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3/26/2025
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Chemical makers DOW and LYB made new lows today. Not too far below for both is a CY of 8% if the dividends remain the same. Watching.
Good alert on DOW as I don’t follow that one close enough. The stock is now trading at lows we haven’t seen since early/mid 2020. A near 8% yield here is wild.
I have to take a look under the hood to find out how sustainable that current distribution $$ amount is. I looked quite awhile back as it seemed they were issuing debt almost every week in my daily corp bond scans and at that point and their total debt was approaching $17B so their levered free cash flow is deeply negative.
theta-
Please share what you find under the hood. If the dividend drops, look out below. Same for LYB.
I’ve stopped chasing commons like this. Too many people are a lot smarter than me and have a lot more information. Been burned too many times. I’ve instead picked up some CEF’s. Example, DNP, good volume and for 35+ years the price has basically fluctuated between 8.50 and 11.50. During this time its paid a steady monthly dividend of .065 (never missing) which at current trading price (~$9.65) is about 8% yield.
I sold my small gold positions today
IAU +60% (held 3 years)
AGI +89% (held 2 years)
Here’s my very guessy guess for gold: A major top in the next 6 months, a long correction up to 20%, a rally to 4000. No surprise if something entirely different happens.
Rocks, I sold my BTG last week at $3.30. I still think there is some upward momentum to gold stocks but I didn’t want to wait for the peak. I got out of KNTNF way too soon, but I made money so no complaints.
My crystal ball I got from the mystic healers store doesn’t work for gold. Your guess is as good as anyone’s for 6 months out.
Shipping stocks — Hearings begin today on proposed large new taxes – docking fees – on foreign shipping companies docking at US ports. Complex rules, intended to affect Chinese companies, Chinese-built vessels and companies ordering from Chinese shipyards. Impact uncertain – news talk only about container ships- could cover oil tankers as well. (possibly affect US farm exports, US refiners importing crude, etc.) JMO. DYODD.
MU has tested the 83-88 level five times since the June high, most recently making lower highs each time. Today it’s down 6% on earnings to 96. If the support area doesn’t hold, it could end up in the 60s. Not a prediction.
I bring this up because there are probably broader implications to MU weakness. Also on earnings today, NKE and FDX getting hit hard.
With everything going on, treasuries are more or less stable in the last few days. PFFA had been hanging around 22 for two months but now 21.56.
Tesla…… down almost 7% today after the Commerce Secretary recommended that it’s a buy in that it will never be this cheap again. My personal thoughts this is a stock to stay away from. Tesla is in trouble on multiple fronts. Sales are in the toilet, outdated vehicles that are overpriced, and quality control problems to name a few. Tesla is not in my portfolio……..
I was in a Costco parking lot today and saw a bumper sticker that read “I bought this before Elon went crazy”. I guess people are getting their Teslas keyed and dented very frequently. I don’t like Musk, but I’m not sure I agree with the people doing this. Unfortunately, unruly behavior just leads to unruly behavior as a response. Rough times ahead.
Tesla has a handy backdoor to escape through in the event of heavy US tariffs on imports followed by foreign retaliation – Tesla exports cars from its Chinese manufacturing plant to Asia and beyond. I don’t follow Tesla but it seems that Tesla’s China situation is more price than popularity. BYD is a formidable high-volume competitor with a lower price point. BYDDF BYDDY (The old Henry Ford approach. A local Ford dealer radio commercial in the 70’s – “We lose money on every sale but we make it up on volume.” They were not kidding. ) I don’t own Tesla except in funds. JMO DYODD.
“How BYD undercuts Tesla around the world, by the numbers
BYD is more affordable than Tesla in at least 10 places outside the West.”
https://restofworld.org/2025/byd-beats-tesla-on-price/
Bear
a thought on tesla vs byd
China is happy to subsidize BYD to help its economy.
Years ago, we worked with some companies that were building solar panels in China. Chinese gov. really wanted to be big in that industry, and was willing to pay for it.
So, the gov. gave companies free land for factories, financed construction and tooling (essentially for free), let the companies pledge the tools to the banks to get working capital (yes, that is kind of a double count), and committed to buy some portion of the factory output (to keep the factories humming). Bottom line was that they could produce solar panels that were cheaper than any available from anywhere else in the world.
It went well for a couple of years, then the US woke up and realized that US producers were all going out of business (part of Chinese strategy all along), and imposed big tariffs (many years before Trump).
Rest of the world got a lot of cheap panels, China got jobs and export sales.
I have not been involved with BYD (which is why I can comment), but I suspect the Chinese are following the same plan as they did for solar panels.
TSLA down 7% today Mar 20??? TSLA closed +0.17%.
Copper futures (HG) have been rallying since Jan 2 and are approaching the May high. OTOH, FCX, which peaked with HG in May, has had a much smaller rally. I find that odd. There must be something more to FCX than the price of copper. Either that, or FCX is way underpriced.
I’ll just add two tidbits as I trade commodities and have been in and out of FCX over the years.
Presently the biggest hidden bullish attribute is the fact that most people don’t know or are dramatically underestimating FCX gold production. I haven’t checked very recently but I want to say off hand it’s somewhere around 15-20% of aggregate revenue. But here is the kicker, that is a super stale low estimate from a balance sheet perspective because now, the price of spot Gold is probably up another $800+ per ounce.
On the flip side, if memory serves, I believe 1Q is historically FCX weakest production #s of the year, so you might see this current price action taking that factoid into effect and folks waiting on the sidelines.
This is a tricky stock because you have to be careful if you are trying to lump sum in. Just a month too early will make a dramatic impact on your ROR going forward. I think dividend yield is only maybe 1%ish so you won’t get bailed out much by a DRIP.
I’d like to know why copper is so hot. Usually driven by traders expecting higher demand from China…at least that’s my KISS notion.
Random thought-wondering if commodity importers get hit by tariffs.
FCX down again, now hitting $39 handle. The reality is these types of enterprises are the least bit simple, rather they require a more sophisticated and complex investment understanding and approach.
There are many variables and factors that land in a different reality. Right, we see copper futures rising and rising but that doesn’t necessarily correlate to this company or the particular stock price.
As furcal alluded to, the price runup we are seeing right now is absolutely relative to those potential imminent policy changing implications due to massive inventory drawdowns in Asia and probably Europe is next.
If you want to watch this more closely, that is how this plays out in Europe, you need to track the cancel rate of copper warrants on the LME.
If you are bullish on the price of Copper going forward but want to keep it very simple, you are probably actually better off just going with a pure play. But don’t get any of these funds that are merely running and rolling synthetic futures contracts. I believe Sprott still has a physical Copper fund that you can trade on the TSE.
The “Sprott Physical Copper Trust” also trades OTC in the USA as SPHCF.
If you are in the USA, one big thing you should be aware of is that the Sprott trusts are considered PFICs, Passive Foreign Investment Companies. If you hold shares of those in a non-retirement account, you have to file Form 8621 which is not supported by TurboTax. Therefore you have to file a paper tax return and wait a longer time for your refund.
For me this is a deal breaker and so I only hold shares of SPHCF (and its uranium counterpart, SRUUF) in retirement accounts. Hope this helps.
Mike D. – Many thanks for your post as I’ve held in the past in nontaxable accounts.
If you peruse the Sprott site, even though the categories will say Precious Metals or Critical Materials, if you actually look under the hood, they all have some small composition of miners. Hence why this must be activating the PFIC, because these miners are foreign corps. That’s interesting this also extrapolates to physical spot ETF as well.
With that said, unless you are buying a very large amount, you can get physical bars delivered to your home from APMEX or CopperHeadBullion etc. I know right now the 5000g and bigger bars are very hard to get. But 1000g bars are all you can eat.
Or you can just buy copper futures. They can easily be traded now, even Robinhood offers them.
With dramatic swings beginning at the 2023 high of 95, crude oil futures (CL) have corrected to the current 66.5. Along the way down, there have been a lower low and a lower high. I’m guessing at another lower low 59-62.
Why would this happen? Dollar weakness? Supply/demand/growth expectations?
What actually happens will, no doubt, be different. I care because I would like to add to my small collection of oil stocks, but I’m in no hurry.
Rocks, You have been noticing the same thing I have. The correlation is more noticeable with the producers, Why I am avoiding them for now except for trades. The pipeline companies will follow but not as wide in the price swings.
I think all the reasons you gave apply except growth. Too much growth falls into the over supply category. Except for a country or company that is desperate it doesn’t make sense to grow production when demand isn’t keeping up as all you’re doing is flooding the market and pushing the price down. I can see this happening with natural gas.
R2S – Although your overall theory may be correct, the short-term is usually predictable at this time of year. As an 11-year refinery worker, it is turn-around time at the refineries as they selectively shut down plants for repairs. They will soon ramp up production to refill the empty tanks and oil prices will temporarily climb. After the tanks are full, prices tend to decline and level off while awaiting the summer driving season. The most stressful time of the year at many refineries. We had lots of overtime hours getting pipes and tanks ready for service before the plants started back up.
In the past, I bought funds that track oil prices in early March, and then sold them in early April for a decent gain, but I haven’t done it in a while. This might be a good year to start again, but DYODD.
cali-
I’ve been waiting for CL to finish this chart pattern for so long that it’s a joke now. Traders will start a rally on any pretext. I appreciate the seasonality issue. Recently, the backwardation in futures for the rest of the year has risen from 63ish to 65ish, so no help for me there.
Watching CL is more of a hobby than an investment idea. The price of oil and gasoline matters to consumers wallets. On a CPI adjusted basis, the price is not too bad now historically.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QtimGGY7/
In the comparison of total performance of various etfs to 20 SPX stocks of my choosing that I started in May 2024, PFFA has moved into the #2 spot. If I include IAU (gold), it would be #1 by a big margin.
IAU +28.5%
IBIT +18.9% (Bitcoin)
PFFA +10.9%
19 slices +8.5% (excludes MRNA)
SPY +6.6%
20 slices +4.1%
QQQ +3.7%
TLT +2.5%
A small investment in Bitcoin can be a valuable addition to an income-oriented portfolio. In the long run, Bitcoin is predicted to go to $1.5 million in a few short years, according to a famous tech-stock Guru who was interviewed on Bloomberg today. That’s about $300,000 a year easy money.
In the short run, Bitcoin will make you very happy that you have invested mostly in preferreds and sensible income securities.
If you are a gambler suffering from monetary separation anxiety after betting on a sure-thing, Bitcoin will make you wonder if you should double down to get back to break even. JMO. DYODD.
Bear, all the interest in BC makes me wonder about the value of the dollar yet they still convert BC into whatever currency is needed to exchange the currency for a service or product. So a lot of what someone says is the value of BC is speculation or what the market is willing to pay for 1 BC
I’m old school and the most I am willing to risk is buying a stock of a company that is dealing with gold or silver or making the picks and shovels to get it out of the ground.
In BC case I wouldn’t be surprised more money is being made off selling the chips and the hardware to mine the BC
I normally hedge by increasing cash. I started small test positions in bitcoin and gold during the recent market chaos as portfolio diversifiers and dollar devaluation hedges. Bitcoin was once thought to be uncorrelated to the stock market. No longer. Bitcoin is like SPY high on meth – you can’t taser it down. Frightening to watch money vanish on a down day. Exhilarating to watch it power up returns on a good day.
On the plus side, I got some lavish returns, enough to keep me in the game, though not enough to cover my losses. I suspect Bitcoin was invented by the creators of the Pick-5 lottery. Throw down 12 bucks for your regular card. Lose $10. Win $2 on the Xtra. Feel like a winner. Come back for more. JMO. DYODD.
There are various ways of losing with cryto. I’m down 32% from 4 yrs ago. Unfortunately only had a tiny amount of Bitcoin but more of other junk. A tiny investment overall.
Also sometimes it just disappears. North Koreans stole 1.4 billion in February according to the FBI.
danzeb – Tell me about it. I lost $100K on an Ethereum node project. When all is said and done, outside of bitcoin, the entire crypto sphere especially if you are getting down to meme coins or DEFI networks etc. at best is no different than rolling the dice on the pink sheets for small cap equities. And if you are a large size trader, good luck with exit liquidity. Sure you can see 100% gains in a day but here today, gone today.
That incident you are referring to was from an Ethereum wallet @ Bybit. The CEO goes into the details here. He made good from his own funds!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RG52EZvGD4
Anything outside of BTC is just not worth it. People don’t realize but in the last 16 years now, bitcoin has only had 3 negative return years. On an annualized basis, year-by-year going back to 2010 the annualized performance returns of bitcoin absolutely blows away any other asset classes.
I am still staying out of coins. I am probably missing an opportunity, but I guess I will live with that.
My only investment in the crypto space at the moment is some A shares in a startup that provides services to crypto companies.
Cash positive in their third quarter, profitable by their fourth quarter, growing like mad. Like a money printing machine.
I did some “consulting” for them. I call it “being the adult in the room”. Funny thing I started “consulting” with couple of their founders at a Christmas party at my house a couple of years ago (one of my kids invited them). Mostly just sitting around explaining how companies work, how to do staffing, cash management, etc. Later, I helped them evaluate stuff from some VCs. I thought I was just talking to them as friends, but then they gave me a slug of stock as a “thank you” and asked me to be on their “advisory board”. I guess sometimes it pays to just be nice.
Biggest challenge is recruiting talented people – just can’t get enough fast enough. Same thing I hear from my kids’ about their companies. Still a huge talent shortage in Silicon Valley for skilled software developers. Mountains of resumes floating around – hard to find the good folks in the piles of dross.
BearNJ – Wild to think that even a buy and hold approach would have worked out for bitcoin, now with a near 16 year performance track record (only 3 negative return years.)
Check out these annualized returns. 2010 isn’t even populated because it would be too unfair, probably 10,000%+ just for that one year.
2011: 1,473%
2012: 186%
2013: 5,507%
2014: -58%
2015: 35%
2016: 125%
2017: 1,331%
2018: -73%
2019: 95%
2020: 301%
2021: 66%
2022: -65%
2023: 156%
2024: 121%
I mentioned in November that I bought a tiny position in DOW at 45 for the dividend and that I had a downside target of 32-34. The recent low is 35.48.
This February article from Chemical & Engineering News is not encouraging and may reflect broader problems in the economy.
https://cen.acs.org/business/economy/Dow-cut-1500-jobs-economic/103/i3
Rocks thanks for the link. Hard to believe 2024 was a bad year for Dow and Lyondell and Dow is looking at Europe as a weak market when BASF had an ok year. Maybe the type of chemicals they are in?
Picked up some Target (TGT) pre market. Screened the Dividend Kings this weekend. Target and Exxon came thru my screen as decent buys. Going to hold off on Exxon for now as I have enough oil position. Target has 57 yr dividend raise streak, PE below 12, its current yield is in the rarified air right now. Going against sentiment and starting what I hope a very long term hold here.
I’m picturing Porky wearing a doughboy helmet.
% off recent all-time highs:
WMT -20%
COST -17%
Importers like a strong dollar and no tariffs.
Every week. let alone, each day, Warren’s $334 Billion in Cash Equilivnts, sure looks very smart.
Jim Berkshire Hathaway has enough cash to generate good income off of 4 to 5% interest.
We know that Seeley dosn’t make mattress’ large enough.
I’m close to 20% cash eq. with half in SGOV at 4% and half in WTFCP/M at 7% (ending soon). Is it not enough or too much?
Rocks about the same for me but most backing GTC orders.
From the all-time high, Mag 7 + 4 more.
AAPL -15%
MSFT -19%
AMZN -19%
META -18%
GOOGL -21%
NVDA -29%
TSLA -53%
AVGO -25%
NFLX -16%
NDX -13%
SMH -24%
Ramaco Resources METC reported earnings and revenue beats yesterday. METC is in the business of selling steel-making coal, aka metallurgical coal. The common stock was up 38% today, with a bump from reports of heavier tariffs — for now anyway – on imports of Canadian steel. Ramaco is also working on a rare earth project. JMO. DYODD: tariffs are a two-way street. MET, METCB, METCL, METCZ
NVDA looks interesting 91-100 for technical reasons. At 100 NVDA would be 35% off the all-time high.
Agreed, On it’s last similar fade ( late Aug / Early Sept ), it got down to the $101-ish area. Long term this item should be Good.
I’m not a tech like many, yet once it hits $100 ….. I would guess that mid $90’s is probable.
On that Fall ’24 fade I did open a position @ $102.25 … wanted to add, but off to the races.
Appreciate the post’s.
Rocks, bot a small piece end of day yesterday, just sold for a ~5% gain. Similar mini-trades past week or so w LEN, DHI and STZ. I think it’s a time adjustment behavior of being newly retired . . . this foolishness has got to stop.
News about inflation and tariffs has increased volatility in the stock market. S&P down 7.6% and NASDAQ down 11.5% in the past month. I sold some stocks in the past few weeks but should have sold more. Watching when to jump back in but need to decide what’s overpriced and what’s underpriced.
Shopping didn’t seem to bad today with some prices dropping. Dozen organic eggs $4.49 and gasoline $2.61 with credit card.
The only place I’ve seen eggs that cheap is in the US Government Bureau of Labor Statistics reports where they are priced at 4.95 — that’s where they calculate CPI – which explains why Social Security increases are so low.
Locally eggs are running 7.99 a dozen which was in line with the commodity charts. “Was in line” explained: To my surprise, egg prices began abruptly dropping from 8.22 to 6.04 beginning around March 4, just a few days before The DOJ began investigating farmers for not rebuilding their flocks fast enough. (March 7).
Pro tip: if you paid a $2 surcharge when you bought a genuine New York Egg Cream in Brooklyn, they knew you were a tourist. JMO DYODD.
Average Price: Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
This comment just for fun.
TSLA -13+% today, over a 50% haircut from the all-time high. 200 looks possible. Is valuation finally going to matter? Is he still the world’s richest man?
Google has a PE of 20. MSFT, Amazon and Nvda have PEs in the 30s.
TSLA has a PE over 100.
if you value it like a car company its worth $15. toss in a multiplier and you still get values under 50.
I put a few low bids in for Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Nvda. They all hit today. I only bought 30 ish shares or so of each as I feel like we could see lower lows with everything going on. I don’t normally buy common stock only preferreds and bonds.
What are others watching during this pull back?
Tsla gone from high of $360 to $226 in 3 weeks. Wow.
Well Libero, It’s not a stock market, but a market of stocks. I’m watching pharmacy stocks, food related stocks and I can’t catch a break. They are all going up and outside my buy orders. But I refuse to move my price point. I want more BMY but it’s up 35% from what I last paid. I suppose that makes up for losses on my preferred’s
Libero
High div, low P/E Value stocks
Market is in a major rotation from Growth to Value
Westie-
All I can think of is to ask you, “And how many days is this rotation going to last?” LOL
Everything happens much faster than it used to. I don’t think the stock market can function without growth leading. Sometimes it needs to be repriced.
Canada is halting imports from Smithfield Foods SFD, the largest US pork producer. Canada is targeting SFD’s largest plant in North Carolina. The news came as the US announced 250% tariffs on Canadian dairy products. The USDA says the halt is not tariff retaliation, just a “temporary suspension” by Canada. The USDA and SFD are looking to talk. The market will sort this out on Monday. SFD got a pump from the big brokers after its quiet period then drifted lower. It is off about 10% since its IPO.
Trade war targeting is getting better this time around. The Chinese took aim at CHS in farm country with its retaliatory tariffs. Companies are getting sharper too, Hershey HSY, while trying to corner the market in cocoa (90,000 tons) in January, may also avoid future tariffs too.
Not really looking to add any retail food companies right now. Ag may offer some opportunities. JMO. DYODD.
Bear I hadn’t heard anything about CHS but I did see something about China is now slapping tariffs on Canada also
China targeted CHS with some sort of restriction. (“suspension of soybean export qualifications to China”) Its hard to find a detailed US discussion among the headline news. If you want The Party Line (literally), it is below. I haven’t abandoned ship on CHS. Farmers are pretty good at getting through tough times. Also, a bailout is expected just like last time. Oil tariff impact is tbd. Don’t know about China-Canada, but lumber and dairy have been long-time US-Canada disputes. IMHO. JMO. DYODD.
“…the GAC announced the suspension of soybean export qualifications to China for three US companies, including CHS Inc., LOUIS DREYFUS COMPANY GRAINS MERCHANDISING LLC, and EGT LLC, due to recent detections of ergot and seed-coated soybeans in imported US soybeans….The move is based on the country’s food safety law…to protect the health of Chinese consumers and ensure the safety of imported grain… ”
http://en.people.cn/n3/2025/0305/c90000-20284648.html
Bear,
“Something is rotten in the state of Denmark” University Of Wisconsin.
https://pddc.wisc.edu/2015/07/23/ergot/#:~:text=Use%20crops%20that%20are%20not,be%20more%20susceptible%20to%20infection.
Soybeans are in the pea / legume family, not in the grains family.
Maybe processed on the same machinery for oils that grains are processed on?
Fascinating info and a great find. Suggests China could back away here without looking like it is backing down once the technical issue is fixed. (A Clorox wipe on the equipment and a standard disclosure like “soybeans processed on machinery that also processes rye.” )
OT – Not rotten in Denmark, but in Norway and France. There is a history on ergot going back to the Middle Ages and up to the 50’s in France. Say “ergot” to any 60’s Hippie and he will say LSD. Ergot causes hallucinations and is the main ingredient in LSD. It also causes nasty side effects. JMO. DYODD.
Raising my hand.
Any focus on Corn / Wheat products. Both been down recently with all the T-News.
Saw an interesting item over weekend on WEAT ( Wheat focused ETF ).
A Chinese company owns Smithfield. So, Canada is hurting China ?
Venture Global VG a recent IPO touted as a bet on the booming US LNG export market announced an expansion at one of its projects, making it the largest project in North America. VG was down a bit today after earlier news of cost over-runs at that project. JMO. DYODD.