The 10 year treasury is holding right at the 4.30% level today–plus or minus a basis point. No doubt traders are awaiting the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Friday–then we could see some fireworks one way or the other.
Today housing numbers were released–soft, soft, soft! New house sales were down over 10% month over month and about the same year over year. Mortgage rates just are not following enough to stimulate any kind of demand.
In the last few days B Riley finally filed their 10Q for the period ending 9/30/2024—what a disaster!! If Bryant Riley didn’t control the company there clowns would have been canned a long time ago. A loss of $286 million for the quarter and $771 million for the 9 month period. It is a very long filing and more than ever I question whether they can survive.
Yesterday I did some more nibbling by adding back some shares of the RiverNorth Opportunities Fund 6% perpetual preferred (RIV-A) for $23.55. This is about 3% below where I sold most of my position in October so I gained a bit there (although I lost maybe 10-20 cents on the lower yield on money market). I am looking for a 3% capital gain on these shares in the next year–we’ll see.
Well let’s see where we go now. With Nvidia reporting tonight who knows where that will drive tech shares and thus the S&P500.
I own some of the B.Riley bonds. How do I know if they are going to pay these bonds. With those losses my broker said they will make an offer soon. But he didn’t know if I will get more money if we wait.
The short answer is you don’t, but this is probably a good time to roll out Ben Graham’s quote, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” I read someone try to explain this this way: “A voting machine counts votes. Votes are based on sentiment of people at a given time. Sentiment can change — and it’s difficult to measure accurately.
A weighing machine is much more precise and concrete — it’s easy to measure weight accurately. The value doesn’t change quickly but when it does change a lot there is a noticeable physical difference.
The metaphor suggests that in the short term prices are driven by sentiment while in the long term trends are driven by something you can actually measure more concretely — financial results.”
Based on pricing still, the weighing machine still thinks you won’t.
Odd the Rilyz bond shot up exponentially on the news?
I wondered if there were any assets left in Riley after them selling parts off of the company. Oak tree their new lender must think there is some meat left on the bone. I don’t know, not something I’m interested in trading on. Makes me wonder about OCSL and their bonds. Or is this part of the tangle of Brookfield’s Oak Tree advisory group? Humm…