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5/18/2025
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UNH made it to 250. I don’t have a reasonable lower projection target. If it goes lower, the 200 area would provide support. Bought one…tee hee.
Wasn’t watching yesterday morning so I missed out on the $250. Paid 10% more at $278. Most analysts were liking UNH when it was in the 400s and 500s. There are some risk factors.
Optum generated 42.7% of UnitedHealth Group’s earnings. Some are concerned the government’s move to force down drug prices could effect Optum but I couldn’t find out how much of Optum’s earnings come from drug sales.
Also the media report that UNH is facing a criminal investigation related to possible Medicare fraud had an effect on prices.
Danzeb-
Looking at drawdowns at other big health insurers might give a clue as to how much of the UNH move is related to policy concerns. ELV HUM CI…no two alike.
Call me crazy but I started a first tranche into UNH at $307.18 today. Just a 10% position and plan to add every $5-10 lower or if I see more definite signs of a bottom. If I can get this at an average within $5 of $300/share, I’ll take it. It’s going to be a long project but this could go back to $400 in 12-18 months with the plans they have in place. And, I get 2.73% yield while I wait.
UnitedHealth Shares Plunge Continues On Reported DoJ Probe For Medicare Fraud
Were you aware of this before buying? Probably not. Heads up. Oh. It came out after hours. I see…
UNH 284 after hours. 250 (or ?) plausible.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/unitedhealth-under-criminal-probe-possible-medicare-fraud-wsj-reports-2025-05-14/
yes, that gave me a start – bought some more at 250. Avg is like 271. Small position of 50 shares. Seems like the worst is over but who knows – at 270, the divvy yield is over 3%. I’ll hold a while or till it hits 350 whichever comes first – LOL. I did buy a long protective put spread just in case.
doubled position at 250.13 yesterday with a ‘gulp’…looking ok now…added few more to get avg to 271-ish.
sold put with a 245 breakeven
PEP looks interesting. Correction to date -34%. Dividend was raised to $1.422, making the CY 4.4%. Target guess 124.5, emphasize guess.
UNH disaster continues. Low 316.5 this morning. Looking at a log chart, I’d guess 305 for the low. Non-log 250, a 60% correction. Today’s downside is partly news that’s affecting all the big health insurers.
Since I don’t trade common stocks and own few, I have only a passing interest in UNH, but I would be thinking about buying below 300 for a long hold.
Yes, UNH is having some problems and and has suspended current guidance.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-group-just-switched-ceos-131500538.html
Anybody have a clue what BGS Foods Inc, BGS is thinking with today’s gaudy dividend declaration…? Clearly has a hall pass to cut after share price collapse post q1 ER…
B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE: BGS) announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.19 per share of common stock. The dividend is payable on July 30, 2025 to stockholders of record as of June 30, 2025.
At the closing market price of the common stock on May 13, 2025, the current dividend rate represents an annualized yield of 17.7%. This is the 83rd consecutive quarterly dividend declared by the Board of Directors since B&G Foods’ initial public offering in October 2004
And B&G down another 3% this morning. Haven’t looked into it.
Most food stocks down today. Conagra, General Mills, Campbell’s, Kraft down. Maybe we will stop eating.
The 11th dividend at 19 cents. They haven’t helped the stock price. Looking at the chart, the market doesn’t like this company.
I don’t follow BGS closely anymore. Was a long term holder. Sold BGS when their debt started to be a problem. Good products – I love Ortega – and Green Giant frozen – but they have a lot of debt, a lot of competition and imported ingredients with tariff risks. I would have cut or omitted the divvy and reduced debt. JMO. DYODD.
spending on stock as the debt kills – following BBB strategy. To the grave.
I got in UNH at 307, 250, 262 for avg abt 271 – small amount of 50 shares. It’s about 285 now. The 307 was just before the last shoe dropped…should have waited a day!
— Getting lost in today’s tariff euphoria: the recent news flow in the pharma sector. Medicare drug price cuts in general. Weight loss drugs in specific: new “who’s better” research, insurance benefit coverage, name-brand price discounts, name-brand versus telehealth off-brands. Buy the sector dip?
— Oil: sell the rally?
— Gold: buy the dip?
JMO. DYODD.
And the gray ooze of rising deficit spending continues its relentless spread.
“China’s copper concentrate imports at record high as more smelters prepare to open”
https://www.mining.com/web/china-copper-stocks-set-to-fall-again-heightening-supply-tightness-concerns/
Enbridge announced significant natural gas storage expansion for US Gulf coast. Two major new deepwater pipeline systems on track for 2028 and 2029. CapEx continues. Not sure if more debt will be required. Thoughts on impact to common?
F&G Annuities FG had a conference call today. Apparently, it did not go well. FG dropped 14.4%. FG’s majority owner is Fidelity National Financial FNF, which dropped 7.1% today. FG sold a baby bond in January, FGSN, which held steady today. FG did an equity raise via a stock offering in March. Pundits and commenters agreed that while the below-book offering price was low, the stock was a great bargain. FG has dropped 20% since then. FG’s portfolio includes structured loans, CLO’s and private credit. FG hired a new CFO.
My ex-boss used to end his staff memos with the line: “What this means is not clear. ” FG is down 26% Year to Date. . May be a buying op or may not be, so DYODD and JMO. Neither FG Fidelity nor FNF Fidelity is related to our dearly beloved Fido.
Well DINO hit my target of $34.00 today but I didn’t have a good to sell order. Still watching and they just declared the dividend with a yield of about 6.6%
Still too early in the summer driving season and the economy is still chugging along. Next stop 36.00?
CAG made a new low today in the downtrend started in 2023. It looks like it could be headed to the Dec 2018 low of 20.22.
CAG monthly non-log 1996-present.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oq7KNQjH/
CAG has been paying a 35 cents quarterly dividend since July 2023. The dividend has been rising since 2017. The CY is 6.1% and would be 6.9% at 20.22. I’m watching and wondering if there’s a threat to the dividend.
CAG has had trouble getting ahead of itself. They had a good grasp of supply chain inflation out of the pandemic but inflation kept ramping up. Then Ozempic worries, people eating less. (RIP Weight Watchers.) Eggs, Cocoa, Now RFK issues, removing colors and reformulating foods. IMHO, CAG has been less than aggressive in raising prices compared to Campbells / Rao where the sky is the limit. A hold. FYI – I’m not worried about the divvy. JMO, DYODD.
I bought a 1/2 position and turned it over a few times between 24-27 and then sold the call. I’m about even and will probably build the rest of the position selling puts. I like Ardent, and think Mr market will assign a 10% cagr over a few years period including dividends….
Open a high-yield bank account, get a nice rate of interest and a few bucks off your Verizon mobile phone bill every month too. Verizon VZ recently announced a marketing agreement with OpenBank, OpenBank is a US unit of Santander Bank, SAN. SAN is a large international bank, headquartered in Spain. OpenBank is FDIC-insured. (At least as long as there is still an FDIC.)
Open Bank is offering its account (currently yielding 4.4%) through Verizon website. Direct sign ups get you the rate but don’t get you the VZ discount. Overall sounds like a very good deal for both VZ and SAN. VZ yields 6.4% and is up 10.4% YTD. SAN is up 57% this year. It yields 3.1%. JMO. DYODD.
Link to the deal.
https://www.verizon.com/financial-services/high-yield-online-savings-account/
While researching common stocks to invest in for dividends, I learned there’s risk associated with how long a dividend has been paid by the company you’re investing in. Case in point is the Merk spinoff Organon (OGN) which started publicly trading in 2021 and prior to May 1st was paying a quarterly dividend of .28 per share before announcing a 90% cut to ‘strengthen the capital structure to support long term growth’. This seemed to catch the market by surprise and the stock sold off almost 25%.
No one expected this news and the damage to share price was sudden and severe. This was a stock that I had only taken a nibble at in anticipation of taking a much larger position after earnings so the downside was manageable, but it does sting to have even a small investment drop so much so quickly.
I have owned OGN since the spin off and quite a few of us knew this was coming. They need to tackle the debt, slowly grow the biz, and only then start paying a growing dividend. Many of us were confused by how they were going about this. The size of my position is small when it was spun off so I just held on to it not really caring what happens. I think I added a few shares just get it to a round lot. I pretty much decided to hang on to it hell or high water.
I feel if you read most of the comments on the articles over at SA you should have been able to sense this was a possibility because quite a few people dug into the financials and commented on it. That is how I picked up on the situation.
I am not saying this is a wonderful thing and you “should have known” but there were hints galore this was a possibility. Frankly now OGN can stabilize the business in a proper manner which is good for the long term.
The same situation is playing out with WHR. I just bought a starter position but I am going into this with eyes wide open. They cutting the dividend to approx 4 dollars per year is a distinct possibility even though they have paid a reliable slowly growing dividend of some amount for many decades.
FC, I felt the same way about WY after having worked in the lumber business and as I was working for GP at the time I watched how WY and GP handled the GFC differently. I never did pull the trigger after 2010 on WY and wish I had. I think cutting the dividend is part of how a well run company survives.
CVX CY 5% at 137 looks interesting, however…
– Crude price has been falling and might go lower, a little or a lot.
– According to pro-oil Doomberg, Trump wants $50 oil and might have made a deal with the Saudis to get there.
– I can project CVX to 91 but have no prediction, as usual.
All very interesting, but I have no plans to buy energy stocks unless they get really cheap and pay a high dividend. Context: I own very few common stocks and especially like ones that pay me to own them. My current crop of payers, including ETFs and CEFs, is ~2% of portfolio with a 9% YOC.
Rocks, If that $50 Oil becomes a reality, would be a good time to replenish US Petroleum Reserve.
pig-
The DOE website discusses replenishment. In the past year they’ve had bids under 80, but I don’t understand what it says now. In any case, refilling takes a long time.
Oil getting rocked, as of this moment futures pointing to sub $56 Crude
Now if heating oil would drop in price as much as oil has. I could use 400-500 gallons to fill up some tanks. Sub 2.50 per gallon sounds great to me for next winter. Sucks for my MLP investments but always nice in other ways.
rocks,
Tom DeMark is one of the few that influence me. I did lighten up in February based on his work, and subsequently added significantly in early April. Now, he is turning back to being bearish. Do you follow him?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-market-coming-p-500-151657202.html
My gut feeling is that this rally has further to go, but I attribute my comfortable position to deferring to those who have proven to be better than me. In the end, it’s about account value and not ego.
af-
I’m familiar with DeMark. Many swear by him. I rarely trade. Even using my simple tools, I was able to pinpoint the SPX top. Now, with stock indexes driven by headlines, a couple dozen big caps, deficit spending and relentless dippers, I pay most of my attention to bond futures and yield charts, wherein lie the fate of our income-oriented investments.
Although uncertain, I would expect a new 2025 low in the S&P 500 to have a detrimental effect on the holdings of PFF and HYG.
af-
A guy from Virtus/PFFA said in an interview that preferreds have a 50% reaction to stock market movements, or something like that. If the junk spread widens dramatically, it will be the only thing that matters.
I sold the CVX Jun $135 puts for $555 this week – been selling the weeklies too collecting about $1000 per 100 shares so far. So, if I get put the stock at 135, my basis will be 125 or a bit lower…I’ll take that. Then I’ll consider selling covered calls while I collect 5.1% divvy YOC.
UNH monthly log chart 1984-present.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sjQ9bj20/
A rare event: a major bear for UNH. I don’t know where it’s going or why, but I’ll offer my guess: a 50% retrace to 321.
Funnily enough, after all the selling the CY is only 2%. Maybe that’s a lot for UNH.
The UNH low today was at the 50% retrace of the Mar 2020 rally, so we know the market is watching retrace levels.
What else hit the 50% retrace of the Covid rally? AAPL, almost. AMZN and ELV bounced there. TSLA, and then some. HUM, almost 100%.
R2S I am with you on watching energy. LT could do better than I am doing since he is an expert on options. I bought the green dinosaur in tranches couple weeks ago averaging down from about 29.50 to 27.50. should have followed it all the way down into the 26’s
Summer driving season is coming up and I will probably flip before the next x-dividend. Already sold 1/3rd at 31.10 not a long term hold with a K-1
CM, I thought DINO was C corp, not a partnership–looking for a link to confirm that.
You may be right furcal. let me know. I used to play with Holly Frontier and that might have been what I was thinking. It’s still not a long term hold for me.
Wednesday, May 7, 2025 (after market close)
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited
AHL / NYSE
IPO – (IPO Certification Form is Required for this transaction)
11,000,000 Shares (100% secondary)
Apollo Shareholders
Price talk 29-31
FWIW AHL-D,E,F
Assuming this Aspen Insurance IPO does OK and does not tank, what does it mean for the preferreds – all of them trading way below par 2 weeks ago.
Should one consider buying them for good yield with decent appreciation potential?
Being Bermuda based not QDI
I believe the Aspen preferred dividends are Qualified. JMO. DYODD.
AHL ipo priced at $30 overnite and will trade today fwiw…
2/15/2019 the Apollo Funds have acquired all of the outstanding ordinary shares of Aspen for $42.75 per share in cash, representing an equity value of approximately $2.6 billion.
Apollo (NYSE:APO) set to offer 11M shares of Aspen Insurance, the private equity firm would raise ~$330M for a 12% stake in the company.
The underwriters have an option to purchase up to an additional 1,650,000 ordinary shares from the selling shareholders at the initial public offering price less the underwriting discount for 30 days from the date of this prospectus.
Aspen Insurance, to trade under the “AHL” symbol, will have 91.8M shares outstanding after the offering.
So at $30.00 a share the company is valued at approximately 2.8 Billion a little more than they paid for it 6yrs ago.
The offering is approximately 13% of the company? Being the owner of the company gives you some insight into how the company is doing I would assume. So is the $330 million in their hands before or after expenses and taxes?
Seems like there will be additional sales of shares coming into the market sometime down the road. Have a couple good quarters of earning reports then sell more into the market.
With a limited number of shares on the market now the common might be worth buying for a good flip. On the other hand, I am not sure I’m interested in common right now so I wonder if the preferred are safer? and which one?
Here is a link provided by Retired investor on the other site.
https://www.bermudareinsurancemagazine.com/aspen-amends-ipo-filing
This IPO doesn’t look like it is valuing the company at the $4 billion APO was hoping for and not sure this market is any better for IPO’s than 2023 & 2024 when they said they held off due to market conditions.
This seems more like lets get the company public and test the waters.
Here is the article
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4769060-aspen-insurance-preferreds-update-all-still-rated-hold
I tip toed into Whirlpool (WHR) today. Starting an accumulation phase. Not much confidence in the timing so only a small initial purchase. I’m thinking this one can turnaround at some point. Want to be there when it does. Seems like a low payout ratio for company paying 9%+ yield.
pig-
WHR has an excellent long-term record of paying and increasing dividends despite recessions. My projection target guess is ~60, but I’m going to use that to mean lower is possible, not that it has to. The 9% CY is a solid foundation, IMO.
Whirlpool uses some imported parts in its U.S. appliance manufacturing. This from the conference call last week:
“The newly announced tariffs are critical in closing a pre-existing loophole that gave our Asian competitors an unfair advantage over U.S. domestic production. The tariffs will finally help create a level playing field for Whirlpool,” Bitzer said in a Thursday conference call to discuss quarterly results.
I like your plan…a little starter, see what happens. Ex-date May 16.
Good choice. Whirlpool describes itself as the last US appliance maker. Pros: produces 80% of what it sells in the US here. About 80% of its parts are US sourced. Cons: nervous consumers, uncertain housing market, high tariffs on some parts (`$70/unit) , debt, etc. Reportedly cutting debt by selling some international operations. Not one that I follow, so DYODD and JMO
Whirlpool Corp. CEO Says Tariffs to Benefit Business Going Forward | Bloomberg Businessweek
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQUmgY7y-IE
Rocks/Bear, thanks for your takes on this one!!!!!!
Pig,
I have to say I got interested when I was reading this but as bear mentioned they have debt and the free cash flow is barely covering that div. The div is NOT well covered at all. This stock has been steadily going down for the last 4 years and it just gives me that feeling it is not done yet. Not sensing capitulation. There will be no div increases for the time being.
Tariffs is just another complex topic where people are spinning it as good or bad. Hard to say.
I feel like a div cut to 4 bucks per year would be prudent for them. At the current price of 77 that is approx a 5% yield. That means I tend to agree with Rock that a share price of 60 gives one an excellent entry price because I am pricing in a div cut.
I don’t think they are going to go bust but I also think the worst is yet to come.
sell the put. I think this one goes up in exchange for a dividend cut. T got rocked and is already eyeing the next dividend raise and back at near 30. I too, am guilty of cigar butt activity but T at 13 was a steal and whr at 60 with a 50% dividend cut wouldn’t be too bad either.
WHR made it through the GFC without a dividend cut. I imagine they will do everything possible to avoid a cut now because of reputational damage. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen. The current situation is like no other I’m familiar with.
pig,
After thinking about your WHR post, doing some reading, and just mulling it over I decided to buy a whopping 25 shares as a starter position. Now it never fails, so prepare yourself for your second buy, now that I have purchased this it will tank below 70 and the div will be cut to 4 bucks a year.
I think the final thing that pushed me to buy was the realization that the last 2 appliance purchases I made was a simple (not fancy digital stuff) dryer and a freezer for the basement. Both are pretty darn good bang my for my buck and I would buy more WHR products. For the business though I had to go speed queen. But we beat the crap out of those with 10 times the use a home appliance gets.
fc, welcome aboard!!! Yes I often buy at wrong time so initial purchase always small at beginning, lol
This past week I started accumulating shares of Dow Chemical (DOW). Down -25% YTD and almost -50% in the past year, currently yielding ~9% dividend.
This is a cigar butt that I’m gonna take a few more puffs on and so far so good. Earnings came out Thursday and were a 3cent beat. A technical bottom was put in during the week of April 7 with a bullish harami pattern forming since then. The upside target price is $40 but I’m gonna play for $35 with an eye on clipping a dividend coupon or two in the process. Currently trades at $30, just above it 20 day moving average.
DOW declared another 70 cent dividend. Will this continue? If so, the low might hold barring a recession.
I’m still holding DOW shares at around mid 30 and have no plan to cost average it yet as I’m not 100% sure about its dividend sustainability. No question about the dividend yield which is very high historically (higher yield, higher risk). Looking at Q1 result, total dividend payout was $494M, net cashflow from operating activities was $91M and cash equivalent asset dropped by $708M. The payout dividend ratio is negative. I will still keep an eye of this stock (since I owned it mainly for dividend). If Q2 result in Jul still show negative payout dividend ratio, that’s a bad trend. On the good note, the usual “corporate-speak” to reassure shareholders, the company announced cost reduction activities. This year, I saw a few DOW bonds been issued. I also have the 6.7% Dow bond (26054MDT5) that I bought in 2023 and still holding it. For now, the company is still far from default. Both Moody & S&P senior long term bond rating outlook have it as “negative” and Fitch “evolving”. DYODD.
FPI – If anyone is still following this lawsuit stemming from a short attack on SA years ago, today there was a positive development favoring FPI –
That’s why it’s up 2.3% today – https://www.txcourts.gov/media/1460377/230634.pdf
The original short attack was published 7/11/18 – https://seekingalpha.com/article/4186843-farmland-partners-dont-bet-the-farm-on-the-common-rather-land-on-the-preferred
Conclusion: “The court of appeals correctly held, on the summary judgment
record before it, that the trial court erred in determining that collateral
estoppel bars FPI’s suit against Sabrepoint in Texas as a matter of law.
We affirm this portion of the appellate court’s judgment. But the court
of appeals erred in declaring void the portion of the trial court’s order
that granted Sabrepoint’s motion to dismiss under the TCPA. We
therefore reverse that portion of the court of appeals’ judgment and
remand to that court to consider the merits of FPI’s appeal from that
order.”
2wr–these things sure do drag out—how long ago was that? FPI management has kept me away from them for years now.
North Dallas Bank & Trust (NODB), low liquidity and float. Picked up some shares on the pink sheets today @ $56.25. I believe last stated BV is $67 or thereabouts. Earnings are supposed to skyrocket next few yrs as ill advised purchase of 5Yr Treasuries are coming off the books.
Columbia Banking System COLB is acquiring Pacific Premier Bank PPBI in an all stock deal. COLB, whose home base is the Pacific Northwest, will add 60 offices in Southern California and bump its Southern California deposit share from #51 to #10.
Columbia’s banking unit, “Umpqua Bank”, is the 45th largest US bank with assets of $52 billion. Pacific Premier is the 101st largest bank with about $28 billion of assets. (3/24 data.) The combined bank, which will rebrand under the Columbia name, will have assets of ~$70 billion and rank about 40th by assets.
Too much CRE has been an issue. Columbia completed its long-pending Umpqua acquisition in 2023 just in time to walk into the 2023 Regional Bank Crisis. In February 2025, S&P finally raised COLB’s rating back up to BBB stable from BBB negative. COLB acknowledges that it will need to work down CRE again.
Columbia is down 16% Year to date. It yields 6.1%. Pacific Premier is down 17.5% YTD. It yields 6.6%. I think the combined company will be a 6%+ yielder.
Regional banking is a tough business. You have to pay interest to attract depositers. The TBTFs like Chase, with implied government backing, can get deposits almost for free. (On the other hand, Chase doesn’t give out free coffee and cookies like Umpqua Bank.) COLB is a legacy position, not adding banks now. JMO. DYODD.
Bear, I’m looking at The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (NTB), based in Bermuda. Damn thing got away from me during and after the Tariff Tantrum. Was poised to get in at $35+ but got distracted and by the time I came back to it was pushing $39, and today even hit $40.
NTB, interesting choice , not one that I have heard of. I will have to take a closer look.
Was looking at trade war risks last night and ended up looking at India, mostly ETFs
Largest India ETFs ranked by assets ($225 million cut off)
INDA iShares MSCI India ETF — largest — $9 billion
EPI WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF
FLIN Franklin FTSE India ETF
SMIN iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF
INDY iShares India 50 ETF
INCO Columbia India Consumer ETF
NFTY First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF
PIN Invesco India ETF
India ETFs ranked by YTD returns ($225 million cut off)
** Positive returns YTD **
INDY iShares India 50 ETF
NFTY First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF
INDA iShares MSCI India ETF
FLIN Franklin FTSE India ETF
** Negative returns YTD **
PIN Invesco India ETF
EPI WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF
INCO Columbia India Consumer ETF
SMIN iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF
INDA Speedometer / Popularity Meter – 134% – (1-month vol / 3-month vol)
Some say international stocks can be diversifiers. YTD return comparisons India ETFs vs popular US ETFs
INDY – best return – up 3%
INDA – largest fund – up 0.7%
SPY down 12%
SCHD down 7.7%
Comparison shopping:
HSI Hang Seng Index up 9.1% YTD
EWH iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF up 2.0%
FLHK Franklin FTSE Hong Kong ETF up 0.4%
India’s Gold reserves are among the top 10 nations. Most gold is held in India, not in the US. US Treasury bond holdings are $228 billion, rank 14th. Relations between the US and India are cordial with the US eager to sell India energy and arms. India needs arms vs. China and Pakistan. The US needs India as a counterbalance against China. IMHO, India does not appear to have a Mar-A-Lago Accord risk on its US bonds.
WisdomTree’s pitch on India. Tech – Mag7 etc – is about 30% of the US stock market. India: Tech has declined from a 20% share of the Indian stock market to 12%, indicating a diversifying economy. India has positive demographics: a large young growing population vs US and China, both aging. India does not rely as much on imports as other countries (xOil.) About 76% of India’s consumption is domestically sourced, up from 69% in 2021. Domestic sourcing, domestic consumption and a growing economy make India more tariff resistant than most. (Wisdom Tree, VettaFi, 4/4/25)
Just thinking out loud. Posted here to avoid non-preferred clutter on Sandbox. JMO. DYODD
Taking advantage of the lower dollar valuation and IBKR I have bought a few Indian securities that do not trade on US Exchanges. Considering same for Europe.
Something I don’t understand.
Stablecoin issuer Tether Investments had a cash tender offer open for up to 70% of the shares of Latin American ag company AGRO for $12.41 a share. The tender started in late March and closed yesterday.
But the shares never traded above about $11.50 during that whole time frame. The next ex-dividend date, in early May, is for only 17.5 cents.
So why didn’t arbs close the gap a bit more? What am I missing here?
Did you flip it? Some tender offers are limited in size so they might only get a partial tender or too late if oversubscribed then stuck with the rest of it. Or maybe they just didn’t notice or didn’t trust it.
Thanks Martin! I didn’t tender and some large holders said they wouldn’t either. Book value is in the mid-13s and I think anything below that is giving Tether an undeserved bargain. “Buy land, they ain’t making any more of it.”
MAGS closed at 30% off the all-time high. The low close on April 8 was a little lower. It looks like 40% off (~35) is possible. Would you buy at that price?
From a tweet today:
“At 2:20 PM, there was an $8 million spike in puts on the Nasdaq 100 ETF.
4 hours later, the US banned Nvidia, $NVDA, from selling their H20 chips to China.”
Front running the administration’s announcements has become normal business. Don’t call a watchdog…all fired.
Just noticed your NVDA msg (7:44pm NY ) …..
NVDA Tuesday Close $112.20 …
After Hrs at $105.33
There should not be anyone in office that wants to be there. Only people who are selected at random from a pool of people who would be qualified should be allowed to serve. People who actively want those roles are literally the worst candidates. Random choice would be better than voting. Once the debt is defaulted, only people who own USA shares will get to vote anyway (jk, I don’t think there is a default risk). Sir/Ma’am you were randomly selected from a pool of top candidates to be governor, are you willing to do it for 4 yrs? No? Sir, Ma’am, you were randomly selected….
OT – Your post is an excellent summary of how public officials were chosen in ancient Greece: by lot, as in the word “lottery,” not by election. The ancient Athenians, who are credited with inventing the idea of democracy, actually thought elections were undemocratic. They feared elections could be bought by wealthy oligarchs and invited tribal divisions.
Because the Athenians believed all were equal under the law and all had equal political rights, the lot was considered the fairest selection method for office. Interested citizens self-selected for offices, were publicly vetted for citizenship and character and then were chosen by lot. No campaigns, no political parties. Winners were limited to one term only
The idea of “election by lot” popped up throughout history. Some philosophers liked the idea (Cicero, Montesquieu, Rousseau, Arendt). The idea had a renaissance during the Renaissance. The Swiss used it for mayoral elections for 200 years. Some say the Anglo-Saxon jury system evolved from it. – Wikipedia, topic Sortition. JMO. DYODD
yup…we don’t have any conception of what a beneficent state would be anymore, because no one in my lifetime who hasn’t gone an viewed it somewhere else with their own eyes can even conceptualize what it would mean anymore. I’m not a statist, but know that it’s possible, because I’ve seen it…
Kind of like jury duty. And everyone knows how popular that is. Maybe if it paid better.
News says China is restricting rare earths sent to US. Ramaco is hoping to produce them but may not be for a few years. So Ramaco news may or may not be good for the stock. Also don’t know how many dollars their process can generate. Worth watching their progress. I do own METCZ but not METC.
Kentucky-headquartered Ramaco Resources (NASDAQ: METC) announced it has received a $6.1 million matching grant issued by the Wyoming Energy Authority for its Carbon Ore Rare Earth (CORE) Brook mine project.
The funding will match Ramaco’s future investment in building a rare earth and critical minerals pilot processing facility north of Sheridan, Wyoming.
The planned facility will be an enclosed structure located on Ramaco-owned property, with initial construction scheduled to begin in the fall of 2025.
Be careful with Rare Earth Elements companies. They are a haven for scammers, maybe because there are just so few listed rare earths stocks. The only NYSE listed semi-legit one I am aware of is MP, but you can see from the last few days how volatile it can be.
Anyone have thoughts on Net Power (NPWR)? They are a pre-revenue natural gas power startup. From what I can tell, they actually have a great technology: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allam_power_cycle. It’s very efficient, and involves full carbon capture. My energy consulting PhD physicist friend thought the approach was great.
The downside is that the scale up costs are very large. They were trading at ~$10 at the start of this year, slid to ~$7 on rumors of cost increases, then dropped hard to ~$3 after an earnings call where they said they needed $600-$900M to build out (about double earlier estimates). They’ve currently got about $500M of cash and about the same for market cap, with very little debt.
It’s since dropped to ~$2 with the recent market turmoil, but I don’t think they are actually affected much by tariffs. My guess would be something like 50% they fail to get funding and go out of business in the next two years, and 50% they get back up to $5 or higher. And if the test project works well (unknowable odds) they could easily go much much higher.
Anyone else following them? With their combination of high efficiency, carbon capture, and Texas natural gas, I feel like they might be politically resilient. And I think I’ve got a reasonable handle on the technology. But I know very little about the management or the fundraising environment.
Not a company that I follow but if you are interested in the concept, I might suggest taking a closer look at OKLA and GPRE.
OKLA is in the business of modular nuclear power for data centers, with a kicker that they will support nat.gas as a secondary/initial power source. I don’t own shares, but has been on my radar. I am not fond of relatively early stage companies like that with a dream and a monster CapEx cost.
GPRE is an ethanol company trying to pivot to carbon sequestration. Their share price is in the gutter and CEO just resigned. But they are trading at roughly 1/3 of book value, with a wide moat, and probably a takeover target. I do own recently purchased shares and some options positions.
OKLO is the modular nuke company…they are a long, long way from certification. They have a lot of cash but can they hang another 4 years or so?
You’re right. OKLO not OKLA. Too many tickers, too many letters. I didn’t say to invest in them, just to investigate. lol
Common stocks are getting hammered, At least the ones I look at.
Just a guess, the herd is panicking having bought at higher prices and trying to recover some of their capitol or as Lt said in the Litter box earlier, people are seeing ghosts past of 2008 or maybe both.
With the forced layoffs in government, cutbacks in tech and I suspect with layoffs in manufacturing that may accelerate, cutbacks in government spending, then add in tax cuts that result in less taxes collected by the government, include a pinch of spice to the bubbling cauldron of stew less spending by consumers who are a big part of the economy and what do you have?
Is the plan that Trump & Bessent have going to work right away without any pain? Lower oil prices even with people using less, lower interest rates even though consumers and a lot of businesses are maxed out on credit and debt. Tax breaks and tariffs to force businesses to start manufacturing in the US.
I think this great reset is an experiment that no one is sure is going to work.
Will people demand higher wages to pay for higher costs? or if jobs are lost will prices drop and people be forced to take lower wages just to have a job?
Will automation and robotics take over manufacturing and doing the jobs no one wants to do? That will take time and money.
Everyone thinks its going to happen to the other guy not them.
I don’t know, except when you try to do a hard reset there is a tendency for things to quit working and instead of going forward you have to start over.
Unless the laws of physics have changed I can’t change direction while moving in my car without first slowing down and maybe even coming to a stop if I decide to do a 90 degree turn like these geniuses are planning. Then I have to start over accelerating to get back up to the speed I had been going at.
Rocket Mortgage is buying out Redfin RDFN for $12.50 a share later this year. RDFN is trading near $8 today. I am guessing the market is discounting the prospects of the deal going through, but there is a good bit of upside there if it does and I haven’t heard of any impediments to it closing, but I have not researched it.
Someone with time might want to look into it a bit more. I have some option plays set up where I come out OK either way.
All stock transaction for shares of RKT.
“Under the terms of the agreement, each share of Redfin common stock will be exchanged for a fixed ratio of 0.7926 shares of Rocket Companies Class A common stock…”
The press release I read said all stock for a value of $12.50 so a fixed ratio vs. a fixed price would explain the price movement.