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WRB up >7% today, WRB-E 21.96, 6.49% BBB- , call 2023
I don’t own this – so far
NEE-PN finally hit my bid at 22.79 which I had forgotten about. Entered a bid for a little more at 22.76. Sold out of it back in October but now at around 6.2% I’m interested again.
Just a note that credit spreads have widened a little, but if we tank later in the day I want to be short HYG,PFF, and MUB . I’m long higher quality in each sector, and am short small quantities of the first 3.
I think there are too many people who have a resistance to shorting anything.
I’d buy puts if I really knew what was going to happen…..the only time that worked for me was the GFC
I bought puts for hyg but the spread is weird and I had to test it at each nickel to get it to fill. it won’t cover much of the paper loss for all the hy component of the portfolio, but I’m buying more hy on the way down anyway since it’s reasonably clear to me that there won’t be anything on the short end of the curve at some point in the future. Do you match the position sizes so you fund your long treasury position with the proceeds from the short?
jb,
No, I am making a bet credit spreads widen.
ABLLL looks to be on sale again. It had an absurd run up last December, and now is back under par. The parent company’s basic plan is to buy up life insurance policies for cash at discount, and then hold them until the policy holder dies.
It’s a 9.875% coupon, callable in 2027, maturing in 2028. Current yield is a little over 10%, YTC is about 11%, YTM is in between. Do your own research, of course, but I think they are a bargain. I sold it too early in the last run up to fully benefit and just bought back in now.
I noticed they had a super quarterly which got me looking at the numbers…. a tough one to analyze because on the surface, they look pretty good for what it is, a 9 7/8% coupon senior note trading at a discount…. But then I saw what a gigantic amount of assets show up as good will…… yikes! Certainly not an easy one to figure out.
2WR I remember reading the first generation of insurers who came up with this business plan ran into problems. Abacus claims to have solved the issues that led to problems and companies getting out of this business.
SPMC, parent of SPMA, down 4.4%. Chart looks bad. BWDIK?
IBRX up 12.5% !!!!
Westie?
Back away from the roulette wheel. Don’t get so excited.
Quarterly report and investor day is coming up soon here in April.
Ask yourself, do you buy on the rumor and sell on the news? Especially when talking bio techs.
#1 sell and book a profit.
#2 sell 1/2 and book a profit and keep the rest depending on your cost.
#3 hold long term? Or trade in and out.
Points. Majority of the shares held by the CEO, lots of debt mostly IOU’s to the same CEO who has taken more shares as pik. On the public float lots of institutions own, but not large quantities. Still losing money and has an ATM program in place so will probably need to borrow more money or issue shares. Lots of potential coming up. Approval in GB and EU, allowed by the FDA to distribute a ingredient that MRK can’t provide enough of so there’s a shortage. Has their own plant in New York to produce the compounded drug. Potential approval for lung cancer. Besides the approval they already have for bladder cancer. Agreement with a chain of urology centers to use their drug. Tests on going for prostate cancer. Original focus 3 years ago was a treatment for pancreatic cancer.
So potential long term.
I apologize if I missed any points.
I only have a passing interest in the biotech space, and have placed a few losing bets. Do either of you have a recommendation for some generic overviews of how these orgs get their feet wet before they solicit the public for dollars and how those early securitizations happen? I’m aware that that part of the market has been more dormant than usual, and obviously know a bit about the big flops like SAVA, etc.
A local organization asked my partner and I to do a little investor / researcher education on the matter, and I’m looking forward to working on the project, but hoped that some of you might be kind enough to show me the literature that made the biggest impression on you….it’s not lost on me that the university (hospital / teaching hospital) to industry pipeline takes on a lot of different forms, but since all of you have so many years of experience on the investing side, perhaps you’d share anything that resonated with you…
always enjoy the commentary here, and may your riskier or less risky bets pay off (I’m starting to sell SGOV and buy some duration but slowly slowly …. KRP for the win too!)
jb, can’t help you with anything that would give you an edge. Even the experts like private equity can’t pick winners on a consistent basis.
Even the stock above being discussed, I ran across a stock investor who was a urologist and he posted he thought the treatment held promise but he knew nothing about judging if the company would be a successful investment.
I am always looking for a long term hold, but I’m willing to sell if a stock gets overvalued to the point the stock price is ridiculous.
I’m on this site because I learned after years of investing that income is better than chasing growth stocks that don’t pay a dividend.
I’m not even that interested in taking positions myself, I’m mostly just curious about the funding funnel and the phenomenon that lead to the public investment for the sake of the research —> industry pipeline itself. I mean, I know at some level that the addressable market has to be evaluated, the treatment (or method or bio-IP) has to be reviewed, etc…but it would be nice to read some stories about how the researchers slogged through the decade (??) or so to get to the xxx million dollars needed do the trial…more of a capital markets look less of a gambling look.
jb we could be looking at a lost decade in research without gov. spending. People today want instant results which is why there is so much love for AI.
1800’s was about wars, industrial and colonial expansion and exploration. people talked the government into spending on a lot of this and it was doable as wealth grew to support the government growth.
A group of scientists spent a decade studying DNA floating around in the ocean and matching it to every plant and animal living there. They didn’t get rich from doing it, probably developed skin cancer from exposure to so much sun. They were doing it because they love what they do. Where did all the funding to support this research come from? I suspect partly from the government. We have dumbed down what we teach in schools or allow, so we have several generations that don’t believe in science and question what this research accomplished and the waste of money spent on it.
Only it wasn’t a waste. They discovered an algae that is a symbiotic host to a simple cell that makes nitrogen out of the air and water for the algae and releases excess back out into the environment. The article I read said one use of this discovery would be for land based agriculture to engineer plants to make their own nitrogen so we can stop dumping tons of fertilizer on the plants.
Back to your question. The workings of how money is raised publicly to fund this research. I suspect this goes back to the organization who asked you and your partner to research how they can raise funding.
This site is more for personal investing for retirement and saving for retirement. The only person here who could possibly advise you is Private and I don’t know how to get a hold of him, although there may be others here who can help but they have only shared their interest in personal investing.
You might want to start your search over on the Silicon Investor website.
August West would be good as well. If my memory serves me, at one point he was the CFO of a biotech company in the Bay area. He resurfaced here and posted not too long ago.
There is a biotech forum in Silicon Investor that may be useful (biotech/medical):
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=60340
Investor Village also has a biotech forum:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=58
and an IBRX forum:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=20738
thanks for taking the time to write the comment. I’m somewhat connected to the local startup / VC culture and have a sense of what they like to fund and at what size of stake, but also get the impression that the trials themselves run in the mid nine figures and the investors who buy the ipo may only do so if they have a sense the NIH (et al), were going to pony up a massive sunk cost in a grant form to make the risk worth taking. Your general purview of ‘what government funds and why’ seems pretty on point to me, and I tend to think of the government / private investment machine as a pendulum that swings one way or the other at different times (rural electrification, pentagon/nasa developments turned over to industry, whatever the case may be). The organization that asked us to inform the researchers about capital markets ponies up a decent chunk of change to fund the research, but certainly can’t throw it’s weight around like the feds do, did, or might not do. This, and I recognize that not all investments in science are commercial enough to justify wall street involvement, and should probably be understood as Adam Smith’s ‘Political Economy’ and not as tools to create market returns. III, come for the hot takes on the preferreds, stay for the collective wisdom of a nice group of folks
Jb glad to meet you! Even if it’s only on this forum. I appreciate your posting on events related to history. The understanding of the universe of interconnected things.
Oh, I think we could manage to cut some gain of function funding and live without the next lab created, pandemic level virus.
I also think it is insulting and condescending of you to pretend that anyone who objects to a lot of the obvious waste or propagandizing is due to their education being dumbed down, or their lack of belief in “science” as if such a thing is synonymous with whatever the government is funding at any given time.
You should know better than to act like this. It is not appreciated, and it will not be allowed to pass unchallenged.
Best to you Scott on your investments. For a change you are the one who turned this into a political statement.
Bye
Bio-medical research is a low probability endeavor, with a huge potential payoff. It is best suited for the public dollar, not the impatient venture capital dollar. The best strategy is to fund many projects with small amounts, thereby maximizing the chance of getting the prized result, which is almost never apparent at the outset. Most biotechs will burn investor capital without producing a valuable product. I think the best biotechs are structured to have many irons in the fire — Roivant comes to mind. Still, not the best investment, IMO. It is far better to buy the companies that have a stable of successful products and are exploiting and buying new emerging technologies, such as Vertex.
IBRX like a bouncing ball. Big bounce up yesterday, down 9% today. Looking at the chart down over 60% from last May. But where does it go this year and next?
Dan and Westie, felt nice to be rich even if it was just for one day.
Dan, you’re asking questions, but I tried yesterday to explain.
Early bio tech is a trading vehicle. Not a longer term hold. There are too many day traders and professional traders working for funds or traders like Lt.
I like you clued in on the chart. You need to match the news to the chart.
#1 around August or October 2023 the FDA issued a CRL
(A complete response letter (CRL) is a notice issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) indicating that an application will not be approved in its present form)
In IBRX’s case there was no issue with the drug or the treatment, no side effects requiring additional testing. ( i.e. going back to the drawing board)
There was a problem with the manufacturing process that needed to be fixed to get approval. Company said X amount of time to get the problem fixed and re-apply to get FDA approval. Time marched on and investors got nervous with stock price going up and down. (trading, get it)
Finally application re-submitted. FDA saying it is allowed up to 6 months to make a decision.
#2 April 2024 rolls around. Look at the chart and see at the end of month the FDA finally issues a BLA ( Biologics license approval)
#3 the excitement dies down when people realize that qtr. financial report doesn’t include a full 90 days of sales and company is giving away treatment to induce sales and cash is running low so more money is going to be needed. You get bloggers and traders making and posting speculations trying to manipulate the stock over on SA. Even guessing total sales over life of patent.( give me a break)
#4 announcement trying to get approval of insurance companies to cover treatment and the get a J code assigned so Medicare will allow payment.
#5 Nov. look at chart. Stock tanks when no investor day is announced and sales are not growing as fast as investors hoped. Everyone wants a rocket to the moon, not a slow and steady wins the race.
#6 J code is approved first of the year, but this doesn’t have much of a reaction on the stock price because no announcement of how sales are doing. In the meantime other news such as possible use for lung cancer, partnering with another bio-tech to study this, possibility FDA may approve off use for lung cancer without going through a complete separate license application. FDA granting approval to use a different form of BRG manufactured in India and even approval for IBRX to sell this separately to urology cancer treatment centers since Merck can’t supply enough.
#7 Next possible catalyst upcoming, release of the quarterly report and stockholders meeting ( which has been announced and not cancelled like the one in Nov.)
Ok folks, I laid this snake out for you. Place your trades. I should have sold yesterday, locked in some gains and replaced shares I sold today. Why didn’t I do it? I’m looking at odds of getting caught trading too close to the April report and investor meeting.
Again with the advice. This is for trades until it becomes an established company. Dr. Soon owns 80% of the company. He sold his first company and he is 72? will he sell this one? anything is possible, but I think this is going to be his legacy. Also, in a race don’t forget to look over at the competitors in the race and see where they are at.
OK enough sharing and speculation BS
danzeb said: “But where does it go this year and next?” A rhetorical question.
We don’t know where IBRX will be next month or a year from now but with enough information we can put odds on a guess. I don’t own any but it’s interesting enough that I’m adding it to a watch list.
Thanks Charles M for the very detailed response.
Big whoop. Back to where I bought it.
What Rocks? you didn’t buy more as it went down then sold the higher cost shares when it popped!
rocks and Charles
IBRX
My initial buy was at $2.99.
Thanks to the expertise on this site – of which you two rank high IMHO – I put in a GTC at $2.70.
Which hit.
Now, like Charles says, what to do?
What the hell, if you bought a long shot horse thinking it might win.
Then it won one race and you got an offer slightly above your purchase..
Sell it?
Nah.
Ride it for a while.
Keeping in mind Tim’s comments about his biotech experience.
Interview of Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, the founder of IBRX
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/existential-billionaire-cancer-researcher-says-covid-vaccine-likely-causing-surge
Two thoughts on BC-C:
– It’s going lower
– BC-B was called. Will BC-C be called?
BC Exposure to tariffs appears to be driving the common down and pulling preferreds with it. This is not new news but looks like a buying opportunity for BC-B especially with ex-div only days away.
I have a 2002 Sea Ray 185, so this is a sentimental fav for me.
XLY, consumer discretionary, has been weak.
Priority Income PRIF-M incoming
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1554625/000155462525000027/a20250326-prifmnx2.htm#i7f034068e0424b1a82d800cc9523a9ad_28
that whole series trades very thin ;
Ted, I would have to deal with Nanny Fido , rated by Eagan Jones and most trade below par. telling me they are not well liked by investors especially the ones out 4 years.
SPNT-B There’s been a seller on B all day long @ 25.17….. Seems attractive to me…. 25.17 = slightly over 8% YTC date 2/26/26. B will RESET ON 2/26/26 @ 5 YEAR TREAS + 7.298 if it is not called and then will not be callable again for another 5 years…… NR/BB+ Seems highly likely to not make it past 2/26/26.
Just broke 25.17 and moved to 25.16 sales
If called on 2/26/26, would the dividend accrual for the month of February be 26/30 of the entire month?
Interesting question, GnG. I’ve never taken the time to find out how that actually gets figured for a Feb pay, no less with one 2 days before the normal pay date …… I just trust the calculator as determining it properly according to standards set by the industry. I’ve never even tested to see how what it comes up with compares with using an assumption such as yours……sounds like what you’re saying should be right.
GnG and 2wr,
From what I read in the prospectus:
1. FULL divs are calculated on the basis of twelve 30-day months, but PARTIAL divs are calculated on the basis of the actual # of days elapsed. Prospectus, p. S-13.
2. If redeemed, the final div will accrue up to the day before the call date. If the call date for SPNT-B is 2/26/26, the final div will accrue through Feb 25.
Prospectus, p. S-17.
I get a partial, final, div, accruing 25 days in February, and being called the next day, on 2/26/26.
Here’s the SPNT-B prospectus.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576018/000110465921087047/tm2120188-3_424b5.htm#tDOSB3
Thanks mbg. If called the dividend corresponding to that last quarter should be $0.47
thats what i think as well ; have 700 @ 25.22
I don’t think these are too illiquid but the SCE are trading at higher yields today. SCE.PRL is at 7.14% right now. I own some but not a recommendation. They have the CA fire situation that they have to deal with but I do know there are some of us that think they’ll make it through.
caveat emptor
I bot fgn 7.95 perpetual at 25.78 (25.73 stripped) for 7.03 ytc 12/15/2028… the fgn/sjnk pair has gone from near 3 sigma rich in december to over 2 sigma cheap today and near all time low set near inception 12/2023
Nice trade mjtroll. For anyone that can’t pay over par in a taxable account, FGSN is a good trade here also now @ $24.60 with a 7.30% coupon.
tks.. would recommend article on S/A titled FGSN: a 7.3% Baby Bond from F&G Annuities & Life by Arbitrage Trader dated 1/27
and excerpt from it
FGSN is fairly priced compared to OTC debt but overvalued relative to exchange traded debt, better options with higher credit quality exist in the sector
because it was recently issues not enough history to make a judgement relative to vclt
why can’t you pay over par in a taxable account ?
I seem to recall some of us III’ers, including Grid, holding debt of The Phoenix Insurance Company. Moody’s affirmed its IFSR (Baa1) ratings and changed it’s outlook from Negative to Stable.
https://www.moodys.com/research/null-Moodys-Ratings-affirms-The-Phoenix-Insurance-Companys-Baa1-IFSR-outlook-Rating-Action–PR_1000011093?cid=GAR9PTU7VKT2671&emailToken=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJVc2VySWQiOiJkYzVkYjczMC01NTBiLTQ3ZjctYjhjZi05NzY2ZjAxZmU0MzMiLCJEb2NJZCI6IlBSXzEwMDAwMTEwOTMiLCJjcmVhdGlvbkRhdGUiOiIyMDI1LTAzLTI2VDA4OjU4OjI5LjAzMjQ5OTQtMDQ6MDAiLCJleHAiOjE3NDMyNTMxMDksIlVzZXJOYW1lIjoiY3BhbWlrZW1iYUB5YWhvby5jb20iLCJVc2VyVHlwZSI6IjIifQ.n6o9iiEAi3IwOM1V4CADqLjMlhjIG_PWDJYxhwgxltc#0572b961dceedc105347b4ba6f05cd6f
This is good news as I have a position in this thanks to several on this site. Only problem is trying to understand their financial statements. Really could use an insurance industry CFO to comment.
Looks like the Moody’s article is about a different company, the company that issued the old Phoenix 7.45 QUIBS is now known as The Nassau Companies of New York. https://nfg.com/investor
Thanks, dave.
Bloomberg reporting ATT is in talks to acquire Lumen’s fiber optic, LUMN down 10.5%, T is up
T making a wise acquisition? Hmmm. They are so used to just paying other companies billions to not merge with them.
B. Riley Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ: RILY), a diversified provider of financial services, announced today it has reached an agreement to reduce its total outstanding debt by approximately $35 million through a private exchange with an institutional investor. ..
https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/b-riley-financial-cuts-debt-by-35-million-in-bond-exchange-93CH-3948969
LONDON, UK, March 26, 2025 /CNW/ – Atlas Corp. (“Atlas” or the “Company”) announced today that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared cash dividends on its preferred shares as follows…
https://ir.atlascorporation.com/2025-03-26-Atlas-Declares-Quarterly-Dividends-on-Preferred-Shares
Boy it’s a good thing themajor rating agencies don’t rate B. Riley….. I think RILY would hate to hear their interpretation of this debt reduction maneuver… They’re cutting $35 million by exchanging $123 million of senior debt for $88 million of junior debt and additional equity vehicles……
It’s fun to watch a flailing investment bank try to dig itself out of a hole, isn’t it?
Maybe someday they’ll even get current with their reporting obligations.
B. Riley continues to chip away at its debt…good news for investors in RILYK and to a lesser extent RILYG.
Sound Point Meridian Capital preferred Series B (SPMB?) incoming:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1930147/000182912625002029/soundpointmeridian_n2.htm
Ken,
It’ll be some other ticker. SPMB is the SPDR Portfolio Mortgage Backed Bond ETF.