Today is the day that we finally begin to put the elections to bed–of course we know it will drag out a few days beyond today.
As some have mentioned this is mostly just ‘noise’–which I believe to be the case. The election will end and we will go about our business. There is nothing I will do different right now as far as investing–down the road maybe, but for now nothing at all.
Just a friendly reminder that politics is generally off limits on the website. I have noticed some minor commenting, but nothing to get excited about. I will be watching comments, but am not going to go overboard on an occasional very brief mention of the results etc.
Users who liked this:
I’m in a battle ground state and haven’t received a political email nor a text message all day!!!!!!!!
What would be accomplished by sending a message today?
Phishing attacks. Still getting a few texts asking for me to congratulate the winners or donate to cover costs. Wanting me to click on the button and respond.
Boy, will I be glad when the election is over and the political ads end! I live in one of the battleground states and it has been unceasing. No matter who wins this election I see there will be opportunities and also some losers. Our challenge as investors in debt equities such as preferreds, notes, and bonds is to pick the winners to invest in and sell the losers before they become the real losers. A possible scenario as an example…. If Mr. Trump wins and manages to enact all of his tariffs there may be a building boom going on for years as new manufacturing facilities are built to replace all the imported things. The money to build these has to come from somewhere and there could be some really juicy debt equities available for us to invest in. I just have to figure out how the election results affects my investing strategy.
Respectfully, I don’t think that will be what happens given the Trump victory. If he follows through on tariffs, and if he follows through on deportations (or doesn’t), since we are at near full employment, I simply don’t see how companies will be investing in building plants here when we will not have the workforce to fill these jobs. It just doesn’t work like this and it is why so many economists don’t see tariffs as a positive for anyone or anything.
I am hopeful someone will make this point to him before he goes this route, especially if he goes the route of mass deportations, which will compound the problems. While the stock market experienced a sugar high today, I think the bond market really indicated potential trouble that might be brewing with policies likely to blow out the nation’s debt. Regarding tariffs, if he slaps a triple tariff on Mexico like promised, here comes the recession.
Agreed.
Mexico demonstrated masterclass negotiations for both NAFTA and NAFTA2. And they’ll do it again on NAFTA3, if that is the way we wish to go, because, in the end, we need them as much as they need us, if not more. And, yes, I love Mexico. Incredibly kind, hard-working people.
On deportations, if attempted, it will be stuck in the courts for years. Better option would be to normalise current undocumented residents (separate from illegal border crossings) and address future entries with stricter policies, if that is the route we want to go. Alas, we need immigrants to grow our economy (population) as we are not producing enough workers internally to do so at a pace that retains our status as #1. Problem is, the rest of the world has run out of poor white emigrants.
Will, just a couple examples. nursing homes and convalescent facilities. For years Phillipino’s saw this as a way to enter legally into the US and the work force.There are ( were) multiple schools set up to teach English and train. But as our population ages there is not enough staff. Americans don’t want to go into these jobs. When I visited my mother in a nursing hoime 8 yrs ago it was obvious they were already short staffed.
Then tech factories. Biden has tried to get Taiwan chip manufacturers to build plants here. It has taken years and they have said our work force here is not well trained to work in these factories like the labor they have over there.
It will take years to build plants and train workers and during that time we will still need products produced overseas , just with tariffs we will be paying more for them. In the meantime CHS, ADM and other exporters of american farm products will be faced with retaliatory tariffs in other countries making our farm products more expensive to buy than the same things from Argentina and Brazil.
Tim have you or anyone else ever looked into the BCE (formerly Bell Canada) OTC preferred offerings? One is fixed and the other floats, with the floater yielding around 9.6% and pays monthly. BCE is rated BBB.
I took a look. The ratio of FCF to preferred divi’s is pretty good but the company is paying out all of its FCF in common dividends and the common is selling at a yield of almost 10% after a decline of 30-40%. At a yield that high, isn’t the market expecting a cut in dividends? I am going to wait for that cut which will knock down the preferred even lower? Hard to find the floating terms ?
They mentioned holding common dividends flat along with recent news of the Ziply fiber aquisition which was dilutive to the common via drip. What is odd is that the floating rate E issue yields 9.6% vs 5.8% for the F issue fixed.
The other thing I don’t understand is why the preferred shares trade so low to par at $11.68 (par being 18.25 after converting from CAD).
I had to ask IR for the prospectus, which they promptly sent and can be found here:
BCE_PE.TO Stock Price, Quotes, Charts, Price History & Splits/Events | BCE Inc.
I clearly own the floating rate E shares however they show up in Schwab as BECEF which further adds to the confusion!
Dan–I never have but no doubt someone here has looked at them–maybe I should.
Tim, Have you looked at CWEN.A?
Remember the ending song from the movie Poseidon Adventure? Who will sing the Morning After tomorrow? A duet of Lee Greenwood and Lady Gaga?
I’m sure we will all want to know how it turns out…get your news here.