Relative Calm Prevails in All Markets

It is strange how we can go from a fairly large drop in the futures markets overnight because of Iranian missile attacks to a market that is acting remarkably calm.

With the killing of the Iranian general last week I thought that we would see some short term market weakness, followed by a nervous flat market. With missiles flying last night from Iran I thought ‘oh no’ this could get much worse than I expected.

Last night I did take a peek at the futures markets and saw they were down a couple hundred down points–all things considered not a big deal-and by market opening today we were flat and interest rates remained flat in the 1.81% area.

So, for now, we are back to semi-normal conditions. Of course this will be hanging over our heads for another week and it will temper moves in stocks and interest rates.

We do have the employment report being released on Friday . The forecast is for a modest 160,000 new jobs being created–certainly if this number is close we won’t see interest rate reactions–but we shall see.

8 thoughts on “Relative Calm Prevails in All Markets”

  1. Tim, do you have a personal chat area or email? I am new to your website and wanted to ask you some basic questions. Thanks

    1. Gary G–no I do not–sorry. You can ask me anything you want – wherever you want–I see all the comments, no matter the location. Also assuming they are market related the readers can answer most anything.

  2. The market soared and oil tumbled while the President spoke. Seems the market is pleased. If Iran’s fireworks show to save face is the end of this (and it seems that is their intent given advance warning and aim away from doing true damage) it truly was a non event for the markets

  3. One of the signs of every single bubble that we’ve had is the unwillingness of the market to accept any warning signs BEFORE they burst. Are we in a bubble? I have no clue.

    Like you Tim, I expected much more a market reaction and an exercise of caution. Looks like it is a party on time again and we will go the opposite way (at least for 60 minutes).

    I will continue to look for opportunities and bargains.

  4. If it’s true that there are no American casualties, this becomes a non-event. It was basically a face-saving action by a country that knows it can’t afford to get into an all out firing war with the U.S. However, I somehow feel we haven’t seen the end of Iran’s reaction to what happened.

    I’m sitting on way too much cash, but I don’t see how this event drives interest rates higher. Trying to decide whether to bite the bullet and buy sub-6% preferreds or continue to wait it out. Really don’t have much conviction either way.

    1. You might wait a long time. Look at what your cash is earning. Interesting to me that the ask on WELPM, available & suggested here yesterday @ 132, has popped up to 201.51. And the ask for PPWLO, which recently changed hands @ 125, is back up to 175.

      I try to reinvest my incoming divvies as soon as expeditiously possible, at the best rates then available. I don’t want to sell, only collect & buy more. No waiting in anemic mmkts for me. No, thank you.

      JMO

  5. Shows how complex the total market is. Some factors pushing up and some pushing down. Does anyone know what they all are and their strengths?

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