I’m thinking I brought a bit of a hoax on the market for the afternoon–only an hour after saying markets were relatively quiet the S&P500 took a nosedive which took it down over 2% in the afternoon–fortuantely bouncing 1% in the last 30 minuters. Jay Powell gave a speech and said what he has been saying–and honestly everyone should know–it will be tough to lower rates if tariffs create some inflation. No shix!!
The stock fall took interest rates with it and the 10 year closed at 4.28% – down 4 basis points which helped to keep income issues slightly green on the day.
Tomorrow is another day—and my shopping list remains the ‘hiding spot list’–total chicken investing.
This site has lost so many excellent people due to political rants. It has been quite well established that this is supposed to be a politics free site. Tim, I think you should permanently remove commenters who can’t seem to control themselves. After reading Whidbey Islander’s post above. I would suggest you start there.
Pete—my post was meant to provide a little levity to this site—nothing else. Nobody thinks either of my projected outcomes would happen. Sorry that Franklin and you can’t lighten up a little bit. One of you thinks I’m a moron. I guess I could be. I guess the Stanford Business School screws up occasionally and actually accepts a moron.
Does Stanford teach a class on name-dropping your alma mater to win internet arguments?
Such a reply, Hells bells! I would tend to think that one who would object to name dropping Stanford is someone who didn’t attend, and probably would not have been admitted had they made application.
If anything, there should be more disclosure, not less. Perhaps linking a CV to one’s handle? I can much more put one’s comments in context if I know who they are.
Where you went to school, what you studied, where you worked, and so forth. Were you a Rhodes Scholar or a Secondary School drop out? It does make a difference.
Kind regards,
Grace
Grace,
Thanks for the suggestion to start attaching résumés to our usernames—nothing makes a casual online discussion more enjoyable than vetting everyone’s pedigree before deciding whether their opinion matters.
You might be surprised to learn that not everyone thinks name-dropping a school is a compelling argument. In fact, it tends to come off more like Andy Bernard from The Office constantly reminding everyone he went to Cornell—annoying, insecure, and utterly irrelevant.
I didn’t realize that online discourse required a LinkedIn profile to be taken seriously. Maybe next time I’ll open with my SAT scores and a list of extracurriculars.
Love,
Dick Whitman
Hi Whidby,
I reread your post 3 times and I need to correct you. At least 2 of us think that you’re a moron. Dropping political comments disguised as levity is still political. I would think a Stanford Business School graduate would recognize that and have enough respect for Tim and the people that enjoy this site to abstain from the politics. Instead of making excuses, why not just man up and apologize for making a mistake. I’ll go back to lurking.
I apologize for offending you.
One last post for clarification. You did not offend me at all. I just think you are ignoring Tim’s site rules. I’ve watched for weeks and the political comments just keep coming and seem to be getting worse. Your’s was over the top in my opinion. Let’s stick to investing. You may have the last word.
Failing to understand the influence of the sun and moon on the ocean tides could leave you trapped at the base of a cliff or carried away in a rip current. Study the positions of the sun and moon, and know when to avoid certain locations on the beach. Share your knowledge with others to protect them.
For me, III is a place where I seek knowledge, but I don’t pay attention when the conversation drifts from what I seek.
Hi g2c-
I think you hit it right on the head for a great topic. Tim openly shares his economic and investment theses without the politics. Your comment has actually made me realize I need to consider forming a personal thesis instead of merely reacting to prices, etc
Would anyone else be interested in this exercise? It could be posted to the sandbox or maybe Tim would do a quick article so any responses would be organized in one location. I would love to hear people’s thoughts without the political bs.
Pete I hear what you are saying. Not sure how we would word it if we are trying to share something.
I am looking at the REIT preferreds I hold and trying to decide if I should add or sell or if I should add new ones.
I asked BearNJ about where an observation he shared earlier was at on the site.
There are a lot of things to consider with REIT’s are they profitable, are they in a business that is in demand, do they have a lot of vacant property, Do they have a lot of debt they have to roll over at higher interest rates. etc. etc.
Another thing that can affect them and I need to consider is how that political BS is going to affect them and what can happen to what I hold or am thinking of buying.
That is where the problem comes in when you talk about it.
Hi Charles-
I think the wording could be easily done without any bs. Such as: the current tariff negotiations will cause inflation because… or will not affect inflation because… People need to be willing to spend a moment to word things properly instead of vomiting their emotions.
Maybe I’ll give it a try next week. Ha, what could go wrong.
Pete, it would seem that you grasped the “Share your knowledge with others to protect them”, and I admire your intent. However, it also included sharing “the positions of the sun and moon.” Otherwise, the knowledge lacks context because the tides would not exist without them. Note that the quote does not say to study the sun and moon, it just says to study their positions to protect others, which is entirely a different matter and allowed by the III rules as I understand them.
Pete, I get what you’re saying. Let’s give it a try next time, but just correct me and not reprimand me as I will try my best.
This week the “Tarriff Tax” hit me pretty hard. 18% increase in my home/auto insurance policy. I called the rep and basically told me that insurance companies are expecting increases in car insurance (no claims in 20 years, but parts are made in Mexico) and homeowner’s claims (timber from Canada) will cost the company more for lumber/steel for commercial businesses. I’ve not had any claims in years and years (wind damage to a property in 2003), but I’ll still have to pay for this.
Ugh… insurance companies seem to be doing well as a group and managing risk better, paying out less. Not always great for clients but can be beneficial for owners.
Your insurance rep’s explanation seems more seat-of-the-pants than accurate. While some of the facts are true (premiums are up because repair and replacement costs are up) , IMHO the underlying reason given (tariffs) is flawed.
More likely your personal policies are going up because of the company’s bad loss experience (hurricanes, fires, etc,), chronic risk under-pricing and the increased cost of laying off the insurer’s bets elsewhere. (And if in Florida, fraud and litigation.) Tariffs were just announced, are in flux and the insurer doesn’t know and can’t predict their effect. Premiums are set well in advance of sending out a bill. Increases may require advance filings with the state insurance commission and a waiting period and/or a state approval process which can take time.
Retail premiums were on the way up big time long before tariffs were in the news. (I got my increase letters many months ago, 40 to 48% for 2025.) More expensive houses, more expensive cars, more expensive labor = higher premiums.
FWIW – If you have an old homeowners policy, you might want to review your coverage for adequate replacement cost coverage. JMO. DYODD.
Good advice Bear, Thank you for posting.
It has gotten to the point I don’t think it is worth it in a way. There is Azure’s way on his property in Florida that he says he doesn’t insure, although I bet he does have liability and accident insurance which is the minimum.
All State says our insurance on a house in Nevada county is going up to 7,000 a year in August. Calif and Florida have state sponsored insurance and I may consider that as my brother in law and his wife have done since they live in El Dorado co. Both these counties are in the Sierra foothills high fire danger areas.
I understand that the California state sponsored policies are bare bones. (FAIR plan I guess they call it). The basic policies cover Actual Cash Value of the lost property not replacement cost. ACV is the depreciated value of the lost property. Likely, it will cost a lot more to rebuild, which is why you want to be covered for replacement cost plus a law change / building code rider, if you can afford it.
(Remember the Three Little Pigs. When you go to rebuild your straw house after the Big Bad Wolfie Windstorm blows it over, the city tells you the town building code now requires all-brick construction. )
You want to keep your coverage limits up to date. There is a concept called co-insurance. It goes like this. Twenty years ago, you bought a house for 100,000 and insured it for 100,000. Decades later it is worth 1,000,000 but you never upped the policy. A storm does 50,,000 damage. How much can you collect? You think: – all 50,000 because it is within the 1000,00 policy limit.
The insurance company says no, you were underinsured by 900,000 (we allow 80% as a minimum) so we both share the risk. The insurer pays you a fraction of your claim. (100000 purchased / 800,000 minimum required) x 50000 loss. Insurer pays 12.5% of your claim. You can google around – this is an oversimplification.
You can self insure which a lot of people do. IMHO, a better way to go is to take a very large deductible. I buy insurance to cover big risks. I can’t afford to rebuild my house out of pocket. However, I don’t mind self-insuring on the first dollar deductible of a policy. JMO. DYODD.
Thanks Bear
Thanks Charles M
Just went through getting insurance for my son’s new home in CA
State Farm won’t write new policies (even though he had been a customer for 15 years). Other quotes were sky high. Best deal was (surprisingly) from AAA. rates were half of Farmers quote.
Sorry – probably rambling again…
We bought in a new community in Florida. Insurance is under $1000 local companies like new builds we don’t make many claims and hurricane standards are better. Though I’m sure it will go up every year. State subsidized program is limited to homes that can’t get affordable insurance anywhere else, their definition of affordable follows some obscure formula that floats based on average costs.
I’m seeing the same thing. As a retiree, it’s unsustainable. Considering options for coverage on two 2017 vehicles. I’ve had no claims either. I have a low mileage no frills version 2017 Nissan Altima at my winter residence that I maybe drive 2500 miles a year… maybe. Just got my renewal. $500 for 6 months. I suspend coverage when I’m not there but still. I’m going to drop the collision coverage on it next winter. I have a 2017 CRV that my wife mostly drove but she’s finally fully retiring in July and we could do without it. I am either going to drop the collision on it, store it or possibly sell it. She hates driving. The 2024 pickup is my baby. That one’s a keeper and I will pay all coverages on that one. It’s unfortunate that it’s come to this but choices have to be made when you’re retired and income can’t keep up with rising cost.
18% hit you hard? I’m in Hurricane Alley and my home insurance has tripled in 3 years. And that’s with ZERO claims in 40+ years. I wonder how much the California fires are going to ding me with my May renewal.
How about this prediction? Trump will more urgently ask Powell to reduce the Fed Funds rate. If Powell refuses, Trump will find a “reason” to replace Powell for “cause”. A Federal judge will issue a temporary restraining order that quickly gets elevated to the Supreme Court.
What will be the result? I’m guessing that Trump will prevail in the heavily conservative bias of the Court. A Constitutional crisis will ensue with people rioting in the streets. Trump orders the military to stop the rioting. Congress invokes the 25th Amendment and removes Trump.
Another possibility, Trump declares another emergency and orders both the Army and National Guard to restore order. The U.S., in actuality, becomes a dictatorship and Trump rules until he dies from natural or extraneous causes.
We are living in different/challenging times.
WI – Feeling a wee bit political, eh?
Well knowing where your from explains your thinking. This is a non political board.
too optimistic
No. He’ll tell us inflation is transitory. And spending 9 trillion on pork is an investment that will pay for itself. And his former speech writer will say Powells number one goal is to cement Biden legacy.
No my bad he already did all that. And now the pork is over how are we going to pay for it? Oh yes blame the current guy
Are you guys getting disillusioned by the current administration?
I could not have guessed !
I thought this was an investing site, not Comedy Central
Was today the 50 day crossover the 200 Day on any …. or all charts …..
Powell is sticking to his plan and seems to be playing very clean. They may cut rates if the balance of the FOMC mandates suggest accepting inflation.
He has stated he does not intend to step down. It is my opinion that it will be difficult to remove or it would have already happened.
Investors should note that Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Trump will likely want a Fed chair who considers tariff increases transitory. A chair that will lower rates. Investors may want to hold more floating-rate issues.
Whidbey Islander,
So much for the site’s “No political grenades” posting adherence.
So Whidbey, with no due respect at all due to you, you are an absolute moron. You, SteveA, lt, CharlesM – and the rest of the slick-post keyboard warriors should take your propaganda and political grenades over to Yahoo or Seeking Alpha.
What a total clown. This garbage brings absolutely no value whatsoever to the mission and vision of this site or the good folks that play by the rules.
Full stop.
Franklin, you are correct.
This is an investment site, inappropriate for incendiary political statements.
However, there is some value to hearing the negativism from other investors.
As in Stormy Westie’s concerns.
Market results are affected when investors change their investment views because of political changes – actual or perceived.
There is much discussion regarding how foreign investment US holdings have skyrocketed over the past three years – mostly from gains in value driven by the Mag 7. As a result, foreign investors are substantially overweight US equities compared to their historical norms..
Largely as a result of political events, the wisdom of being so overweight is being questioned and it appears liquidity is flowing away from the US market to foreign markets.
Overall, expression of political views saps the collegiality of this site – the mutual caring for one another – that is its #1 value.
So let’s knock off saying things that do not benefit your fellow investors.
Thank you Westie,
You stated it correctly. I have voiced my concerns out loud about the clouds I am seeing with this market that I have never seen before influencing it and Yield Hunter’s remarks when he said, is anything safe.
This might be a “slick” way of saying the politics of the day are affecting this market and not in a good way.
Even Tim who own’s this site is worried and has made references to what is affecting the market.
Franklin-
Recently, one or two solid contributors have made political comments. I have no problem cutting them some slack because I understand their frustration. However, that’s just me. Others, like yourself, are justifiably upset and concerned that the site has lost its focus.
There’s a fine line to walk. We must be free to discuss the possible short- and long-term impact of political actions on the investment landscape. Doing this in a neutral manner can be challenging, especially when the impacts are perceived as negative and worsening.
I wish good luck and health to all.
Rocks, you are a gentleman. Well said.
Going back through posts this morning trying to find something Bear said.
Came across your post about needing to block others emotions on the market and focus. Trying to do that and get back to focusing on what I need to do now.
Rocks2stocks, et al,
Being one of the first handful of OG’s who arrived shortly after this site went live many years ago, I can affirm that “recently” is wholly inaccurate. CharlesM, SteveA, lt, and the rest of the *certain people/politicians/party* haters have been spewing their political views for quite some time in either slickly worded posts or unmitigated puking of their disgust – despite the posting guidelines and repeated curbing of that activity. Some of us actually archive ALL site comments/posts, so the proof is there if you want to challenge it.
Puking out rants about the 25th amendment, martial law via military force against citizens, propaganda, and rioting in the streets is so far over any line that it’s not funny. Narrowing the timeline for simplicity’s sake, just since the election, rants from Whidbey et al are not walking a line. People say what they feel – slickly worded or not. They were told to curb it but the only thing that changes is the amount of time before more of their non-investment verbal diarrhea reappears.
Many very valuable people have come and gone over the years and the general reasoning boils down to the same issue: POLITICS.
Expect more of the same in the future. I know that many valuable people lurk but do not post here and that quite bluntly, sucks. It hurts everyone to some degree. But for as long as the grenades and sniper shots are allowed, more and more will go silent and again, this only hurts everyone who could stand to benefit from the knowledge and power of the collective.
Unfortunately, some believe that their hate (and uncontrollable need to voice said hatrid) of certain people or a party is more important than the sharing of the knowledge and so it shall be, I presume. Very disappointing to miss out on valuable participation of the larger audience because of the unmitigated selfishness of a few petulant whiners who can’t accept election results.
It wasn’t Trump manipulating the markets, so he’s furious. In an unplanned event, cronies must have lost money.
Or with the volatility, cronies made a lot of money since they get foreknowledge of what he does.
Not political, the usual money game which transcends politics.