Monday Morning Kickoff

Equity futures are way, way up on a Pfizer announcement of a highly effective Covid 10 vaccine. With the S&P500 up by 3-4% you would expect higher interest rates–and we have the 10 year treasury up by 11 basis points–at .93%. If this rally continues for a day or two we may see a few ‘bargains’ start to appear in the income issues–we’ll see.

The S&P500 traded in a range of 3280 to 3510 before closing the week at 3509 a gain of near 7%–once again common shares were sent sky high because of the flood of cash trying to find a home.

The 10 year treasury traded in a range of .76% to a high of .90% and in spite of the huge equity gains the 10 year closed the week at .82%–not exactly a huge vote of confidence in the economy.

The Fed Reserve balance sheet grew by $11 billion last week (after falling by $31 billion last week) extending the sawtooth upward pattern of balance sheet growth–this is destined to grow year after year.

The average $25/share preferred and baby bonds rose by 35 cents last week, a very strong gain following on the loss of 32 cents the week before. Investment grade rose by 15 cents as did banking issues.

Last week we had no new income issues sold–considering the turmoil of the elections and market movements this is no real surprise.

10 thoughts on “Monday Morning Kickoff”

  1. Some 20-25% of my positions jumped 50 to 75 cents here in a day or two and crested 28…w YTC’s have dropping to 4.5% down to low 2’s. Bingo….”Hurry up please it’s time”

    1. Of course they will eventually work. Problem is they’ve been value traps with -17, +4, -9, +13 YTD….With names like zoom and peloton up 507 and 252 ytd the average Value investor has had the a ss handed to them this YTD heck back to 2010.

  2. Last Monday some half the country swore they won’t take the vaccine! They’ve ALL gone mute this morning. Not a syllable of protest. Just cheers.

    1. The same kind of cheers from those who attended all of the “super spreader” events this weekend?

  3. I wonder if F/F baby bonds will react positively to today’s interest rate moves?

      1. The ETF ZPR makes it very easy to track movement in the price of the Canadian pref resets. It’s up 3% in the last 2 days, which is a very large move. And perfectly in keeping with the uptick of the Canadian 5-year rate.

        I believe we are looking at higher rates on the long end of the curve. Not drastically but higher than present rates. The Fed may come in with another “operation twist” and pull long term rates down but that’s a tough one to predict.

        Keep in mind that more and more U.S. issues are of similar structure, resetting based on 5-year treasuries rather than 3-month LIBOR.

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