Interest rates have pushed up a little in the last 24 hours as the FED FOMC minutes show they are likely to push rates higher in the months ahead. Rates creeping higher is fine with us–but lets skip the 20 basis point jumps in a few days—let’s do 1 basis point a day for a week.
With the strong JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover) on Tuesday we think that one vote for higher rates is in for a December rate increase. From our perspective absent a black swan the December Fed Funds rate hike is going to happen. Anything after that is totally data dependent.
In spite of the non stop trashing of the Fed by the talking heads I don’t believe that any sane person will push rates to the point of causing a recession–we will have a recession, but it is not the fault of this Fed–the punch bowl has to be removed sooner or later and it should have been removed years ago (or alternately the balance sheet run-off should have started years ago).
We will be on the road most of the day so will miss any potential fun today–oh well there will be plenty more ahead.