Well how are we going to end the year– can we get a late year rally or will we see the continuation of some profits taking? Of course no one knows–but there are plenty of unknowns for the year ahead so maybe we will simply tread water for the week. On the other hand it is likely interest rates will be in the drivers seat and with the 10 year closing last Friday at 4.62% I am concerned that we could see a push higher which would likely torpedo any rally chance
Last week we had the S&P500 move around in a just less than 3% range but ended the week up from the previous Friday by just under 1%. The index continues at just around 2% below all times highs–while it feels painful to some obviously a 2% setback is nothing.
Interest rates climbed higher once again closing at 4.62%–10 basis points higher than the close the previous Friday and 22 basis points above 2 weeks ago. We are at the highest weekly close since Friday April 24th which closed at 4.65%. This week is another quiet week as far economic data is concerned with no real market moving data on inflation slated to be released.
The Federal Reserve balance sheet contracted by another $4 billion with the Fed leaving the ‘run off’ in place at the last FOMC meeting.
Once again the average $25 preferred stock and baby bond took a fall last week. The average share fell by 21 cents to the lowest level since the week ending 6/28/2024. Investment grade issues fell by 32 cents, banks fell by 21 cents with CEF preferreds off 3 cents, mREIT issues 20 cents with shippers off just 2 cents.
Last few minutes of the year could be wild with last minute trading mostly by the robots. I’ll be there on several computer screens ready for anything. Surprise me.
mbg,
All the fund rebalancing should have ended. I’d look for mergers closing on the last day of the year. Typically, there would be a large buy imbalance of the acquirer and a large sell imbalance on the target at the close of trading.
I’ve been told there are a few really small illiquid deals closing, but I don’t follow risk arb deals much anymore.
Thanks, lt.
I was kinda hoping to get a reply from you. I was interested in your thoughts on this matter.
Good morning, all III’ers.
“Well how are we going to end the year– can we get a late year rally or will we see the continuation of some profits taking?”
We may have opportunities in some selected securities.
1. Tax loss selling – two more days available.
2. Year-end (like quarter-end and month-end) portfolio re-balancings in some funds.