get elected. How did that work out?
And down equities go–more.
We can debate Powell all day long–good or bad–but these tweets could be ended, although that is not going to happen. In the end the uncertainty is what drives the markets and we have plenty of that to go around.
Interest rates are really not moving on DJT tweets–but right now the 10 year yield is up about 4-5 basis points. Preferreds and baby bonds are ever so slightly red–but really hardly moving. Let’s see what the afternoon brings.
Can we at least get a post today titled “Markets Grind Higher”? It seems like we only get posts if the market drops, but not many if the market rises right back the next day. If you zoom out on the S&P 500 for the last 5 years, what’s happening today is pretty much still a blip in the grand scheme.
Frankly, I look at the current market as one of the great opportunities that don’t come along very often. I’ve been making excellent money selling covered calls and secured puts, as well as strategically investing in stocks that have been beaten up, etc.
W99–good point. Could you share some real time trades you did today?
I’ve been selling secured puts on NVDA, QCOM, AAPL, and AMD. I generally target puts represetning 7-8% decline in prices via selling short on weekly puts. ROI of roughly 20-25%. They have all been beaten up, when I think their long term prospects are still solid.
Wolverine99—ok got it.
For classic IRA portfolios it might also be a good time to start looking at doing a Roth conversion of some of your biggest ‘on paper’ losers. I usually wait until the end of the year to employ this strategy, but given the recent market sell off that timetable moves up…ymmv.
Thanks Citadel. I started some of my annual Roth conversions over the last few weeks and will continue as opportunities emerge from stocks spiking down.
I was looking at an inherited IRA a friend got recently and it struck me how important Roth conversions are with the new(-ish) 10 year rule for inherited IRAs. Beneficiaries of inherited IRAs (traditional and roth) now have to take the full value within 10 years. With traditional IRAs, that can push them up into very high tax brackets for years, if the IRA is substantial.
Just one more piece of the math of passing on wealth.
Quality in posting isn’t just about quantity—it’s about impact. A strong indicator of quality “could be” posts that garner three or more likes, suggesting they resonate with others. Sure, I could sip wine and post endlessly, but that might lead to rambles rather than meaningful contributions. Prioritizing engagement over sheer volume ensures that each post adds value rather than just noise or a reason for us to skip. Give me a reason to not skip.
I personally have made a lot less money since Grid, Bob and others have gone dark.
Earlier today someone wrote: “Maybe I do post too much …”
+++++
Just the facts, in .CSV format, analyzing the 16,694 reader comments that have been posted here between 4:10 PM July 2, 2024 and 7:27 PM April 20, 2025, showing the top 50 posters, sorted by number of messages:
Poster Name, # of Messages, Percentage of Total
Charles M,1,764,10.5667%
rocks2stocks,944,5.6547%
2whiteroses,816,4.8880%
Gary,592,3.5462%
LT,545,3.2646%
losingtrader,496,2.9711%
Martin G,387,2.3182%
fc,371,2.2224%
mjtroll,333,1.9947%
mbg,316,1.8929%
BearNJ,314,1.8809%
Maine,302,1.8090%
pig pile,293,1.7551%
SteveA,281,1.6832%
Tim McPartland,234,1.4017%
Westie 18,231,1.3837%
Private,212,1.2699%
Yield Hunter,209,1.2519%
Bea,207,1.2400%
dj,181,1.0842%
Rocky_Mountain_Hiker,181,1.0842%
theta,168,1.0063%
Tex the 2nd,166,0.9944%
Dan,160,0.9584%
Nathan Kurz,157,0.9405%
Justin,146,0.8746%
If you Prefer,142,0.8506%
yazzer,140,0.8386%
danzeb,139,0.8326%
Innovative Income Investor,137,0.8207%
Dick Whitman,134,0.8027%
Scott R.,127,0.7608%
O. Chongusu,126,0.7548%
whidbey Islander,126,0.7548%
Newbie,125,0.7488%
legend.vs,122,0.7308%
Jim,120,0.7188%
ted,110,0.6589%
af,104,0.6230%
NewToThis2015,97,0.5810%
Azureblue,93,0.5571%
TNTowanda,91,0.5451%
ChuckP,81,0.4852%
david,79,0.4732%
Mark in CO,79,0.4732%
ken,78,0.4672%
NWGG,78,0.4672%
Landlord Investor,75,0.4493%
Jerrymac,72,0.4313%
Citadel West,71,0.4253%
Chart showing same info:
III comments by username (top 50, July 2, 2024 through April 20, 2025):
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RB8XqaV3X4zqPw88pA16pwyZPz7dpewo/view?usp=sharing
Whooo… in the top 10%.
Mea Culpa
Well, shut my mouth….
We all have our ways of spending time here, but I’m not doing stats or charts…yet
1,764 seems like a ton. Almost double the amount compared to 2nd place.
To be able to post such a prolific amount of comments and maintain the highest levels of quality (e.g. today’s post about shoe goop or the recent post about his trip to the grocery store) is a sight to behold.
We should all take a moment to appreciate the fact that we were able to bear witness to it. What an accomplishment!
In all seriousness, I used to learn a lot from reading this site and it helped me tremendously. People like Bob-in-DE, Gridbird and others who no longer post were very generous about sharing ideas and information. Things here have definitely dropped off considerably.
Part of this could be due to the fact that there are fewer new issues, redemptions, etc. Pricing of many preferreds is pretty much macro driven. You can throw a dart and find many good quality, IG issues trading with 6-7% current yields and way below par so limited call risk for now.
With that said, if intelligent posts are being made, it’s getting drowned out by useless nonsense. Here’s hoping the quality of comments improves.
LT and losingtrader are the same person. That means I am in second place.
I want a trophy!!
ESW3 I want to apologize that you had to use your time to do this. I have been away from home today or I would have posted this sooner.
Thank you for how you did this, I will stick to investing commentary.
I probably would have understood sooner but I just don’t respond well when someone is trying to get the point across by being rude. Thank you for being civil in the way you handled this.
I also want to apologize to the rest of the group.
I think what worries me today is that the drop is more related to a complete loss of confidence in the US Administration to get things under control in the short, medium, or long term than it is to any economic metric or policy.
Truly a frightening time if you are a holder of US equity assets.
I would say it should be at least as frightening to the holders of US fixed income assets since these are based on confidence in USD and UST. At least with equities you have claims on a business with real assets, brands, etc. Apple will still sell its iphones around the world no matter what happens to USD and its valuations might eventually recover. As a fixed income investor once the haircut happens you cannot come back.
IMHO the current macro situation greatly simplifies the job of security selection:
1. Tbills or maybe UST no longer than 2yr maturity
2. CDs of similar maturity if dont need immediate liquidity
3. Equivalent instruments in other currencies if you wanted to hedge USD risk
Return of principal is what matters, yield does not.
byg-
You can see the bond market agrees. There’s a big sag in the yield curve at 1, 2 and 3 years.
OTOH, IRX, the 13-week t-bill index, has been range-bound at ~4.2% since mid-Dec and is not signaling a rate cut.
I have rolling Tbills from 52 weeks and shorter. The last 52 week auction dropped below 4, but the rest are hanging above 4. I will be canceling the upcoming reinvestments of the 52 and buying shorter for the next few months. I really have no clue, but like the liquidity and safety.
The Interest rate differential between the US and EUR becomes less important when you are afraid about loss of capital. This is where we are now, a rapid loss of trust in the USD and Treasuries as safe havens. Thus the drop in the dollar and an increase instead of a decrease in long rates as stocks drop. Liquidity is leaving the US and going home to Europe, China and elsewhere reflected in gains in European stock markets, lower European bond rates while US stocks are down 20%. This is a new paradigm, old rules don’t apply, and it’s not changing anytime soon. Plan accordingly
AJ…… Bingo….. Capital fleeing the formerly perceived safe haven US is going to cause major problems. We may be getting very close to the predicted day the federal debt/ deficit spending blows up and nobody buys the neverending issuance of new treasuries forcing the Fed to buy them. The mighty US dollar crashes as the printing presses overheat from running wide open. Talk about gloom and doom! Those in charge need to realize they’re playing with matches surrounded by cases of unstable dynamite!
Maybe. Perhaps it’s just the dollar has traded much lower in my memory …1.30 against the Euro and nobody was expressing complete loss of confidence in it. Same with other currencies. I recall AUD at .91 for 15 years. pound at 1.65 to $2.
Memories are recent?
Probably some foreign holders of US$ assets read Stephen Miran’s paper “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System,” in which he openly advocates for a “Mar-a-Largo Accord” where “major economies will sell US dollar assets and swap short-term Treasuries for ultra-long bonds as part of a coordinated push to weaken the US dollar and rebalance global trade” and act preemptively.
costasco-
Were the Japanese negotiators offered some of those ultra-long bonds and said no thanks? Inquiring minds want to know.
If the US is no longer safe, gold is up, but this speaks volumes for bitcoin. It’s “safe” and independent of this mess and future mess. I went into Ether, but that seems the wrong move. Might get some BTC on next drop. While it swings wildly, it seems to be a “safe” (if that makes sense) bet if the wold currencys go haywire and infaltion goes bonkers in many countries concurrently. UGH. Never dreamed of this day near retirement.
I had to read this twice, Thinking Tim had gotten political, but he was just re-posting what the President has tweeted. This commentary is what is affecting the patient Mr Market. This is drowning out all the news of the passing of one of the greatest people of our time, the Pope.
We are all guilty.
I have one request Tim. Maybe I do post too much but can you wipe the Sandbox page clean and see if people can start over being more civil to each other.
Agree- back to finance, stock of any stripe, but of course, preferreds, BBs, Bonds and their CEF & BDC kin appeal to many here.
For a political fix- go to the usual networks, and social media sites.
Let’s clean this up & get back to the business that brought us here.
Charles M–I would love to get political–but then all hell breaks loose.
Here we go again….. A totally self inflicted significant down day developing. Normally Treasury yields go down on big equity movements down as investors flee to safe havens driving the price up, but today the ten year yield is going up. Evidently treasuries are being sold off too, driving the price down and the yield up. Don’t think this is normal folks…..
The dollar has lost almost 10% against the euro in barely 10 weeks. It may have happened in the past but I can’t recall a time that it did. And this is in spite of much higher interest rates compared to the euro.
And yet the dollar is holding steady with the Yuan as it has also devalued strongly against the Euro. So who are the winners and losers in this scenario?
I submitted this question to one of the Deep Research models and while the report is more detailed, here’s a summary.
WINNERS:
1. U.S. Exporters to the Eurozone (manufacturing, agriculture, tech/software)
2. Tourism and hospitality (although there are likely political headwinds countering this)
3. Multinationals with Eurozone Revenue
4.Domestic Industries
LOSERS:
1. Importers of European autos
2. Chemical industry
3. Luxury goods and high end retail
4.Outbound tourism
5. US companies with European operations
6. High End Manufacturing (dependent on European precision machinery)
7. Banking and Investment (firms with large European exposure)
I did not ask it to factor in the effect of tariffs.
2Chinooks
No comment on the stuff from the AI. GIGO.
However, with regard to China, remember that the Yuan is not a market-based currency.
It moves primarily as the Chinese government dictates.
The gov put in a lot of window dressing to make it look more like a market currency, but when you drill down through all their metrics, etc, they all end up with “Chinese gov. fiat.”
So, Dollar v. Euro or Yen or SFrank is interesting. V. Yuan is just a political statement.
It will be interesting to see what China does currency wise. Before it made sense to apply it against USD movements, Now? Not so sure. This could be a balancing factor for other economic upsets they will feel or retaliate with.