The most important number of the day was the JOLTs (job openings and labor turnover) employment report showed softness is almost undoubtably here in the labor market. The softness was modest and in my mind supportive of a FOMC Fed Funds rate cut of 1/4%.
Employment is the most important piece of economic news (at least that is my opinion) –with strong employment recessions are held at bay and demand for goods and services remain high–so any softening starts to show cracks in the economy.
The JOLTs report for July shows that separations were up 336,000 with the largest layoffs in accommodations and food service which may show travel and dining out are softening.
The number of job openings at 7.7 million was about a million fewer openings than a year ago–actually a nice drift lower–Goldilocks?
So tomorrow we have ADP jobs and then on Friday the official government numbers of employment.
The 10 year treasury fell 3-4 basis points on release of the JOLTs numbers–now around 3.79%. Let’s see where this goes by the end of the week.