Our site runs on donations to keep it running for free. Please consider donating if you enjoy your experience here!

Just in Case–Get That Seatbelt Fastened

Tomorrow we will have the monthly employment report released.

I see that after a bit of a soft report in October with a 128,000 new job numbers the consensus for November is 180,000 new jobs.

ADP released a 67,000 non farm number for November on Wednesday–that is a damned sight lower than 180,000.

So we all know that these numbers are many times in conflict–and in the end, irrespective of what you believe, the marketplace takes the government report as the ‘official’ employment report, typically ignoring ADP.

One thing is almost certain–if ADP is correct we will likely see a sharp move lower in stocks and a 5-10 basis point move lower in the 10 year treasury–recession talk would be back on the table.

Of course my predictions are worth less than a cup of coffee–BUT just in case I am buckling up at 7:25 a.m. tomorrow.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *