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Are We Going to Stabilize or Not?

Well another ugly day–I thought just maybe we would have gotten a ‘sell the potential tariffs’ and buy the actual tariffs–but I guess folks still are feeling threatened today by the future. We have gotten a couple of dead cat bounces today, but with the S&P500 down 1.6% as I type this one can’t predict the balance of the day. I am thinking we will have (or maybe need) a giant ‘flush’ yet today to weed out the sellers. Who knows?

With the 10 year treasury off another 5 basis points to 4.13% we are seeing just minor damage to portfolios–contrary to yesterday we are seeing red–I never like red but with the equity prices falling so hard it is just a matter of time until preferreds and baby bonds get pulled down as the baby goes out with the bath water.

I did buy a few CDs this morning at 4.35% (3 month) just because money is stacking up and I need to keep it at work somewhere. Still have no intention of buying prferreds or baby bonds now, but I will be watching my current holdings to see if I can get a bargain (bargains on a term preferred or short duration baby bond is defined differently than perpetuals to me–a drop of 50 cents in an issue that matures in a year or two may present great opportunity). Perpetuals are off the table for now (this week).

Headlines of Interest for Holders of Preferred Stock and Baby Bonds

Below are press releases from companies with preferred stock and baby bonds outstanding. Additionally, news of a more macro economic importance may be posted. 

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XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Trust Declares its Monthly Common Shares Distribution of $0.077 per Share

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CTO Realty Growth Announces Acquisition of Lifestyle Center in Atlanta, Georgia for $79.8 Million

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Ready Capital Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter 2024 Results and Declares First Quarter 2025 Dividends

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CareCloud Reignites Acquisition Strategy with MesaBilling Acquisition

View Press Release

Synovus announces quarterly dividends

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OFS Capital Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results

View Press Release

New Fortress Energy Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results

View Press Release

Chatham Lodging Increases Common Dividend 29 Percent

View Press Release

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Prompting Homeowners to Shop for Better Rates, Accept Higher Deductibles

View Press Release

Harrow to Report Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2024 Financial Results After Market Close on March 17, 2025

View Press Release

AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. Reports Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2024 Results

Confusion Continues–and Now We Have a Potential Shutdown

Markets continue to move in a manner indicating no one knows for sure what is going to happen in the weeks ahead. As if we didn’t have our hands full with tariffs as well as many geopolitical events we now have the potential for a government shutdown next week.

In more normal times one could simply yawn about the government shutdown I think it is wiser at this time to pay attention. It would seem to me that with all the vitriol in the capital this shutdown could go longer and have more noticeable consequences.

The 10 year treasury yield is trading lower once again today in the 4.18% area–helping to give just a tinge of green to income securities. Economic data–the institute of supply managers data–weak–except for the price reading which as hot.

I hate the uncertainty–absolutely hate it, BUT I have to deal with it just the same. Since our portfolios are giving us a respectable return (certainly not a super duper return) I guess I will mostly watch the drama unfold.

Weekly Kickoff

Are you ready for the week? Economic news is somewhat minimal this week–a least until the official release of jobs numbers on Friday. We can get a good hint of the economy by focusing on the jobs numbers (we also have the ADP jobs numbers on Wednesday). Also we will once again face the tariff issue at least on Tuesday of not all week long.

Last week we saw the S&P500 was off by about 1% last week with a strong bounce coming Friday afternoon which salvaged the week. The coming week we will see tariffs be activated on Tuesday against China, Mexico and
Canada—will they go into effect or will be they be paused? We’ll see as they will likely be extremely important to markets.

The 10 year Treasury fell by a huge 19 basis points last week to close at 4.23% as compare to 4.42% the Friday before. With the employment numbers being released on Friday and other more minor economic reports will likely be scrutinized closely we will see if rates break lower yet.

The Fed balance sheet fell by $31 billion as the Fed continues the balance sheet runoff. With rates falling lately I wouldn’t expect the Fed to be motivated to discontinue stop the run-off.

As might be expected the average $25/share preferred and baby bond rose in price last week–although quite modestly–only 9 cents. Investment grade issues rose 9 cents, banks 9 cents, CEF preferred up 8 cents, mREIT preferred moved 6 cents higher and shippers continue fairly steady and up 2 cents.

Last week we had 1 new income issue come to market as Rithm Property Trust (RPT) brought a very high yield issue to market–priced at 9.875%.