It is kind of amusing that so much time was spent on speculation on Federal Reserve taper talk–maybe that was what was needed–so much awareness that there was no BAD reaction to tapering timelines in the equity markets.
The 10 year treasury is up 7 basis points to 1.40% right now–so we are seeing a jump in interest rates–but a manageable jump. Remember that the reaction in the preferred stock and baby bond sector will be very muted if changes in rates are slow–over a course of days or weeks. Speed kills–I don’t want to see a 1/8 or a 1/4% move in 1 day–markets will get spooked.
Right at this moment the average $25 preferred stock and baby bond is UP 2 cents from the close last Friday–no overall reaction at all to annoucements or interest rate increases.
Two paraphrases come to mind:
– When the levee breaks, everybody gonna get wet…
– Can I do it until I need glasses?
Should the end of the 3rd quarter positioning have any effect on preferred/baby bond prices? I guess I’m asking what do equity/bond managers traditionally attempt to do at the end of the 3rd quarter.
End of quarter could have a short term effect if fund managers make large moves in lower volume issues. Hard to predict you just have to be watching for it.