At this moment I am out of dry ‘powder’ and awaiting my September redemptions of CDs to begin to hit next week. As always there will be something to buy in a week–don’t know what that is yet, but lots of time to ponder it.
Well the party in common shares continues even with the supposed disappointment in Nvidia earnings. When someone stumbles others pick up the slack. Best Buy is flying and up $13/share–this is one I never understood as BBY is pretty much a non growth story and usual results in the last few years are just less bad than lowered expectations–I don’t really view them any differently than General Motors etc–over time pretty lethargic.
Todays economic data was not really supportive of a 1/2% rate cut next month by the FOMC. Jobless claims remained around 230,000 which is pretty much where they have been in most recent weeks and months. The 2nd read on 2nd quarter was revised higher to 3% from 2.8%. On the other hand pending home sales fell sharply from last year. This is the 1 sector that could be hurting as we enter the fall and winter–with 6 of 7 homeowners in mortgages with less than a 6% interest rate they are biting at rates of 6.4 or 6.5% (or higher depending on your credit score).
So now I wait on the PCE report tomorrow–then we will have an inflation read–will it support a 1/4% cut or a 1/2% cut? Who knows!!
RF F
When I see ZIONO went over 26…and many others 7’s over 27…its time to raise some cash too!
Tim –
Is the “Like” button going to come back? It seems to have disappeared en toto for now
2WR–thanks for the heads up. It was off for a day until I paid the annual fee for it, but then was on and fine. I have looked at all the settings and it should be on (but isn’t)–I am thinking it is something on the ‘like button’ supplier end of things. I will keep working on it.
Thanks, Tim – Sounds like another reason for everyone to send in those donations… I like the Like.
With Costco priced at 55 x earnings, who thinks things are not too richly priced :)?
I like my cheap food court food, but come on!
Retail seems very company specific w no rhyme or reason. BIG bankruptcy potentially, DG whacked, WMT COST booming, WBA a mess, HD/Lowes hum along, I hope my DG stays open it is smaller than most of their stores but bustling. Nice employees they have been there a while. Not finding much to buy either Tim.
As I have posted in housing I am long the non cum HOVNP which is stuck (a good thing I think!) at 18 fine w me, HOV the company is doing really well and is going to partner w Saudi to build housing there?! And some insider sales including a Hovnanian. Well it has run up SO much maybe makes sense guessing short squeeze and caught up in small cap mania plus things have been going well for them, debt paydown, upgraded credit ratings. the Compass r/e (agents) CEO was saying flood gates will open at 5.99% mortgages look out, and probably some homebuilders are buying down mtges for folks to show sub 6 although inventories are low. Wild times.
Bea, cruising down the aisles of my local BIG looking for deals but not buying much as there is nothing I need. I feel for the workers left, although holiday hiring is coming up how many of these retail jobs are there?
Same with the market. You know I don’t like trading but do it on occasion. Right now raising cash. I might be a little late to the party to sell and a little early to buy is how I have been feeling. I read about Berkshire but I am no follower. See how for the past several months the company has sold almost a billion of BOA stock and some AAPL raising more cash. At 95 I’m not sure how involved Warren is in the day to day running of the company but if he is waiting for the next big deal he could be joining Sam Zell in waiting.
For now I am up to about 23% money equivalents and about half that is backing GTC orders. I’m an outdoor person at heart and I smell change in the air. Just don’t know if we go up from here or down.
Anyone here still own FITBI the floating preferred that currently yields over 9% (SOFR+3.71%+.261%)?
They just called their relatively small Sr. Pref floater (5.852% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due October 27, 2025, CUSIP 31677QBT5) and wondering if this FITBI is next in line for redemption.
The fact that it is trading $25.9x means it priced or mis-priced for not being called for the next few quarters? Even if not called for next 4 dividends of $0.586 it is yield to call of 5.6%!
How to decide when to sell such callable preferred trading quite above par?
Thanks for the head’s up, mSquare.
I still hold my small position. After reading your post, I put in an order to sell.
About a month to the next ex-date, so hopefully it’ll run up and I’ll get out.
I decided to sell (at my price) because that’s not a great YTC even after four more divs.
Not that I know if it truly makes a hill of beans difference for sure, but the issue being called was issued at the subsidiary level while FITBI is at the holding company level…. That, plus the near term maturity of the issue being called might explain its call more than anything else and might also say that there may not be a strong reason to think that the call on the NOTE [NOT a preferred like FITBI] issued by Fifth Third Bank N.A., puts FITBI [issued by Fifth Third Bancorp] directly in line for a call…. BTW, this “relatively small” issue appears to be twice the size of FITBI…. https://ir.53.com/news/news-details/2024/Fifth-Third-Bank-Announces-Redemption-of-Senior-Bank-Notes-due-October-27-2025/default.aspx
I still think the market is too exuberant and when the party or reality sets in there will be a disappointment.
I’m voting for a cautious approach from Powell and a 1/4% rate cut to start out. Which I think the market has already priced in.
I agree that the market as a whole is richly priced by any metric.
I don’t yet have a feel for if preferred stocks have more appreciation in store – it seems logical that as the Fed Funds rate drops, the dividends of preferred stock become more valuable.
But at some point in the cycle, financials will get stressed, and yield differentials will then widen between Fed Funds and preferred stocks.
So, I am not a buyer of preferred stocks, but a nervous holder of preferred stocks. I love the dividends, but I am staying close to the exit door.
And I am staying the hell away from any private equity in any form.
Dono , reminds me of my college days! Go down to the part of town where the commercial fishing boats moored and a few dive bars. Me and my friends were underage but they served us. Sit with your back to the wall and be ready to bail out the back door.
Charles, Guess all under aged kids did that. My friends and I made fake ID and went to a bar where the Hell Angles hung out and got served and at the end of the night the bartender offed to sell us LCB cards which is the gold standard for ID to get served in PA.
Jaberstein, my cousins might have been showing off but when I visited one time they ordered a keg from the distributor when their parents weren’t home and in PA I guess you could get home delivery. We took it down to the hunting camp and played cards all night.
We use to have dive bar where the drafts beers were 15cents. And Bette the bartender was essentially blind and would serve anyone regardless of age. 13 wasn’t too young.