The combination of a strong jobs report 2 Fridays ago and very strong retail sales being reported today have worked to move interest rates higher–for now. The 10 year treasury yield moved as high as 2.14% before settling back to around 2.11% right now. Remember it traded as low as 1.95% on 7/3/2019.
It seems to me that the most recent “data” would argue for the FED holding the Fed Funds rate steady–but from recent testimony to congress we think that once again the FED has backed themselves into a corner and will have to lower rates 1/4%.
“Talking our book” we would be quite happy to see no rate hike. Our money market right now is yielding 2.24% (Gabelli US Treasury money market-GABXX) and we are happy with that yield–to go back to the sub-2% area will certainly make our life a bit more difficult as we chase higher returns.
Of course when we look at the global economies–Europe in a slow motion slide and China slowing bringing many negative rates we know darned well the Fed will move rates lower.