Well the employment numbers came in about as expected, although revisions to previous months added jobs. The unemployment rate ticked a tiny amount higher which is probably enough to give the FOMC ‘cover’ to lower the Fed Funds rate by 1/4% on the 18th–of course there is plenty of data in the next 2 weeks although unless the CPI and PPI come in very hot it is unlikely that the rate cut will be derailed.
Interest rates are down by 2 basis points after being down 6 basis points. Regardless rates are down 25 basis points in the last 2 weeks—one would think that we would see a bigger pop in income issues, although we will take what the market will give us–anything green is good.
Common stocks are drifting–the volume this week has been extremely light—has everyone already taken off for the holidays already? Of course as has been the norm the S&P500 will be up on the week as the election sugar high continues. I would always prefer flat to up a little to seeing anything big happen to the downside–big downdrafts will hurt everyone as the baby goes out with the bath water.
With interest rates falling I am rethinking (again) my next moves. If I though that rates would remain low my ‘buys’ will be much different than if I believe massive treasury issuance would drive rates back up. Flat to drifting lower would argue for perpetuals—flat to moving higher would argue for high yield, shorter duration issues. I will just have to see where my thoughts take me next week–who knows? No one.
