Author: Innovative Income Investor

It is a rare day that I turn the TV on during the day—but today is an exception as I do have an interest in what Jay Powell will have to say at 1:30 (central).

I am pretty certain there will be no change in interest rates now—but I am not sure what he will say about tariffs and the labor market.

No matter what will be said it is highly likely we will see the S&P500 spike up and down as the algo hang on every syllable of the ‘statement’ and then Q&A with Powell. This is interesting to watch–but in no way will it make me want to buy or sell—or jump off a high building.

One thing we know for sure is that all the pundits, whether it be on CNBC or Seeking Alpha will have something to talk about for the next few hours–or days. That’s all it will be is talk–the markets will tell us what they think by moving up or down–I don’t need the opinion of all these folks.

Of course what I am really asking is are you ready for more volatility? If your portfolio isn’t positioned how you want it now you may be kind of late to starting arranging your holdings. On a day like today all one can reasonably do is sit back and watch the action–no need to be thinking about buying or selling today because whatever happens today will be gone on Thursday and we will be on to the next ‘worry’–while continuing to ‘shop’.

Today we had housing start released and they showed surprising strength at 1.5 million units versus a forecast of 1.38 million units–but this just balanced a revised plunge in January. Its funny that the homebuilder confidence index tumbled to 38 which was 3 points under forecast. Without help from interest rates the home builders could hit a wall pretty soon–not yet, but if we tip into recession and unemployment rises there is going to be trouble. Our next BIG piece of economic news will be the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report which will be released a week from Friday. And of course on a daily (maybe hourly) basis we have tariff and other geopolitical items to deal with.

I was surprised today to log into one of my accounts and finding I actually bought 100 shares of the Hennessy Advisors 4.875% baby bonds @24.31. Shares were trading at a wide spread when I entered my order–the ask was 20 cents above my bid. I am happy with this small buy, but will enter another order at a lower level–say $24.10. The small buy brings my position up to around 1/4 of a full position so I have plenty of room to buy and improve my overall coupon over CDs and money markets.

So let’s all kick back and wait for the 1 p.m. (central) announcement on interest rates and more importantly the Powell presser which will follow at around 1:30 p.m.