Markets–and in particular interest rates are quiet–the 10 year treasury yield is less than 1/2 basis point from the close yesterday.
I am pretty certain that we all know there is a 1/4% rate coming and then the Jay Powell presser will stress that GDP is decent and employment is strong and there may be a need to ‘pause’ further rate cuts. This would give the markets almost exactly what they are looking for right now. The CME Fed Watch tool is at 98% for a 1/4 point cut today, but only at 19% for January for a cut. Unless we see something drastic happen in the economy the FOMC will not cut in January with numbers like that. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow has 4th quarter GDP at 3.2% as of today–not exactly a soft growth picture. Let’s get this noise behind us so we can invest.
15 minutes of trading left. This is ugly……and painful.
Wowzer – dow off 1123 and nas off 70% of that.
What part of the announcement was a real surprise? Two in ’25 or getting to target in ’27?
Almost everything down – gold, commodities, stocks, crypto, most bonds and preferred. 10 yr treasury up.
Time to scan my portfolios and look for bargains although same thing can happen tomorrow or not.
Powell told the truth at the end of the news conference. Some members of the Fed are considering the risk of tariffs, some are not.
The Fed made a mistake in 2020/2021. Looks like some members are facing the reality that tariffs increase prices and it is impacting how they vote. Yes, nobody knows the details of tariffs, but some members of the Fed may not keep cutting until they do.
Some issues getting more attractive. I will hold to see how high the 10 year goes in the next day or two.
So far, portfolio of just stocks (not cash equivalents –about40% ) is down about 1% since the 12/6 high — half or more of it today. Looks like it is continuing lower, but not yet buying.
GAINI holding around 25.23, 6¢ B/A spread.
market dislocations are our friend. get the checkbooks out
So Pig what is on your Christmas shopping list?
Charles, good question. Most likely will make a large purchase of some TIPS and maybe start to nibble on the 10 Yr Treasury. The coupon on that is 2.5 times what I need to survive, so that is very tempting right now. It’s a very romantic thought to “be done with investing” and kicking back and moving on to other things in life. I’m much more likely though to make it hard on myself and trudge along trying to juice yield somewhere. My guess is that I will stay in my lane and buy good stuff (BBB and up), staying away from high risk bucket. I should ask the same question for you.
Sounds like I need to lower my survival costs …would that I could only sell the 70% of my house I never use, yet not have anyone move into it.
As of right now glancing through stuff I own I am not seeing a big down day for preferred, BB, etc… Even muni which I have been following a bit closer is just pricing down a wee bit.
Nothing to get excited over yet!
Well D, I have said it before. People panic and sell when they see the market dropping. Nothing big, right now down about 342 on the Dow and all the rest are off about 1% also. 1-1/2 hours to go in regular trading. See how much the alog programs all fuel to the fire.
See if buyers rush in at the end and save the day. My accounts are going to see red but then a few GTC limit orders might hit
So what happened to the Xmas rally? This being an election year we already had a rally and now we are having the hangover!
Even oil and gold went negative territory.
Long end going higher, will keep the pressure on long duration income (duh). Not sure I really understand why the recent relentless upward direction on long rates.
Wow, markets are dancing the Lemming Leap – fad or feature?
Original D–sure wasn’t expecting this selloff.
Unknown unknowns – wonder what’s next.