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10/30/2024
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FTAI Nice article in WSJ. I own both common and preferred.
https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/engine-shortages-have-grounded-airlines-this-company-has-the-formula-to-fix-that-fe5d9a08?mod=djemHeardEUH
Business Development Corp. Interesting Fitch analysis on the BDC market.
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/us-bdcs-solid-asset-coverage-cushions-mitigate-weaker-asset-quality-21-08-2024
Thanks Wanda, went over and read ADS analytics reviews of several of the BDC’s and the comments by readers. Two good commentators in the readers section that are consistent with their insight into BDC’s that they share with others. Different camps on the BDC’s , those that hold the common and as far as I am concerned willing to take higher risk and more portfolio management for higher yield and people like me who look for the preferred and BB with less risk ( I hope). Short term maybe I will take a nibble on a few BDC common.
SCHWAB – Down after hours –
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4142593-td-takes-26b-provision-for-potential-settlement-sells-405m-of-schwab-shares?mailingid=36485461&messageid=2900&serial=36485461.8727&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=36485461.8727
TD takes $2.6B provision for potential settlement; sells 40.5M of Schwab shares
Aug. 21, 2024 5:14 PM ETThe Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock, SCHW Stock, TD:CA StockBy: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor9 Comments
(2min)
TD Bank Group (NYSE:TD) said it has taken a further provision of US$2.6B in its fiscal Q3 results in anticipation of reaching a global resolution of civil and criminal investigations into its U.S. Bank Secrecy Act/anti-money laundering program by U.S. authorities, it said on Wednesday.
U.S. prudential regulators, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and the U.S. Department of Justice have been investigating TD Bank’s (TD) BSA/anti-money laundering program. TD expects that a resolution will be finalized by the end of the calendar year.
TD (TD) also said it sold 40.5M shares of Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) common stock, reducing its ownership to 10.1% from 12.3%. The bank has agreed not to sell any more Schwab shares for 45 days and has no intention of divesting additional shares. Bloomberg reported that TD is offering the shares at $61.35-$62.65 each, which will result in proceeds of up to $2.54B.
Schwab (SCHW) stock dropped 5.0% in Wednesday after-hours trading. TD stock increased 0.1%.
Dang, I missed this news. Thank goodness I never bought TD. Will put in an early bid for Schwab. I am up over 20%. I am sure First Horizon (TN bank) is celebrating the deal to buy them from TD fizzled.
CORE NATURAL RESOURCES. Evaluating this merger for arbitrage and capital appreciation. Moodys stated the merger is credit positive.
https://www.coalage.com/departments/breaking-news/arch-resources-consol-energy-to-merge/
Arch stockholders will receive 1.326 shares of CONSOL common stock for each share of Arch common stock owned. Arch stockholders will own approximately 45% of Core Natural Resources, and CONSOL stockholders will own approximately 55% on a fully diluted basis. The merger is expected to close by the end Q1 2025,
TNT; I think consolidation (consol excuse the pun) is good for the biz, cutting G&A, pooling material buying resources, streamlining etc. ..anytime in mining for the most part. Probably should be more. I know in gold mining, John Paulsen for years has pushed for more mergers for these reasons. Not just for growing ‘size’ of course but true synergies I guess.
I have a small holding in COAL the etf, very thinly traded, newer, higher fee (.85) might? pay 1 dist yr in Dec ; so more a call on coal not on the merger. The reason I like the etf as a play is you don’t get as many potholes as indiv issues and I have a positive view in the space personally. For example biggest, Yancoal of AUS, weak quarter somewhat and no div, boom down it went, BTU Peabody has a new activist pushing for more buybacks, the news on the merger. Anyway of course DYODD on all this, hope this helps. Here is a ‘coal’ tracker I follow; https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
and here is a site that tracks openings/closings, potential new starts of coal energy plants.. amazing how many are still popping up, hundreds. Bea
https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/
Bea, Thanks. ARLP announced poor quarter results. I think long and hard on these as recapture on distributions can be painful. I regret not buying ARLP when it cut its dividend. I will look at your information.
Moody’s Ratings states that the merger between Arch and CONSOL is credit positive; ratings remain unchanged
21 Aug 2024
Moody’s Ratings
New York, August 21, 2024 — Moody’s Ratings (Moody’s) said that on August 21, Arch Resources, Inc. (“Arch”; B1 stable) and CONSOL Energy Inc. (“CONSOL”; B1 stable) announced that they will be combining in an all-stock merger. The combined company will be called Core Natural Resources and will be owned 55% by CONSOL shareholders and 45% by Arch shareholders. The transaction is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals, and is expected to close by the end of 1Q 2025. At this time, ratings for both Arch and CONSOL remain unchanged.
We expect the transaction to be credit positive as it increases scale and diversification. The transaction combines CONSOL’s predominantly thermal coal portfolio, which the company has been increasingly positioning towards international and industrial end-use markets, with Arch’s predominantly met coal portfolio. The combined company will also benefit from having an ownership interest in two export terminals on the US east coast, providing optionality to direct volumes from various mines. The companies are targeting $110 to $140 million of cost and operational synergies.
Over the past few years, both Arch and CONSOL have utilized strong free cash flow to reduce outstanding debt and improve liquidity, before turning to shareholder distributions. This enabled them to be better prepared for volatility in coal prices. For the LTM period ending June 30, 2024, both companies had a Moody’s adjusted leverage of 0.3x. Arch and CONSOL have indicated that the combined company will have a strong balance sheet and liquidity, with ample free cash flow generation, although it is likely to be prioritized for shareholder returns.
Environmental, social, and governance considerations are important factors which will influence the credit quality for the combined company. While access to capital could improve for the combined company due to bigger scale and diversification, challenges related to legacy liabilities will remain.
This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the issuer/deal page on https://ratings.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
TNT, more coal news, Whitehaven another coal powerhouse in AUS sold a stake in a big met-coal mine to 2 Japanese companies to improve its balance sheet. All this movement in coal companies, wild, so much for the coal is dead crowd. With steel (metallurgical coal) weak and power thermal coal strong, it is an interesting time for the producers.
I started a position in Toyota Motors (TM) last week after it sold off bigley during the recent Yen carry trade unwinding. I’ve admired this company from afar for a long time and this week seemed like a good entry point. Caught part of a nice bounce off 5 year lows and plan to add more shares going into next month. The company pays a modest 2.66% semiannual dividend and the next (yet to be announced) ex -div date looks to be late September. There are a couple of good write ups on Toyota over at SA for anyone looking to ‘kick the tires’ on this one. Long TM
it seems they correctly picked the ‘hybrid’ lane at Toyota realizing people wanted choices.
I think Toyota listened to customers, not the gubment. Biden admin was pushing full EVs really hard, and now companies like Ford who listened are having to switch their EV plans.
Added to FLNG the lng shipper earnings were weak but inline as they will be 2nd half weighted, tweaking of a few ships in dock hit 2nd q, They realigned their credit line and are sitting still on over $400mil in cash, .75/q div still declared; goes XD 8/29. Part of my energy theme not so much shipping which I am not comfortable in. DYODD Bea
Still watching Bea. I too am not comfortable with shipping… I did ok with swing trading on Nordic and KNOT but got burned I think it was with global when COVID hit. Shipping is definitely sleep with one eye open.
JOBY …. Joby Aviation ….. non-petro 500 mile range helicopter company in final FAA testing phase.
Friday mid-morning at the $5.05 area, after a August 8 close at $5.20
Any followers of this areo spec item. I have added in the $4.95 – $5.12 range.
TIA, Jim
Concerning CUBI – Their digital deposits are approximately 15% of total deposits ($2.7BB out of $17.6BB). These deposits appear to be commercial only and are used for B2B payments. They are non-interest bearing.
The agreement is to apply normal banking BSA/AML/OFAC processes to the digital deposits and payments. I don’t know all the background, but I believe some of these requirements for digital have just been approved this year, but I’d have to research that further.
CUBI should have known this was coming, but who knows? I’m sure the downgrades and ambulance chasers will be out tomorrow, but we’ll see.
Another midwestern bank FYI:
Moody’s Ratings downgrades First Merchants (issuer rating to Baa2); outlook stable
Thanks Wanda, that’s still a good rating.
Make me want to look.
This might interest some people.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/insider-sale-director-derrick-stewart-230134618.html
I sold out of both ONBPP & ONBPO to raise cash about 2 weeks ago. I keep watching to see if I might get a good entry point to buy again.
Big dump on CUBI this morning for no apparent reason…. 117k shares took it down 5%+ to 50.02 and one attempt at recovery is now failing and down 10%… No news that I know – but I would suspect it’s related to bitcoin
I;m now seeing the reason – Poulin Wiley initiates an investigation https://ktla.com/business/press-releases/globenewswire/9199621/poulin-i-willey-i-anastopoulo-announces-investigation-of-customers-bancorp-cubi/
https://www.thebankslate.com/2024/08/customers-in-pa-must-improve-digital-assets-oversight-under-fed-agreement/
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/enf20240808a1.pdf
Now down 17% but recovered a little.
CUBI-E and F getting hit too but not like the common
The first one seems like typical ambulance chasing nonsense and is from a few days ago. Not sure about the second and third as they sound innocuous but there always is potential for really bad things to happen to banks dealing with crypto.
Any bank experts have any thoughts?
Sinclair. Again thanks to a poster on III, I studied and decided to buy. Nice return. We have speculated if political advertising would benefit these media outlets as they have lost so much to the Facebook’s of the world. Sinclair just announced:
• As of August 1, the Company has booked $146 million in political advertising for the second half of the year through Election Day; this compares to $78 million as of August 1, 2020
• Company increases full-year political advertising guidance to a range of $385 million to $410 million, representing growth of 10% to 17% compared to 2020 excluding the Georgia runoff.
Craziness with LUMN continues. up 500% since June. Price of $7 sounds high but 3 yrs ago if was over 12 so buyer then are still big losers. Fortunately I didn’t buy until deep into its slide. CTDD is also going up for the ride. Up 20% since June but still paying over 13% at that price. There are also some bonds but they haven’t jumped.
I suspect many here hold Coke. Great stock. I thought I would share as it is not only witty but informative as to how multinationals operate:
Have a Coke and a Smile Tax,
On May 8, 1886, a Civil War veteran and pharmacist named John Pemberton was experimenting with a nonalcoholic alternative to the morphine he had become addicted to after a saber wound at the Battle of Columbus. He accidentally mixed the base syrup with carbonated water and then decided to sell it as a fountain drink rather than a medicine. Pemberton’s bookkeeper, Frank Robinson, came up with the name and the flowing script trademark. Today, the Coca-Cola company sells over 1.9 billion servings of its drinks every day in every country except Cuba and North Korea, and “Coca-Cola” is the second-most recognized phrase in the English language.
Pemberton’s recipe is still a closely guarded secret. Only two of the company’s 79,000 employees know the exact formula, and they’re not allowed to travel together. When one dies, the other designates a successor and passes along the secret. Even the identity of those two employees is secret. And the only written copy sits in a vault on the grounds of the World of Coca-Cola museum in Atlanta.
But there’s one secret the alchemists at Coca-Cola are still working on today, and that’s the secret to paying less tax on all that fizzy carbonated goodness. Last week, the Tax Court told the company to keep working and hit them with a bill for $6 billion in back taxes and interest.
Companies like Coca-Cola that operate globally can structure operations to report income in all sorts of places. Naturally, they’ll want to report as much as possible in countries with low taxes. Why pay the old 35% corporate tax on profits here in the U.S. if they can pay, say, 12.5% in Ireland?
That incentive leads to classic tax dodges like the “double Irish Dutch sandwich,” which sounds like a penalty you’d see on an Olympic rugby pitch. In reality, it involves: 1) establishing an Irish holding company to own intellectual property rights to a tasty carbonated beverage, 2) registering the holding company in a tax haven like the Bahamas, 3) licensing the IP to a Dutch holding company, 4) selling the sweet deliciousness to customers in high-tax countries, 5) routing the profits back to a different Irish company, then 6) passing them on to the Bahamas where they’re effectively tax-free. (Before you ask: no, it won’t work for you.)
Incredibly, that whole shell game is legal if you don’t get too greedy. (Remember the old Wall Street adage: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.) There’s an entire body of law called “transfer pricing,” where specialized lawyers who can’t handle the fast-paced excitement of regular tax work plot out the rules for pricing transactions within and between businesses under common ownership or control.
These sorts of technical disputes can take a long time to resolve. In this particular case, the IRS sent a notice back in 2015 stating their intent to reallocate over $9 billion of Coca-Cola’s income to the U.S. parent company from 2007, 2008, and 2009. The company has announced they’ll pay the $6 billion, at least for now, and appeal the Tax Court’s decision.
You might not think $6 billion is a lot of money for a company the size of Coca-Cola, but it represents almost seven weeks of global sales. That’s a pause that does not refresh. So you can be sure the chemists working in the tax department will keep tweaking their formulas to keep every drop possible, even if their formula winds up in a courtroom instead of a museum.
TN, I visited Coca Cola HQ in Atlanta for business. I liked the vending machines that dispensed free coke products. It was only upped by my local Wisconsin hometown brewery Kingsberry, which served free beer in the water coolers.
Truly spec name, truly doesnt even probably belong in discussions here, took a little buy of TIXT Telus International (soon ‘Digital”) the Telus of CA spinoff (TU and Google biggest cust’s) at US$3. Guess this could also go in CA category here instead, has US listing of course like the telecom behemoth Telus.
The ‘angle’ here is way under the radar AI specialized play. Seeing Lumen here from folks decided to post, of course DYODD. Bea https://www.telusinternational.com/investors/news/telus-international-reports-first-quarter-2024-results?INTCMP=ti_investors_link_read-more_featured-content
I’ve added to CEFs recently, but haven’t initiated any new CEF positions. But I did today, added SPE (Special Opportunities Fund) under $13 this morning. Hopefully the beginning of a special relationship. Huge deserved discount but I really like their holdings
First, a thanks for the poster that discussed Kinetic last year. I watched and studied it then bought. Great stock!
PigPile, I noted your interest in Park Aerospace. Reviewing their latest 8-K, I noticed a few things. Would appreciate it if you have thoughts on these:
1. Dividends. ” May 28, 2023 included $65,000 of losses on sales of investments to fund the $1.00 per share special cash dividend paid on April 6, 2023 to shareholders of record on March 9, 2023, additional stock option expense of $109,000 due to the modification of previously granted stock options in connection with the special cash dividend mentioned above and $570,000 of activist shareholder defense costs”
2. Customer Base: “long-term contract pursuant to which one of its customers, which represents a substantial portion of the Company’s revenue, places orders. ”
3.Dilution: 750,000 shares, subject to shareholder approval at the Annual Meeting of Shareholders of the Company to be held on July 18, 2024 potential dilutive
4. Tax: Current effective tax rate higher than US statutory of 21% ; intends to invest $25 million outside of US to avoid repatriation leaving a risk of US deferred taxes on those earning;
5.Recent storm damage to Kansas facility. Impact on schedule and $2.5 million deductible to be incurred.
I like this space and with current world condition along with Boeing/Airbus supply issues, one can already see the positive impact on parts. However, if I understand PKE they make composite materials (lightning protection, etc.) so am curious if it depends on OEM vs. replacement parts. Do you know the history of the special dividend? Cannot understand why it would sell UST at a loss to fund a dividend. There are several suits but the company doesn’t seem to be reserving or taking them serious (perhaps it is correct). Anyway, I always appreciate suggestions. TIA
TN, This is what I know, or can find in various articles and filings
1. I have no notes on this activity, I have read of those expenses but I don’t have any details
2. Big risk, maybe the biggest risk is over reliance on Airbus production schedule. Is this what you are referring to?
3.) Unfortunately I do not have anything on share dilution, when it will be, etc etc. Have owned many microcap stocks over the years and this type of activity although irritating seems to be quite common.
4.) I have no notes on their tax situation.
5.) Losses incurred from the storm are documented and should be rectified by now. Company has cash and doesn’t carry debt so they opted to have higher deductible insurance to cover such matters. My notes say $1m charge. Not sure where $2.5m came from. Could I have misread?
Overall I probably am not much additional help over and above what work you clearly have done already looking into this one. It will be a patient play, and probably better times ahead to buy (as I stated in my original post). As is evident, it’s already fallen from on high, probably no less than for the reasons you bring up in your questions. Alot of things have to go right for this company, but I am always drawn to entities that have the wherewithal to have a hoard of cash, zero debt, and a niche business to boot. Their future attempts to gain share in China will be interesting to watch also, especially with the backdrop of the defense business. I’d love to dig deeper into the weeds on some of the even smaller parts players in this industry. Lots to uncover there.
PigPile, Thanks for reply. I will add this to watch list. I like the space and will be allocating time/energy searching.
TN, Let us know if you stumble on anything, I will as well. I’m prepared to hold thru $9 and buy some more, if it were to fall further I’d just hold what I have. Don’t expect less than $9 though as long as they maintain their cash level and continue with zero debt.
Lumen LUMN is popping ~75% today on positive news and a nice write up in Barrons. Lumen’s sub has a 6.75% bond CTDD, obscure, with only 430 followers on The Other Website. CTDD is up about 10% today. CTDD is technically a bond. After a debt restructuring it is now functionally a double or nothing bet on Lumen’s survival, a kind of a long-term binary option that pays a 14-15% dividend in the mean time. (FYI -There is also a CTBB.)
Caveats: Not for your lunch money. Really bad bond ratings, think the lowest cabins in the 1958 Titanic movie or maybe the engine room.
Good for this type of investor: You like to go to the track and put $2 to win on the long shot because you like the color of the silks.
Disclosure: CTDD is in my yield-hog portfolio, filed under mistakes. Under water, but hoping to reach a lifeboat. JMO. DYODD.
Lumen Technologies Stock Jumps 50%. 3 Reasons Why.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lumen-technologies-stock-price-microsoft-9564c71d?mod=mw_latestnews
I have to confess two years ago when I bought the bond, I did it in my mother in law’s inherited IRA. Barbara would die all over again if she knew and more so now that it looks like a brilliant move. 🙂 Truly HY has been the place to invest. I watch the spread and even yesterday with stock crashing the spread didn’t significantly move.
Lumen hired a brilliant woman from Microsoft. Her first move was to buy $1 million of the common at $1. I honestly thought the previous management had destroyed any hope.
One can google her speech at the Women’s Investor Group. She is doing exactly what she said would be done.-
LUMN is up 80% + so far today. Subsidiary debt issues CTBB and CTDD are both up 12% + so far today.
Ha, you beat me to it!
Wish I owned more LUMN. Up 300% since June. Notice it is still down about 50% from last August. Will the turnaround continue? They announced ” … it had secured $5 billion in new business because of soaring demand for artificial intelligence (AI) connectivity products.”
CTDD is up 12% since June and still paying 14%.
Mr. C, I thought the GBDC earnings report looked pretty good, the merged company looks stronger from a loan perspective the way they categorize the risk on the loans and some nice divs coming along, BV actually went up post merger..added yesterday in the market volatility. Bea
In December I wrote this note to myself on my PSEC chart:
There are other
high-yield BDCs.
They tend to nosedive
in a major downturn
and become good buys.
It’s starting to become relevant, although I’d look for better quality than PSEC when the day comes.
Hey pig-
PKE at 12
Yes thanks, I picked up a little more, and Ford.
Retail bankruptcies continue. Saw an article on Conn’s, a furniture store / subprime lender, going out of business. Critique was that Conns would still be in business if it had put its money into reducing debt instead of buying back shares (aka “returning value to shareholders.”)
Reminds me of Big Lots, a discounter with a furniture component, now closing stores and teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. A once $40+ stock that bought back $400 million of stock ( hence “creating value for shareholders”) but didn’t pay down debt. Now expected to fail because of high debt service and low sales. Stock at 1.03, buy the whole thing for ~$30 million.
Conn’s had about 550 stores, all will close. Big Lots is slated to close 40 stores this year. Impact on REITs is unknown. I saw Conns in a REIT portfolio a long time ago.
For fans of the B Riley / Franchise Group circle of doom saga , a link to a Conn’s article. Yes, Riley is involved in multiple ways. Like serving as a buy-side financial advisor to Conns in the purchase of a furniture chain owned by a Riley affiliate that Riley funded. ( The author: “These crisscrossing silken strands lead to questions…”) Cradle to Grave service: Riley is handling the Going Out Of Business Sale too.
https://homenewsnow.com/blog/2024/07/30/lingering-questions-about-the-conns-bankruptcy/
JMO. DYODD.
Most shorted stocks at IBKR. Arbour remains in doubt. I don’t own common.
Rank Stock Description
1 DJT TRUMP MEDIA & TECHNOLOGY GRO
2 ABR ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC
3 XPEV XPENG INC – ADR
4 INFY INFOSYS LTD-SP ADR
5 FLNG FLEX LNG LTD
6 AMC AMC ENTERTAINMENT HLDS-CL A
7 LCID LUCID GROUP INC
8 RDDT REDDIT INC-CL A
9 RILY B. RILEY FINANCIAL INC
10 SYM SYMBOTIC INC
Wanda, I have an interest in one of the stocks listed ( FLNG). I have owned it in the past but not now. I consider it a trading stock. Been watching it. Several bloggers over on SA have been touting how great it is. Other bloggers over there have warned starting in the second half of this year and going into 2025 there is going to be surge of new builds hitting the water that were ordered the past several years and the market going out to 2027 is going to be over supplied with ships fighting for contracts and customers and shipping rates will fall. I think those writers could be right as I see a perfect combination of high borrowing rates and what was originally a run up in cost to build new ships running into a recession and that supply hitting at the same time.
Again hard to judge as I have gotten burned by these boom bust cycles in shipping and wasn’t nimble enough in judging my buy, hold and when to sell.
So for now just watching. My experiences have been with flipping and holding KNOT
Charles, Equities have been wonderful. I added to NVIDA on Monday when it dipped. Nice return within 24 hours. I do not trade these equities. I like the large cap as while their valuation may decrease or increase, they will not go BK. Actually, if one of these did drop dramatically I think the entire market would drop. Like you, I went big on regional banks. 55% return. Bought Truist today and more EPD. Evaluating Verizon.
For these shorted stocks, if I have an interest I go with the bonds. Biggest return was buying LUMN 2025 bonds in 2023. That was converted to ROTH. LUMEN common is rising but I will stay with the Lumn or Quest bonds.
LUMEN stock is up over 200% in last few months. Finally back to my buy price and will hold. Obviously bought at the wrong time. Bond is doing nice paying over 11%.
Bond YTM for me is over 30%. I remind myself pigs get fed, hogs slaughtered. Instead of being happy, I berate myself for not buying more! We humans, go figure!
I will watch the common but recently added more to the bonds.
Haverty HVT is a little furniture chain pretty well run w family ownership/div return history and in OLP the REIT, no positions, I do have a little FLNG but like Charles keep an eye on it, ‘analysts’ are seeing a div cut for one ship I think being out of commission temporarily but not sure, mgmt is pretty savvy, I usually avoid shipping but consider it ‘energy’ w a newer fleet and good contracts.. none of the others. Pulled in some risk sold NLCP for an 8% gain and FLBR for a small gain including the .52c div, but will keep them on watch.
– Regional banks seem to be in the euphoria stage. Triumph, Columbia, 1st Citizens, up 15% in a day. A coupla insurers up 20-40%.
– Some regional banks are taking bond losses and swapping out low coupon debt for higher coupons to take advantage of anticipated rate cuts. Regions, Truist, Webster, PNC mentioned. Truist sold 2.8 coupons and bought 5.3%, its expecting a 2-3% bump in interest income next Q. I can’t explain the logic, don’t ask. With rates likely to drop, looks like the banks are trying to set up next quarter as a blow-out.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-regional-banks-are-now-willing-to-take-billions-in-losses-123009272.html
– If you have time on your hands, this YouTube site may be fun. Apparently run by a blogger type, it is a collection of recent conference calls with slide presentations. I found some banking reports (Valley, NYCB) and reports on companies I forgot about (Masco, DTE, CMS) . Not good if You Are Looking For Something Specific. Good if You Are Just Looking. ( I have been binge watching education courses — don’t ask — so I am deep into scrolling down the page for something interesting. ) In this world of AI, I would go to the home page before I hit the buy button.
Welcome to Fyfull, your go-to source for earnings presentations,
https://www.youtube.com/@fyfull/videos
JMO. DYODD
Bear, after the over 1hr long interview with Chris Whalen on banks I listened though, I admire your stamina. Actually took me several days. He predicted this roll over in their low bearing debt and purchase of higher interest rate coupons. When asked he said he wouldn’t be interested in any banks right now and this is a bank analyst saying that.
He did mention several in finance that he would be looking at, AXP is one. The rest you have to go listen to the interview.
BearNJ, thanks for that Fyfull Youtube link. With over 4 thousand videos there has to be some useful info there. That’s a lot of hours but remember audio can be speed up so a one hour video can be completed in .5 hours but that’s too fast for me. I do prefer reading transcripts but the videos are a nice alternative.
As an experiment on May 28 using Schwab slices I bought $5 each of 20 S&P 500 stocks with dividend reinvestment. 19 stocks had very long-term histories of outperformance. One was speculative: MRNA. 16 stocks are in the Nasdaq 100. I’m comparing performance to five reference etfs. I added a new line “19 slices” so I can see the status w/o Moderna.
after: 4 weeks 8 weeks
SPY 2.6% 2.7%
QQQ 4.6% 0.8%
IBIT (6.2%) (0.5%)
TLT 3.2% 2.5%
PFFA 0.9% 2.9%
slices 3.7% 0.8%
19 slices 2.1%
Among the slices
Best:
AAPL +13.4%
AJG +13.3%
AVGO +13.2%
UNH +13.1%
Worst:
MRNA -24.7%
AMD -16.4%
GOOGL -5.2%
CPRT -5.0%
The message of MRNA is if you’re going to make a single speculative stock 5% of portfolio, you better be prepared for the consequences, good and bad.
R2S interesting experiment. Thanks for sharing.
Looking at the chart, seems like you bought at the peak of the stock price for MRNA. It happens.
Charles-
From an ego point of view, I wish I hadn’t picked MRNA for the spec stock. But I’m glad I did because the whole point of the experiment is to learn something about (long-term) investing. Maybe Moderna will cure cancer.
r2s kinda like Rodney Dangerfield there are a couple other drug stocks that get no respect PFE, GILD, GSK, BMY should make an ETF out of them
MRNA -21% today after earnings. I don’t think I could have made a worse choice. Really hilarious!
I own a tiny bit of SVOL, the Simplify Volatility Premium etf. It’s been paying 30 cents/mo. for a CY of 16% and must be very leveraged. It seems to trade the opposite of VIX. I assume a downward bias.
The play I’m looking for is when VIX spikes and SVOL crashes. Presumably, SVOL will recover as VIX settles down. In the meantime. my adjusted basis is falling fast thanks to the high yield.
RE: your play — Are you holding two ETFs, a VIX ETF offsetting SVOL as a sort of a hedge? I find that when I pair two high-yield securities they can decouple and not perform as expected if a Market Event comes along. (I once paired an airline junk bond with a Canadian oil producer, a Canroy, for a principal-safe 15% yield. It did not end well.)
As far as VIX spikes, there’s been discussion about VIX being deflated since the introduction of daily volatility options. I don’t follow the dailies. There are supposedly ETFs on the dailies now.
Likewise, I have found that the more esoteric ETFs often don’t perform as I expect – although they do perform exactly as disclosed in the fine print. (What’s not to like about something advertised an an “Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge?” Maybe a 25% – 5 year loss. )
JMO. DYODD.
Bear-
My SVOL position is so small that I can’t get hurt. The purpose for now is to help me learn how the etf behaves.
If VIX never spikes, I suppose I’ll just go on earning 16% on squat. However, looking at the chart, it’s pretty clear SVOL is subject to drawdowns. I have nothing better to do with it than wait for a big one. Then I might gamble a bit.
The unknown is what happens to the dividend when SVOL price hits bottom.
Thanks. I often look at the new and esoteric ETF offerings from smaller fund families like Simplify, Amplify, Neos, etc.
I don’t hold VIX ETFs. I haven’t done much with VIX, except for buying portfolio protection against high damage risk – low probability events that have discrete deadlines. Cheap insurance: I’m glad to lose money. JMO. DYODD.
r2s > there are some youtube videos with the CEO of SVOL explaining how the ETF shorts futures contracts of the VIX. I’ve held for some time now too but not betting the farm on it. I think they have a second strategy built in at the same time. Worth checking out the vids.
This is most certainly dropping now but if you look at the long term chart it is in a steep downtrend. I guess it is sides from Late 22 on but before then it is down big. Have you gone through the prospectus? I worry about these things blowing up like those leveraged VIX etf’s…. But it is interesting here.
FORD, Despite the obvious, any thoughts on the free fall to a level of interest ? ? Seems to have some stability in the Thurs pre close in the $11.12 ~ $11.15 area. TIA
Jim, I have bought and sold Ford a bunch over the last several decades. I’d be looking at this move as an opportunity to get back in. Short of usable cash at the moment but it’s being watched. Message board commenters on multiple sites (SA, Yahoo, Reddit, you name it) hate this company but its right up there in my top 3 in terms of stocks where I was able to make the most money. I will most likely ignore the noise again.
As of this morning I’m back in Ford.
Atta Boy …. Thursday close @$11.16 ….. Friday $11.19
At these levels, it should do well over the coming weeks.
I am ahead of you at $11.01 !!!!!!
Thanks for comments on Thursday.
Jim
Picked up some PKE (Park Aerospace) this morning. This is definitely in the long term hold category. May be a couple years too early on this but have watched this come down from $16 and decided to wait no longer.
That’s an interesting company for sure. Why do you think you are early? Expecting the price to continue to drop I assume?
New, from what I understand growth trajectory slated for a couple yrs out still. Aircraft engine business not for the faint hearted for sure but Park seems to be one of the best. No debt, tons of cash. Well run conservative business that pays a decent dividend to wait it out. I don’t really expect it to fall from here but have my mind set on buying more at $11 if it were to drop.
Did a little shuffling of tech stocks yesterday and a small reduction. So far good move in one day. Sure don’t know what will happen going forward but a least I don’t feel bad about the changes I made for one day. Reduced my MU holdings and increased TSM, Need to watch very carefully going forward. Overall nice gains for the year but losses since beginning of June. If MU doesn’t stabilize soon, will have to sell all MU. Zacks has it as a strong buy. Don’t know if that is worth anything.