Keeping Cool in a Rocky Market

Even though we have seen the DJIA off over 1000 points there is no reason to lose your cool. With the website down for 5 hours I lost my cool about the downtime, but I haven’t been excited at all about the DJIA fall. Like all security moves the ‘fear of the unknown’ is a big factor–and that is what we have now–lots of unknowns–about growth and about the progress of the corona virus.

I don’t like to see “red” in my accounts, but thus far today no significant damage has been done–down maybe a few 1/10’s%–but I hold almost no common stocks which is where I see some real damage being done. Cruise lines, shippers, container owners, oil and gas–real damage with many 8-10% losers.

I mentioned container owners Triton International (TRTN) and CAI International (CAI) last week and that if I owned those shares I would be studying my options. CAI is off around 8% today and Triton around 3-4%. TRTN preferreds are off 1-2% today, but the CAI preferred are hanging tough.

I am concerned with interest rates–the Fed has no real dry powder to help the economy (if it needs help–not sure it does). Today’s overnight REPO was normal at around $40 billion so no special overnight liquidity being announced–I suspect the Fed is watching closely, but resisting any extra REPOs–or maybe it is just that the primary dealers have not requested liquidity.

Today I did buy some of the new Priority Income Fund 6.625% term preferred (PRIFF) as it tumbled down into the low $24.30’s. I bought a full position and will see where we go from here–this would be a flip only as I already own the 7% PRIF-D issue.

Buckle up for the close today–if the markets fall into the close look for a weak open again tomorrow. If we get a bounce of a couple hundred points into the close we could see a bounce tomorrow morning. We need to watch for overnight news on any corona virus outbreaks in Africa where it would be a true disaster.

16 thoughts on “Keeping Cool in a Rocky Market”

  1. Reported on CNBC Monday, the B of A Fund Manager Survey Results of Fund Managers says the #1 threat to the global markets is the 2020 election, #2 is the bond bubble, and #3 is the Corona virus.

  2. Rocky days are busy trading days. When it’s wild, preferred issues don’t fall in tandem. I move around between them and these small gains take the sting out of the daily losses.

  3. I consider these emotional selloffs bargain hunting time. Going to peek at some of my watch list stuff.

  4. Iam still one of those “Old Timers” that own some blue chip stocks just for the hopes of getting a little growth in the portfolio. The funny thing is Iam only about 18% in equities and the other 82% in fixed income. But Iam still down over $64,000 today. Not a fun day for sure. But I’ll be fine.

    1. Chuck- Sorry to hear. Whatever the amount, the proportionality should matter more no? I’m down more than I’d like in total but it’s 0.3% TLA as my low vol portfolio is filled with munis and those low interest rate preferreds everybody disdains.

      Being down that amount means you also rode up quite a bit this year and the market is just taking it back. Life gets shorter at the long end so I’m going to run out and cheer myself up in the warm California weather. Please try to enjoy something of this day even if it’s just a delicious dinner.

      1. Hello Hster; I hope this finds you doing well. I was very “Lucky” over the years. I owned my own business for well over 40 years and made some either lucky or good choices on stocks to buy. So what Iam saying is yes I do have a very large portfolio. I have around 65 bonds and another 40 or so preferreds plus some blue chip stocks that I took big positions in years ago. So yes, they have “run up” alot. Especially my “MA” and “V”. They are both up well over 1,000% since I bought them at their respective IPO’s. So I can’t bitch a bit. Iam “envious” didn’t know you lived in beautiful California. We rent an “Oceanfront” condo in Oceanside every Feb. for 2 weeks. Love it dearly. Walk down the beach to “Rubys Diner” often. Its at the end of a very long pier right in Oceanside. Like I said, I love beautiful California. BUT I will say this its just a little to “LIBERAL” for my tastes to live there year round. I’ll just stick it out here in Omaha, even though the weather sucks here.

        1. Chuck, Hmm I just figured it out…Investor for many years, large portfolio, and lives in Omaha. You have just been exposed….I saw you on tv today, you are Warren Buffett hiding under an alias! 🙂

          1. I see now! It wasn’t 64K, it was 64 million you lost today. Don’t worry Mr. Buffet- value will make a comeback in the new decade.

    2. Fixed income is a bit too general a term. Sounds like you into high coupon paying risky stuff rather than the BBB- and higher S&P rated.

  5. Tim,
    Glad to see the site back up, I start my investing day with you so it was odd making trades today without having checked in.

    Still won’t be selling my TRTN-Cs, I won’t start crying uncle until it goes below $20 but I plan to hold until called. I thought there would be more to buy today. I scraped off a few AGNCPs but I guess the preferreds were so inflated that letting a little air out didn’t make them a good deal. I guess it’ll be a fun week for us.

    1. TRTN preferreds should hold decent–unless the virus spreads and the hit is more than a 1 off quarterly event–if it goes 2 or 3 (or who knows) quarters there will nervous nellie selling.

  6. Those who followed me into TLT should take profits or tighten stop to protect profits.ATB.

  7. I have been following all reports on this site and don’t want to lose it
    If there is a problem with it ,I would hope that you would reply to where I can receive a new site if possible

    Thank you

      1. Tim – Appreciate all you do and have to put up with, and LOL, love your pithy wit!

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