Interest rates are hanging around the 1.71% mark (10 year treasury) today seeming to be waiting for the next bit of ‘news’ that can kick rates higher or drop them back a bit.
Today we had the ADP payroll report which claimed 517,000 new jobs for March–few serious folks pay attention to this report–why they don’t pay attention I am not sure–but they are more willing to believe the numbers released by the federal government each month. Not certain why anyone believes that either of the reports is better than +/- 25% of real numbers.
Just the same, even though I believe almost nothing the government says about these things, I still have to pay attention because they can sometimes move the market.
The consensus forecast for new jobs for March, which is to be released early Friday, is calling for an additional 675,000 jobs–against the 379,000 last month. But I am hearing whisper numbers as high as 1 million.
While it impossible to forecast any movements in interest rates I will venture a guess that if new jobs are reported at or above 1 million we are going to see a spike higher in rates–an 1/8% jump right off the bat which may set quality income issues tumbling a bit (1/2% or so).
We shall see.