Each time we have a number of pieces of economic data released in a day we seem to have contradictory information.
This morning the number of Job Openings announced in the JOLTs report came in at 7.44 million–way below forecast which was 7.99 million and way below last month which was at 7.86 million. Seemingly showing some softening in the economy–OR maybe it shows that the ‘fake jobs’ that were rumoured to be listed back when we had such a severe shortage are being removed from being active finally.
Then we had the consumer confidence numbers released by the conference board which came in at 108.7–above the 99.5 forecast and 99.2 last month. Seems contrary to the JOLTs report.
We also had the Redbook sales report released and it showed sales up 5.6% growth in the last year–I guess folks are still spending, whether it be with excess cash or simply running up their credit cards. Regardless the economy seems to be humming along.
I’m sitting tight and not really doing much in the markets—I’m going to let the situation play out some more with the employment numbers being released on Friday.
The 10 year treasury continues higher and now up about 5 basis points with the yield now at 4.32%—is topping out? Or will data later in the week send it shooting higher?
Yeah, the job market stuff doesn’t add up. My daughter has never made less than an A since middle school, graduated high school with a college associate’s degree already in hand, and earned two other full degrees in two different majors along with a minor in college and still graduated before her peers. Her most marketable degree is in data management and analysis which was supposed to be a hot field.
She has spent 7 months now looking for a job. She has put in 360 applications and gotten interviews with ten companies, some of which have as many as ten rounds of interviews, and she was a finalist or the top choice six times. Of those six, several either decided not to hire anyone or moved the hiring decision off to next year. The one solid offer she received was for a two month, part time intern position which required her to sign a non-compete which would have prevented her from working pretty much anywhere else for two years. That two months for 2 years was a bad risk/reward proposition so she turned it down.
This past week she accepted a part time position far beneath her capabilities at a cleaning company which will allow her to keep looking for a better position. God bless my child, she is still ecstatic about the job and optimistic about getting something better in the near future. She is a much better person than I am.
But it is absolutely brutal out there in the job market. Don’t let anyone shine you on about it being any different. I have never seen so much bait and switching, catfishing, wasting of time and resources etc… When my wife and I graduated college we already had jobs lined up and people kept headhunting us once we were employed. The market is nothing like that now.
What does a Political Science grad say…? “Would you like fries with that?”…lol (Apologies to Poly Sci grads) Candidates seeking private sector jobs today need to start the interview with “Here’s how I’m gonna make you money”
Public sector job, as my Dad used to say is “working welfare” He was 22 yr career military pilot and 30 yr civil servant, retired with handsome pension (although we had no money growing up, 5 kids and a wifey).
I concede an over-simplification perspective but… fwiw
Bot a money market alternative today floating 5yr TSY plus 300 semi-annual call Truist Bancorp cusip 89832qad1
The 52 week tbill auction went back above 4% after dipping slightly below last auction.
No matter which political party wins the upcoming election, inflation or stagflation appears to be inevitable. There will be an enormous issuance of Treasuries because the deficits are high and actually continuing higher. There will be no consensus regarding limiting Medicare or Social Security benefits because it is a loser politically. Both parties will ‘kick the can down the road’ until a serious economic crisis happens eventually, which will require action by whichever party is in control. In the meantime, the Fed will do its best to keep interest rates at a ‘bearable’ level. Whoever is President will put enormous pressure on the Fed to somehow manage to keep interest rates down. To me, it’s a gloomy picture.
I just bought The Southern Company 4% issue (Baa3) at $98.324, which is callable on 1/15/26 for a 5.45% YTM. It then floats at the 5 year T plus 3.73%. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t get called. If it’s called, 5.45% is better than a MMF yield. JM2C
Whidbey; That doesn’t look like a bad deal at all. Plus the reset rate looks pretty good too. I just checked the 5 Year and it said 4.11% so even if it comes down one full point that still puts you at 3.11 + the 3.73.
Here is a similar structure worth a look IMO.. Stanley B&D (SWK – ~10% today on earnings miss) 4% coupon 3-15-60 floats 3-15-25 at 5y tsy + 265.7 split investment grade (Senior debt baa3/A-)… can be had ~ 98 today… not sure on YTC numbers/redemption. Cusip 854502AM3 Likely 5yr tsy more resilient to Fed moves than 3m sofr..?
Yield to call looks pretty good on that one. But if it’s not called … 35 years is really a long time out ….
One more cusip for this structure. Truist Financial, investment grade 4.95 perpetual floats 9.1.25 at 5 yr tsy +460.1 if not called. 89832QAE9. Pretty sure QDI…trading just below par. Money market alternative…?
Whidbey–cusip on the Southern bond?