Study, study, study is mostly what I do—lots more studying than buying or selling and in the end I still don’t have a real clue as to what is going to happen next.
Really I am itching to buy some perpetuals-but there is zero inflation data out there that includes tariff effects. I suppose it will be another month before we see information on what is happening, but today we did have economic news in the durable goods orders. The number was huge–up over 9%, but if you strip out planes and autos it was very soft–essentially unchanged from the prior month.
Jobless claims remained where they have been for months–would seem to me that they should be rising some with the claimed government layoffs, but we aren’t seeing it yet. How much has DOGE saved so far? I am thinking not very much.
GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed was updated today and it still shows a GDP forecast of minus 2.5%—while the Dallas Fed updated their model today and it shows GDP forecast of 2.68% growth. Between them they tell us nothing at all.
So we will see how markets close in the last hour of the trading day–I want to see the 10 year close at the lows of the day–unlike yesterday when it started low and climbed all day. The 10 year carries a yield of 4.32% right now–7 basis points lower on the day.
“How much has DOGE saved so far? ”
Nothing measurable yet. From Jan 20 to March 31 the WSJ reports that total government spending is up $145B in 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024 and 2023.
P R O P A G A N D A.
P R O P A G A N D A.
Pure and simple. Again, a 9 second web search reveals the answer to the question: https://doge.gov/savings
If one can trust numbers from the left-biased WSJ, subtract the 145 in “spending” from the 160 “saved” by DOGE and we’ve all come out ahead, or no? It’s a bit stunning how folks throw around the term “billions” like it’s just pocket change anymore.
Just imagine where we’d be if we got rid of the “people” that are all about power, big bloated government and confiscatory taxation. Just imagine.
The numbers are from the Department of Treasury. The WSJ simply reported them. The DOGE website is not an official or audited accounting of government finances. The extra $145B in extra spending in 2025 is after whatever (if anything) DOGE has saved.
You can verify the numbers here::
https://home.treasury.gov/data/receipts-outlays
Official and audited authoratitive source, I guess? The same type of source that flat out lied about ~818K jobs they officially stated existed but was a total lie? That same type of official and audited source? Sounds like you are still in the camp of those like Yellen that officially stated inflation was just transitory and that $3 trillion is NEEDED each year for climate change financing. The official oracle herself also had this for us: “The exploding federal debt is not a problem.” Only last June, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reassured the public that the federal debt ($34.7 trillion at the time) was not a major concern. She told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin, “If the debt is stabilized relative to the size of the economy, we’re in a reasonable place.”. Her boss then proceeded to run it up another trillion plus. The official stance of Jay Powell is that the fiscal debt is “unsustainable”. I am reassured by official stances and official stats from authoritative people.
I’m guessing that unemployment claims from government layoffs aren’t reflected in the data yet because a lot of those RIF’s continue to get paid until something like September. If you’re still getting paid your full salary I don’t believe you can file for unemployment.
Plenty of people have already been laid off but the government claimed it was for performance reasons rather than economic reasons. That makes them ineligible for unemployment. That is currently being challenged in court because they literally stated they were doing layoffs based on seniority as opposed to performance. So eventually those people could become eligible for unemployment.
I love this site, and read it every day.
The financial commentary outweighs the fluff and angst— by a ton. Keep it going!
I don’t see anything wrong with the site as is. There have been a few personal attacks. The reason for so much “off-topic” content is the radical change in the investing environment and economic uncertainty. The Sandbox serves as a place to discuss whatever is most relevant, and that changes over time.
Pundits were shouting “fire” in a crowded movie theater. Many evacuated and want to come back in.
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Bought my first baby bond today — SOJF. Thank you for the informative site.
Most of my porfolio is in precious metals / miners and trying to diversify into solid longer-term yields. Been a very good year thus far but a financial advisor would have been shot for managing a portfolio in the same manner I do. I’m not a financial advisor and I don’t mind the risk of putting all my eggs in one basket and watching it closely. Ironically, all my attempts to diversify away from precious metals in 2025 have not been as lucrative as standing firm. If I wasn’t already so overweight miners, I’d take a bite of HL-PB. I bottom fished a few 15% yielding equities earlier in the month but they will get creamed in another sell-off just like they did in the last one and those yields are not protected as much as I’d like — so I threw them back with a small gain. Though I have been accumulating a 12%+ yielder in the oil & gas royalty space as a longer term investment.
I am operating on the belief that the FOMC will come off pause no later than June, and then continue to lower for the next year … at least. So trying to lock in yield now while the getting is good. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are at full throttle on QE within 12-18 months, inflation be damned.
Was looking for a marginable security in a relatively recession proof sector. I try not to borrow on margin but I do sell cash covered calls opportunistically. Happy that SOJF offers better than 6% yield, and nearly 5 years until first call. I also like that it is rated investment grade and SO’s coverage area is poised for continued population growth long into the future. Will continue to add, especially below par, if I get any opportunity to do so. Had considered SREA but it ran away from me and the added risk doesn’t justify the marginably better yield in my opinion
What is going on or not going with the tariffs will have a major effect on investing, so it wouldn’t be wise to overlook or not discuss it.
I retired from a construction managing position and can’t even imagine how any project out for bid can handle this unknown. The equipment, material and labor cost make up the largest dollar amount of any bid and these projects need to lock in those buy out amounts for the life of the project.
Can’t imagine how this is being handled with tariffs being an unknown.
I agree, maybe this is a lame idea but how about a page called ” Way Off Topic” where people who want to post anything about anything including politics or links to articles about anything can do so ? Those who go there will be entering at their own risk, but at least it keeps it off the investing pages.
Too edgy maybe ?
Well fwiw I do have opinion since asked. Am fairly new to this site. Like the lists of preferreds and baby bonds and especially like the laundry list. Wish the commentary were directed toward these financial instruments. Maybe a buy and sell thread for all to discuss their actions on one thread-e.g. is it a safe buy, trends in its price, an individual’s criteria for buys, reset conditions if applicable, things like that. The commentary for me is, to be frank, largely a turn off, dominated by recency bias fears and predictions. No one knows where interest rates or markets will go in the short run. In the long run equity indexes go higher. Interest rates who knows. But if the site is suppose to be focused on preferreds and baby bonds (and has wandered) not sure I get much of the commentary. It is why now I still read but stopped posting. But it is not my site and again I do appreciate the lists of preferreds and baby bonds. Not that many places discuss these instruments, a few but not many. Just my feedback since asked.
Tacitus,
Not sure if this is helpful. Different reasons for holding a lot of different preferred’s, baby bonds, and Corp bonds. I keep over 50 in one account and had different reasons when I bought each and things change as time goes on. I compartmentalize my holdings depending on risk or if it’s my wife’s account and I have 5 accounts spread across 2 brokerages. I hold a few equities and was starting to buy more but I backed out as the market is too volatile to tell anything about where we are going. There is way too much to cover in one post.
Everyone’s goals and tolerance for risk varies.
In my wife’s account I take what I think is moderate risk. I try not to sell at a loss and I am now doing just nibbles or smaller purchases and I am not as eager to average down.
Her account hit a high in mid Oct 2024 since then it has been up and down. In the last 6 months it hit a low of about a -3% loss and currently is at about -2% or so. I live with this. My wife withdraws about 60% of the income annually and the rest goes back into the pot.
There are no CD’s, Treasuries, except for a ultra short term Treasury MM fund to park cash in. I consider the account almost fully invested with having just 16% cash in the MM fund.
What I can tell you is there are only 3 holding that account for most of the loss.
A royalty Trust yielding 8% on cost, SCE Preferred’s and a bio-tech common that pays no dividend so is the highest risk position of the 3 in the account and these 3 account for most of the 3% to 2% losses in the value. The income keeps growing and covers our needs.
Nothing in this account has cut dividends or quit paying, knock on wood.
Thanks for that feedback Tacitus—I will try to redirect. The biggest problem I have is that we are now in the 20th year of me publishing and it is always tough to have topics of interest.
That is kind of what I thought. But the field of preferreds and baby bonds is the area of interest. A zillion places pontificate about direction of markets and news. Aka financial porn. What make the lists valuable for me is a place to search for buys of what I consider safe good income. Suggest use that as core topic. (If wish to expand then natural extension is bonds, treasuries, agencies, cds and money markets. ) And then can discuss specific potential purchases. The whys or why nots. May seem boring if comparing to CBS Marketwatch. But boring that helps me find more, so can diversify, safe purchases in current range of 6%, or places to park cash, is personally what I want. Maybe others too. I like the idea of one thread that all can post for their buys and sells and discussion. Just easier to spot and review. Ok that is my 2 cents fwiw.
Tim—I’m worried that this website is in danger of imploding. Today’s sandbox comments show once again that politics and financial investments are clearly interwoven in today’s world. It’s getting worse each day on III.
Maybe you should consider a temporary shutdown/suspension—a cooling off period if you will. This will give people a chance to reflect on their appreciation of your website. Perhaps after a week or two, people will be more diligent in staying away from politics as much as possible.
Otherwise, people will just stop even opening your website and, before you know it, III will be a dead man walking. I certainly hope not, but I think it’s a possibility the way things are going.
If anyone else has any suggestions, by all means, please post them.
Whidbey–I think the best answer is for me to have the comment stream on my screen for continual monitoring.
It would be great if folks sometimes were a little more thoughtful before hitting the post button. I don’t think any sort of “time out” is warranted, although if someone feels a personal need to do that, that seems like an okay thing.