As I have noted before (too many times) I believe that employment is key to keeping the economy humming. Odds of seeing a recession when everyone has a job is pretty remote–and folks keep paying their giant credit card bills and house and car payments.
The JOLTs (job openings and labor turnover) report this morning continues to point to high likelihood of the labor market continuing to be relatively strong. The report showed 7.74 million job openings versus the forecast of 7.48 million and last months 7.372 million. Certainly this is way below the peak numbers we saw last year up in the 9-10 million area–but that was inflationary and a somewhat lower number should lessen inflationary risks.
Also released this morning was the Johnson Redbook Index which showed year over year sales growth at retailers of a massive 7.4%–wow!! The optimism of consumers that they will be able to pay those credit cards never ceases to amaze me. Part of my problem is we haven’t had a car payment or credit card bill for years (actually we use our credit cards a lot, but pay them in full each month)–maybe I need to go crazy and boost the economy more—then I can get 10 minutes of a sugar high and years of misery.
Markets are not moving much today–up a little–down a little–just fine with me.
Tim, we are birds of the same feather. I’ve been using credit cards for over 40 years and haven’t paid one penny in interest. Also, haven’t had a mortgage or car payment in many years. Just think of the effect this has had on my nest egg compared to the many other old farts with mortgages, car payments and 26% credit card debt – Wow!
jshsky—I suspect that is the case with many of us III’ers. The older I get the ‘cheaper’ I get–should be spending, but keep right on saving–but sleep pretty well at night.
Sorry if this offends anyone, but I find many comments on this site as being to the negative nature. I, like Tim, do not carry any debt and use credit cards to my advantage. But I have to admit we spend a lot of money, even if it is only the income from investments. But I have a lot of money and I worked hard all my life to get it. For that reason I am going to make the most of my retirement while I can, as you never know when it will end. As I see many people my age where I go, I assume that many of the boomer generation feel the same. We should remember that consumer spending is 70% of the economy, and it is when they stop spending that we should really be concerned. For some reason we only hear about those who are having problems, it doesn’t make good headlines about those of us doing well. After all the history the financial institutions have with credit, I’m sure they can handle any situation at this point.
What negativity? Most comments are sharing of imformation and unbiased analysis of investments not stumping for an agenda like we keep seeing elsewhere. Though there are a few exceptions, and a few human interest stories.
“Also released this morning was the Johnson Redbook Index which showed year over year sales growth at retailers of a massive 7.4%–wow!! The optimism of consumers that they will be able to pay those credit cards never ceases to amaze me.”
According to TV interviews, some people are “stocking up” ahead of Trump tariffs which may or may not be imposed. We have no way of knowing how widespread this sentiment is, but it is pessimism, not optimism, that drives this kind of spending.
In any case, in an inflationary environment, you are better off stocking up than hoarding cash. Food and energy are actually down, but people have long memories and perhaps are still in an inflationary mindset?
I am curious how reporting of data might change over the next 6-12 months as well as how it is reported. I realize this is not a great comment because it drags in the ****** word but I do find the concept interesting that it could happen with data and how it is spun. You simply do not get this current situation often at this level of govt. You have to go back to Grover Cleveland.
I think there could be a developing attitude that the government will bail out credit card debt if it blows up again.
Also consumers desires to always want everything now drives consumption and even the inflation that they hate so much.
The one night I spent in the hotel after Thanksgiving allowed me to channel surf and nothing has changed and might even be worse. It’s all about sensationalism to capture attention. There is nothing that I would call just reporting the news. I was constantly hit with ads trying to say I needed the product. Heck, even doing online shopping I was told I could buy with 4 easy payments and no interest if paid on time for a 120.00 vacuum.
Who buys an inexpensive product on installment? What business even thinks it’s a good idea to offer this? I am sure you can buy stock of that company but I will pass.
Now maybe I am being negative as Wevans says but I am just observing and saying out loud our economy seems to be more and more about extremes. Now what is the actual truth who knows? Maybe most of the population doesn’t fall for this and reality is it’s just a small segment doing it and it’s not going to cause a major impact.
But then again after living through 2008 and 2009 it’s not going to happen again right?