Knocking on the 3% Door

The 10 year treasury traded above 3% yesterday but couldn’t hold that level and closed just under 3%.  With the Bank of England raising interest rates early today we had thought rates might pop over 3% again, but further fears of Chinese tariffs has served to to create a minor rush to safety holding rates flat while sending stocks down a bit.  Additionally the UK doesn’t carry much global punch–if the European Central Bank raised rates that would be a different story.

So tomorrow we have the official employment report (the ADP report yesterday being the unofficial report) and we expect to see 150,000 to 250,000 new jobs being created and this would be the Goldilocks number.  Obviously any variation from this wide range would be cause for investigation–but as with all news items after 2 hours markets will rationalize either a good or bad number and we will move onto the next news item.


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