Much Quieter. A Peaceful Week

After the volumes of last week and what seemed like quite a rush to sell new issues during the month of March it is nice to kick back a bit and relax. The number of issues in March was at an unsustainable pace relative to keeping the website updated (and for the 4 different quote providers that we use-all of them slow to get databases updated).

The number of issues with large gains or losses is very small and I see that we only have a 1/2 dozen or so issues that have traded over 3x normal daily volume–a far cry from over 130 late last week.

Like all of you I enjoyed the crazy profits in the last month–it was hard to go wrong with anything that one bought–but this too shall change. We are due for a bit of a scare–somewhere–and honestly we would be happy to see a bit of a setback to income issues so that we could buy some more.

9 thoughts on “Much Quieter. A Peaceful Week”

  1. Thanks for the replies! I get your”stay in your lane” philosophy.
    Good Luck and as like the cheer at the last game I went to, “we want tacos!”
    Bring it home!

  2. Tim, I have also enjoyed some crazy profits this past week, but not in my slouthful moving preferreds. My big bet season long 96.5 point total with St. Louis Blues just covered tonight with their 97th point. Already won the Knights 100.5 under and Calgary 93.5 over. Very nice season. Will be able to buy some more preferreds now!

    1. Grid, Seems the slothful prefs are part of their interest rate persona of prefs. All the hoopla with the interest rate prognosticators on SA for instance. We are purposefully conditioned (brokers thrive on volatility and doubt to create actions) as a group to ‘believe’ that near term rate changes will affect the value of our prefs.
      Today: Rate shoot down in a recession event prefs will act like bonds and their yields will be more attractive IF they do not suspend them.
      BUT: what if they are seasoned and have a high IG?
      OR: Value of equities are going down and so are the and prefs are at risk too.
      SO: My conclusion is to go with IG or high IG and give up the speculation drama…hell, I gotta go fishin’ at Bennett this week and I don’t have a crystal ball in my secret drawer.
      I had recently made a comment that I own ‘all three agency mREIT various prefs’. After making the comment I wondered whether I was sticking my foot in my mouth and the market would show me why I would be punished for being so stupid. I dug in and researched all of those companies and positions and their history during the turbulent new century wild actions. Seems I always have to re-prove my previous rationales to myself. The steadiness of the cash flows to service the positions I hold are in a good place, even if the market wants to mark down the NAVs for awhile. The valuations were NOT a product of the company’s actions or underlying holdings which are fluid and get rotated by the experienced internal pros, but wild, temporary mind fears. Like Tim said yesterday, “looking for an opp to allocate more cash (because I have some targets but not at this price)”
      I am sure I am expounding on the exact thoughts most of have. It is harder to trust that cowboy managers are not at the helms of some of these corporations (corporations are NOT people), because we have witnessed their mistaken steps. That’s not on us. Thanks for listening Doctor.
      I’ll have another cup of coffee and watch out for the Bruins! JA

      1. Joel, I think the hard part in determining what people buy is context. While I stick to mostly IG or at least preferreds with IG bonds and dont own Mreits, shippers or BDCs. Someone who is buying shippers and Mreits may have actually have a safer portfolio if the vast majority of funds is in say IG Bonds or CDs, etc. So definitely preferreds serve various needs for various goals. The important thing is matching ones risk level to the appropriate investment.
        You gotta love to hate those Bruins…Always a tough out. Missed one of the greatest comebacks in 2013 1st Rd. Had a grand on Bruins to win series against Leafs. Leafs went up 4-1 late in 3rd game 7 and I shut it off and gave up…Later that night I was curious to see final score and Bruins somehow pulled off the comeback and won the series to pad my wallet.

        1. Bruins fan here Grid, that was indeed a miracle. Great to watch. Glad they helped your wallet out.

          Nice year, though the Hawks were a bit too tough.

          1. Ken, I still regret not seeing the ending. And I was just watching as a money whore. A true fan would have jumped through the ceiling on that win!

        2. I also steer away from BDCs, and Shippers. I am interested in your thoughts on the three AGENCY mREITs: AI BBs and prefs. also AGM & AGNC prefs if you have any to put out there. Their histories have been flawless by and large except the mark-to-market drafts based on NAV. These companies are steeped in the practice of tactics, execution, hedging and int swaps and smoothing.
          PS: I just spoke to a good hard head friend in Rochester who was beating the drum on the Horrors on the Harbor yesterday. I know I can get a rant out of him when I mention the Blues, but I’m a home team flag waver here!

          1. During depths of despair this winter, I dropped $200 at 50-1 Blues to win cup. If they make it to finals, Im flying out to put 5k on other team to ensure a profit!
            Joel, I like to have a decent understanding of something I own. Mreits in general are just too far over my head. Doesnt mean at all they are good investments to me per se. If say DUK-A quickly dropped $2, I know the company is fine and it is what it is. If some owned Mreit dropped $2 I would have no idea if that is just the beginning of a rout. I dont trust my investor psychology with those, so I just stay away.
            Just read a recent report on NuStar from Fitch…NSS isnt going anywhere. Near term the company still has the same old problems. They still have a matured bond from last year sitting in their revolver as they cant get favorable terms to issue a new bond to free up that revolver cash.
            Senior rated BB and NSS, B+…This is where people often get misguided comfort in owning baby bonds over preferreds…NSS if a default occured is rated by Fitch “RR6”…This means in a default the recovery amount of NSS would be 0%-10%….Hardly inspiring in safety compared to the preferreds. I do own some NSS, but will exit if oil goes below $50.

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