While we are only a few hours into the trading day even a super producer price index (PPI) report can’t move equities higher. The S&P500 moved up toward breakeven at 9:30 (central) sellers came in and said ‘let me out’ and down we go to now being off 3/4%. I mentioned days ago I was looking for some sort of ‘flush’ with massive volume to put in the short term low–don’t think we have had it yet.
Even with super PPI numbers the 10 year treasury yield is a bit higher–a couple basis points to be at 4.33%. For sure there is a lot more going on there than inflation–the bond vigilantes are keeping the treasuries feet to the fire. Initially I thought this would happen, but then I kind of backed off of that thought as rates were down in the 4.10% area. The bond market, like myself originally thought the Trump administration would actually be able to lower government costs–now folks are not so sure.
I’m doing nothing but watching the charts today–not that it matters to someone holding a portfolio like mine, but I still find it very interesting.
I looked at our portfolios—1 account was up 6 cents–the other 2 slightly green. Not much action to look at in our accounts.
Well let’s see if the markets can break out of this funk and move a little higher–not looking like good odds now.
If I heard about high egg prices once, I heard it 50 times this year. LSM couldn’t beat us over the head harder…WHAT ARE YOU DOING ABOUT IT?…
Turns out the correct answer was, WHY do you ask…..>>>>>> you dont care!!
Eggs (pasture raised brown) are under $5.00 here. Haven’t heard it mentioned once on LSM!?!!
U.S. Michigan Consumer Expectations down from 64.0 → 54.2
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-expectations-900
Consumer has to feel good for stocks to move higher, IMO.
We need to get back to insisting on value for our everyday spending. As noted in this thread that means diligence, investing time and simply not paying prices that don’t deliver value for the buck. We’ve been conditioned to act like ‘the consumer’, when we need to act like ‘hey that’s MY money’
We buy somethings at ALDI. we’re down here in Bonita Beach, FL and people are still spending money on food, alcohol and hot cars…
I continue migrating from risky and floating rate to safe and fixed. to batten down the hatches and secure my income stream.
Today I picked up some Prudential PRS at 23.45 for a CY of 6.03% this issue is cumulative and rated BBB+ which is pretty good for a preferred stock.
Dan,
Just a nit pick. That is a note/baby bond/whatever. Not a preferred and thus never a qualified dividend. Regular income.
With that said I own both PRS and PRH.
When do DOGE budget cuts actually cut the budget?
Groceries – I’m a Michigan snowbird in Englewood, FL for the winter and have watched my regular grocery sources, Sam’s Club and Miejers, raise prices at least 30% over the past few years. There’s a Publix supermarket a few blocks away and I discovered a super way to save at the supermarket. Publix regular prices are higher than Sams and Miejers, but they always have many buy one get one free sales. So, if you focus on these deals you save big-time and I mean big-time. An example is the Kefir beverage we love. The regular price is between $5-6 everywhere, but I stock up at $2.30 when its on sale (an unheard of low price these days).
Its an A B C D E market.
A….administration (wild card)
B….bubble (across mag 7/AI)
C….concentration (chasing bubble)
D….Drift (across sectors towards returns)
E extension ( If you thinks rates same or lower what we should be doing now)
I’m old enough to remember some nut on this very site last yr or previous yr saying inflation only affected savers. Can you imagine the level of chuckleheaded-ness you need to be at to make such a statement? On an investment site no less.
I am not sure what the numbers the bond market believed were in the reported cuts. The renewal of the tax cuts, which needs to be done for the middle class, is a massive addition to the deficit. I did not see reported cuts anywhere in this range.
This whole idea of liking/disliking the idea of tax cuts and liking/disliking the idea of spending cuts makes no sense. In the end the focus, PARTICULARLY FOR THE BOND MARKET, needs to be on the deficit.
So yes, it looks like as they focus on what they should be focusing on, the rates will start to climb again no matter what happens with inflation.
But, I have been wrong since 2017. A broken clock is right 2 times a day. I will continue to favor fixed rate issues that reset in the future off the 5 year TBILL.
Same here Tim. My portfolio has been treading water all week alternating slightly green to red. So much chaos and whiplash from day to day. Took advantage of beautiful weather with temps in the upper 70s low 80s here in North Carolina to give my bicycles a good cleaning and lubrication. Sometimes I feel like I live in a bubble here retired on my two acres in the peaceful countryside just outside of town.
One of the all time ever scams pulled over on the American Consumer is this BS of “Oh the inflation rate (CPI/PPI) is coming down!!!! YeeHaw. Take a look carefully at the following: Groceries from say 2 years ago, Homeowners/Car Insur. Renewal, Professional Services from the likes of Grass/Snow guy, Painter, Plumber, Electrician, Property Taxes, etc. By most people’s standards I would be classified as quite wealthy but being “retired now” even I can certainly feel the increase of prices and in some cases even out & out “GOUGING”. Just 2 examples: My snow/grass guy raised his prices by 50% when I asked him WHY his answer was “Have you heard about this crazy inflation”??? 2. We go to Costco twice a month. I use to get out of there for around $200—now its always around $300 to $350 for the same shit.
The problem ChuckP is you’re too ‘cheap’–like me–I bitch but in the end I pay the bill.. But yes everyone takes advantage of the media reports to hike their prices whether justified or not.
I’m less cynical here I think rising prices reflect their rising costs not opportunism. Otherwise competitors would undercut them.
Martin, in our business raw costs have been stable but insurance, taxes, utilities etc. have gone up so our cost has too. Management wants us to increase the margin but its hard to do. So its similar to Walmart asking it’s suppliers to cut their margins so they can cost increases low.
Safeway last night in Scottsdale (which has above average prices):
Kellogg’s corn flakes ~$7 a box.
Potatoes chips ~$6 a bag.
There is no way cereal cost anywhere near $7 a box to produce.
They absolutely are charging whatever people will pay. I bought the $2.99 Safeway brand lol. I’m cheap.
Unfortunately we tend to reason “I deserve it whatever it costs”. If we stopped buying then things would return to more reasonable prices.
When I worked for a grocery company, I was an eager volunteer taste tester for the company test kitchens. The idea was to come up with private label products that tasted as good as popular brands. One day I did a 3-way blind taste test of a product I used regularly. I was able to easily identify my favorite name brand as best right away. Except the product I picked as best was not only not my favorite name brand but another name brand that I absolutely hated. It’s worth paying extra for something only if you can tell the difference. JMO. DYODD.
Bear, my daughter is a wine snob. Hard to convince her to try a cheap wine. She equates price with taste. My wife only likes Best foods mayonnaise even though Hellman’s is cheaper. I had to show her both are made by the same company and both are the same recipe. So tell me why Unilever charges more for one than the other here on the West coast? It’s because they can.
Eliminate the snow or the grass and DIY.
Cut his income by 50%. Maybe the start of a trade war.
Replace your snow/grass guy.
This service is a commodity.
Inflation hits everyone differently. Tracking my monthly expenses shows food prices with an enormous jump. Gas? i dont drive much, so no effect. Lawn care: there are a million landscapers, i just keep switching and have actually reduced the cost. Im in retirement and now taking lots of equity money off the table, happy with my gains, putting some in fixed income and some in liquid vehicles. I don’t have much faith in the economy for the short or medium term, so why not up my income, protect my profits and go travel for a while?
Smart. Personally, I’ve found some (not all, but some) of this inflation is self-induced. I.e. not paying as much attention to the prices/value in the grocery store and just grabbing whatever looks good and heading out, shocked at the total. When eating out, ordering appetizers and soda as opposed to just a meal and water like I used to. Not negotiating as hard or getting second or third quotes… We need a good downturn to make ourselves and this country more efficient again. Scarcity is the only thing that creates efficiency.
Absolutely agree. If it’s not worth it don’t buy it.