Consumer prices came in somewhat softer in June as compared to forecast. Month over month inflation came in at a -.1% versus forecast of +.1%, Year over year came in at 3.0% versus a forecast of 3.1%.
At this moment the 10 year treasury is trading at 4.19%–continuing to trend lower.
Jobless claims came in at 220,000 which is a bit lower than I would want to see, but all in all kind of neutral.
Equities are up, but not as much as one would have believed they would be after favorable inflation news–the DJIA is up around 90 points and the S&P500 is up 1/3%. Maybe it will be a ‘sell the news’ day–we’ll see.
Is the July FOMC meeting going to bring a fed funds rate cut? I would think it is still September is still the month–always need more data.
People I put no faith in whatsoever are saying 5 rate cuts thru 2025
I put no faith in any of these predictions nor do I disbelieve them. Stay nimble and be ready to respond to anything. Except daily news blurbs.
JNK gap up above recent consolidation range.
Tim,
I think you give the Fed more kudos than it deserves when it comes to making data driven decisions. I think the market guides them to certain conclusions. I don’t think the 2 yr treasury yield asked for Powell’s permission before lowering 🙂
legend.vs–maybe so, but I have beat them up so much over the years–always late and mostly wrong maybe I should give one ‘attaboy’.
Definitely odd today- S&P neg 330, Dow +90 — oh, wait– it’s the mag 7 losses. Never mind.
Even better, I’m up so far.
It’s the nasdaq that’s down 330
At 11 AM EST the S&P 500 is down .49%…. Who would have thunk after good news on inflation and the probability that the Fed will reduce interest rates increasing? I’m sure there is some rational reason, but it’s above my pay grade!
Dj,
The broader market is popping, it’s the previously hot AI runners taking a breather that makes it look like the S&P faltering today. That and I think you can make an argument that all this inflation info was priced into the market already.
Who knows? 1% up yesterday might have been a leak picked up by some traders.
Smaller cap stocks are rising More volatile based on economic projection.
RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF) is up 1%, so the average S&P 500 stock is up 1%