This page is set up for those that want to chat about various common stocks.
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4/21/2025
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MAGS closed at 30% off the all-time high. The low close on April 8 was a little lower. It looks like 40% off (~35) is possible. Would you buy at that price?
From a tweet today:
“At 2:20 PM, there was an $8 million spike in puts on the Nasdaq 100 ETF.
4 hours later, the US banned Nvidia, $NVDA, from selling their H20 chips to China.”
Front running the administration’s announcements has become normal business. Don’t call a watchdog…all fired.
Just noticed your NVDA msg (7:44pm NY ) …..
NVDA Tuesday Close $112.20 …
After Hrs at $105.33
There should not be anyone in office that wants to be there. Only people who are selected at random from a pool of people who would be qualified should be allowed to serve. People who actively want those roles are literally the worst candidates. Random choice would be better than voting. Once the debt is defaulted, only people who own USA shares will get to vote anyway (jk, I don’t think there is a default risk). Sir/Ma’am you were randomly selected from a pool of top candidates to be governor, are you willing to do it for 4 yrs? No? Sir, Ma’am, you were randomly selected….
OT – Your post is an excellent summary of how public officials were chosen in ancient Greece: by lot, as in the word “lottery,” not by election. The ancient Athenians, who are credited with inventing the idea of democracy, actually thought elections were undemocratic. They feared elections could be bought by wealthy oligarchs and invited tribal divisions.
Because the Athenians believed all were equal under the law and all had equal political rights, the lot was considered the fairest selection method for office. Interested citizens self-selected for offices, were publicly vetted for citizenship and character and then were chosen by lot. No campaigns, no political parties. Winners were limited to one term only
The idea of “election by lot” popped up throughout history. Some philosophers liked the idea (Cicero, Montesquieu, Rousseau, Arendt). The idea had a renaissance during the Renaissance. The Swiss used it for mayoral elections for 200 years. Some say the Anglo-Saxon jury system evolved from it. – Wikipedia, topic Sortition. JMO. DYODD
yup…we don’t have any conception of what a beneficent state would be anymore, because no one in my lifetime who hasn’t gone an viewed it somewhere else with their own eyes can even conceptualize what it would mean anymore. I’m not a statist, but know that it’s possible, because I’ve seen it…
Kind of like jury duty. And everyone knows how popular that is. Maybe if it paid better.
News says China is restricting rare earths sent to US. Ramaco is hoping to produce them but may not be for a few years. So Ramaco news may or may not be good for the stock. Also don’t know how many dollars their process can generate. Worth watching their progress. I do own METCZ but not METC.
Kentucky-headquartered Ramaco Resources (NASDAQ: METC) announced it has received a $6.1 million matching grant issued by the Wyoming Energy Authority for its Carbon Ore Rare Earth (CORE) Brook mine project.
The funding will match Ramaco’s future investment in building a rare earth and critical minerals pilot processing facility north of Sheridan, Wyoming.
The planned facility will be an enclosed structure located on Ramaco-owned property, with initial construction scheduled to begin in the fall of 2025.
Be careful with Rare Earth Elements companies. They are a haven for scammers, maybe because there are just so few listed rare earths stocks. The only NYSE listed semi-legit one I am aware of is MP, but you can see from the last few days how volatile it can be.
Anyone have thoughts on Net Power (NPWR)? They are a pre-revenue natural gas power startup. From what I can tell, they actually have a great technology: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allam_power_cycle. It’s very efficient, and involves full carbon capture. My energy consulting PhD physicist friend thought the approach was great.
The downside is that the scale up costs are very large. They were trading at ~$10 at the start of this year, slid to ~$7 on rumors of cost increases, then dropped hard to ~$3 after an earnings call where they said they needed $600-$900M to build out (about double earlier estimates). They’ve currently got about $500M of cash and about the same for market cap, with very little debt.
It’s since dropped to ~$2 with the recent market turmoil, but I don’t think they are actually affected much by tariffs. My guess would be something like 50% they fail to get funding and go out of business in the next two years, and 50% they get back up to $5 or higher. And if the test project works well (unknowable odds) they could easily go much much higher.
Anyone else following them? With their combination of high efficiency, carbon capture, and Texas natural gas, I feel like they might be politically resilient. And I think I’ve got a reasonable handle on the technology. But I know very little about the management or the fundraising environment.
Not a company that I follow but if you are interested in the concept, I might suggest taking a closer look at OKLA and GPRE.
OKLA is in the business of modular nuclear power for data centers, with a kicker that they will support nat.gas as a secondary/initial power source. I don’t own shares, but has been on my radar. I am not fond of relatively early stage companies like that with a dream and a monster CapEx cost.
GPRE is an ethanol company trying to pivot to carbon sequestration. Their share price is in the gutter and CEO just resigned. But they are trading at roughly 1/3 of book value, with a wide moat, and probably a takeover target. I do own recently purchased shares and some options positions.
OKLO is the modular nuke company…they are a long, long way from certification. They have a lot of cash but can they hang another 4 years or so?
You’re right. OKLO not OKLA. Too many tickers, too many letters. I didn’t say to invest in them, just to investigate. lol
Common stocks are getting hammered, At least the ones I look at.
Just a guess, the herd is panicking having bought at higher prices and trying to recover some of their capitol or as Lt said in the Litter box earlier, people are seeing ghosts past of 2008 or maybe both.
With the forced layoffs in government, cutbacks in tech and I suspect with layoffs in manufacturing that may accelerate, cutbacks in government spending, then add in tax cuts that result in less taxes collected by the government, include a pinch of spice to the bubbling cauldron of stew less spending by consumers who are a big part of the economy and what do you have?
Is the plan that Trump & Bessent have going to work right away without any pain? Lower oil prices even with people using less, lower interest rates even though consumers and a lot of businesses are maxed out on credit and debt. Tax breaks and tariffs to force businesses to start manufacturing in the US.
I think this great reset is an experiment that no one is sure is going to work.
Will people demand higher wages to pay for higher costs? or if jobs are lost will prices drop and people be forced to take lower wages just to have a job?
Will automation and robotics take over manufacturing and doing the jobs no one wants to do? That will take time and money.
Everyone thinks its going to happen to the other guy not them.
I don’t know, except when you try to do a hard reset there is a tendency for things to quit working and instead of going forward you have to start over.
Unless the laws of physics have changed I can’t change direction while moving in my car without first slowing down and maybe even coming to a stop if I decide to do a 90 degree turn like these geniuses are planning. Then I have to start over accelerating to get back up to the speed I had been going at.
Rocket Mortgage is buying out Redfin RDFN for $12.50 a share later this year. RDFN is trading near $8 today. I am guessing the market is discounting the prospects of the deal going through, but there is a good bit of upside there if it does and I haven’t heard of any impediments to it closing, but I have not researched it.
Someone with time might want to look into it a bit more. I have some option plays set up where I come out OK either way.
All stock transaction for shares of RKT.
“Under the terms of the agreement, each share of Redfin common stock will be exchanged for a fixed ratio of 0.7926 shares of Rocket Companies Class A common stock…”
The press release I read said all stock for a value of $12.50 so a fixed ratio vs. a fixed price would explain the price movement.