Here is a Wall Street Journal article on predictions made by Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio–wrong predictions.
The article is here. This should be available to all with this link.
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12/26/2024
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The experts were ALL (90%) wrong going into 2023. And thru 2023. A recession was predicted. Soft/hard take your choice. They were convinced going long was not the move. Every road show was about… Buy this bond fund. Even the PE guys lost their voices.
Not only the top investment gurus. Their economists too. Not one MF or SMA wholesaler carried a long equity idea.
It wa startling. 30 years ago someone told me MF are always bullish. It’s all they have. Now they issued warnings.
But i don’t pretend staying long was easy
For instance nvda was down 70% thru 2022. Hit 90. I just sold a slug for a friend at 920. He was Up 500% in less than 2 years? 85% in 2024. That’s not repeatable.
The list of voices to have been proven wrong (in my time) go back to Joe Granville
Good move selling NVDA at 920 – most of the “investors” in that stock have no semblance of an exit strategy. Many have made bank but won’t sell till it hits $2000, $3000 or more per share. It’s nuts as they think multi-trillion market caps are possible selling what is basically a commodity product albeit one that they control at the moment. That won’t last very long…
I actually bought a big chunk of NVDS Friday when NVDA crossed 950 think $1000 was going to be an unsurmountable big round number in this run. NVDA is the 1.25x short NVDA ETF. I bought calls on it in my high risk trading account. Those call closed up almost 200% by the EOD and NVDA dropped another 2.5% afterhours. From the 974 high Friday, it closed 123 lower by the end of afterhours trading. I’ll probably dump my NVDS position tomorrow as I don’t want to overstay my welcome nor look the proverbial gift horse in the mouth but, this is so 1999-ish it’s crazy.
Haha you’re only proven right or wrong by tomorrow on WS and tomorrow ain’t here yet. I’d expect a 7 handle before 1000. But at this rate who knows. I expect 1200 in short order.
I haven’t figures at what share price it crests 3 trillion……
You know you are old when someone refers to Joe Granville, and you can remember him on the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson
I’ve done even better with AMD.
Bought in 2016 at $2 and sold few days ago at $210.
100x. Congrats Peppino.
Covid was a problem but “we” over reacted in hindsight and the govt over spent but with a full understanding we splurged with inflation being a quite obvious result. So the fed reserve raised interest rates. We all know the story.
What I did not realize was that the govt would just keep spending. I thought govt spending would level off and taxes would be raised to suck off excess cash circulating to help pay off the debt. I thought deficit spending would get closer to 2019 then what we see in 2023 which is getting close to the same spending spree we saw during covid.
With this said the fed reserve and the fed govt have spent it all. There is nothing left for next time unless you want debt that is difficult to comprehend. Inflation that seems tame compared to today. We really cannot afford to do this again anytime soon.
So that is what the guys in the article are saying. We just delayed a recession. What we did over the last 12-24 months cannot just be repeated again so soon. The fed govt cannot run a deficit of 1.9 trillion this year. 2.3 trillion in 2025. Etc… Eventually this merry go round has to stop. They are on track to get back to covid deficit levels with who knows where all this money is going. 2014 and 2015 deficit levels seem so quaint now days. I imagine if we “only” spent that much we would have had a recession. They had no idea that the federal govt could be so reckless after a huge covid spending spree. Are we at war? No. Are we deep in a recession? No. So why in the heck are we spending right now like drunken sailors?
Even the experts have never seen any economy in history managed actively by the Fed and Treasury as the one now. They have learned how to better drug the terminally sick patient and keep it alive longer.
Without that in place, it’s possible Dalio and Dimons predictions may have come true. Or it’s possible these guys say what they want you to do so they can profit off their doom prophecies. JP Morgan offers high rate brokered CDs so they obviously want to raise deposits for some reasons.
History never repeats exactly but it rhymes so I would recommend to stay vigilant. It’s usually when one mindset is maxed out that the rug gets pulled.
Given that a lot of datasets out there like the jobs report can definitely be challenged, I tend to still mainly stick to market technicals and some prudent risk management that allows some risk with contingencies in place.