Actually I wanted to let the market action sink in a bit before shooting my mouth off this morning. I suspect everyone is pretty leery of this sharp bounce in equity prices this morning–I know I am.
All my accounts are up very nicely and of course I am not selling–but not yet buying more. Sure lots of countries around the world are lining up to start negotiating on the tariffs–BUT the one that really counts is China and they are NOT caving to the administration. Already we have destroyed lots of consumer confidence which is highly likely to slow the economy and all the little countries of the world can line up for ‘deals’ but they are of little consequence. China is huge and need to be dealt with successfully to have the best of outcomes.
As for equities we know everyone is going to ‘buy the dip’. Every article I read on Seeking Alpha says to buy the dip—everyone wants to be a hero and proclaim “I called it”!! The ones calling the loudest for a dip buy are those that were touting all kinds of high priced shares last week–so now they want everyone to average down. Maybe they will be right and maybe they will be wrong–either way it is just a coin toss–no one knows.
I say be darned careful. Yes I want to capture some nice capital gains in the future, but my buys will be small and will be made up of many small purchases. Sometimes I wish I was braver–but for me better safe than sorry.
Getting SA vibes here folks. People over at SA will gladly argue this stuff day and night. So plenty of action over there. Sometimes boring is good. I will also admit my hands are not clean so I will leave it at that.
Picked up some DCOMG. Cost basis is below par. Bought over last 2 days. 9% plus notes will work. A taste.
Fc honestly this is getting a little uncomfortable. I’m trying to read what III’s are doing with buying the drops or selling into the pop in the market this morning. It’s getting hard to follow because all of the nonsense is getting in the way. It’s pushing the good information farther down the list.
Charles, I’m brrokenrecord.com here …. have been a long term holder of C-N … Citigroup TruPs…. long past call …. and huge prem$ … yet if looked over a two year , monthly, chart it really shows me a stable item on downdrafts.
Fri close $29.91 …. Monday close at $29.61 …. today ( due to all the quiet ! ), closed at $29.61.
I believe that due to the TruPs feature, other posters have research that Citi will let stay outstanding.
As necessary …. FAIW.
Keep the board posted with your fine market comments.
I sold a large chunk of things this morning into that crazy +5% dead cat bounce. Was 2nd guessing myself at lunchtime but now I am elated – this thing may gap down hard tmw…Now I have a lot of $$$ to deploy if it does.
More like a Schrodinger Cat Bounce!
best advice ever – “I say be darned careful. Yes I want to capture some nice capital gains in the future, but my buys will be small and will be made up of many small purchases.”
yeah – I actually have some common stocks I’ve wanted to buy so part of the ammo will be used to sell puts on those at strikes 10% or more below market. If the market drops, I get put the stock lower and keep the premium. If it never gets there, I keep the premium which, with this volatility, amounts to annualized returns of $30% or more. Targeting May and Jun contracts.
UPS is one I’ve wanted to own at much less than it was going for last year. Looking to sell the 85 or 90 puts…if put the stock, the dividend yield (if it isn’t cut) will be well over 7%. Plus, I can have the option to sell covered calls if/when owned. Other ones of interest include BA, AAPL, NUE, TGT and a few others including ARCC and maybe, MAIN or O. If we just go up from here, I have plenty of time to get back into the things I sold this morning.
Not in a hurry and being cautious with entry points on stocks I would not mind owning regardless.
Whether this is a dead cat bounce, or a bottom seems to depend more on one’s political leanings. I wonder how the market is going to figure out how to screw both sides…
Deflation?
Dan—if we get real “deflation”, I think our economy would be in a bad, bad recession. My guess is stagflation is coming our way. Who knows?
Indeed- today was a posthumous feline bounce, onward and downward– nothing to see here.
My cats, particularly Miss Buttons, are taking great offence to the posthumous feline bounce, otherwise known as the dead cat bounce….Miss Buttons opines that it is time already to stop using the metaphor….she suggests to use
the Homo Sapiens species as they are the most despicable of all and the root of all problems – particularly in the markets:-)))
Actually, this market has been way overvalued for awhile and all it needed was a trigger to get the bear train moving. Inflation/stagflation has been a specter in the background for quite a while, then DeepSeek started taking the air out of the tech/AI bubble hopium. Tariffs were the 3rd strike that are/were responsible for finally blowing down the house of cards. Not that the genie is out of the bottle, this is just going to gyrate with a downside bias for a while and could get much worse if we get a deep recession. Did I use enough cliche’s there? LOL.
There’s quite a few term preferreds and also fix to floating preferreds that were trading at par last week that are down $1 or so from par. Those are worth buying, IMO, if the yield makes sense and they are decent companies. Not a huge gain there, but it’s something, and some of these are 8+% yields, so an eventual 4% capital gain on that is not the worst deal right now.
I’m staying in my foxhole and taking the lull to dig it a little deeper before the shellacking resumes……. No selling, but I do have some cash to reinvest because of a recent redemption and accumulations from the recent quarterly dividend payments. Right now it’s in the Vanguard MM earning a few bucks.
Dead cat bounce…….?
I don’t trust the rally. We have a LOOOOOOONG way to go before I think we have any clarity. I been taking a few nibbles here and there, but mostly trying to preserve what cash (MM) I have for the time being because I feel there will be better bargains in the weeks and months to come.
If I miss out on some bargains, so be it. I have taken a beating these past few days (close to 10% but a lot of that was NVDA, AAPL, energy / renewable energy stocks, VOO, VTI, and the like).
Even though I am down significantly (and possibly more pain to come) I take solace in the fact that most of my down days are less down than the overall market. There was a time (before Tim and III) when my losses would outpace the overall market. The things that held stable were my illiquids, and many of the other preferreds being discussed on here regularly.
I still struggle with allocations. I want some common stocks because I need some capital gains, but the conservative side of me has been pretty happy picking up high quality terms, soon to be callables, and perpetuals at 6% – 8%. Although I have learned to do some trimming of my hi flyers, I am not a trader. I am trying to build an income stream that will hopefully cover my expenses in retirement, which is fast approaching (8-10 years).
I hope to reach a point where I can boast about .45% and 1% losses (and / or gains) on massive down days. I still have some time to complete the repositioning of my portfolio, so while pretty disheartened by the recent rout in my accounts, I am not panicking and remain hopeful.
Thanks Mark—I haven’t lost much–as you reference–BUT of course I trail you significantly over time I suspect. It sounds to me like you are doing just what someone your age should be doing.
Mark – As an old timer now, both in tooth and on III, I want to congratulate you on your path to financial freedom….Perhaps you’re not aware of it, but your growth as an investor as shown by your posts and approach to III has been quite obvious IMHO…..Over the years, you have used (and contributed to) III to the benefit of all.. Keep growing!
2WR, WOW! That is high praise coming from someone whom I admire on here. You have contributed much to my understanding of this corner of the market. (There are many others on here as well – I do not want to discount those contributions either.)
As far as financial freedom, I’m not quite feeling it yet as the losses continue to deepen. But I am sitting well enough at the moment that there will not be any forced selling of anything, so, hopefully, my losses just remain paper losses until saner heads prevail and the whiplash subsides.
I really appreciate your perspective on my growth as an investor. Sometimes (most times) it’s hard to assess one’s own growth, and to have an outsider be able to see and comment on it is very reinforcing. I have “only” been investing for about 15 years, so in many regards, I am quite the newbie among the great and seasoned minds that have gathered here on Tim’s site. I am truly grateful for finding this community and all the generosity that prevails here. I only hope I can continue to contribute in a meaningful way.