This will be a wild ride today as the consumer price index comes in very hot with almost all numbers above forecast. The 10 year is at 4.63% right now which is 9-10 basis points higher than yesterday. Equities are off around 1%.
Perpetuals are going to get spanked today–for those only looking for a solid income stream it might be a good shopping day–for others like me it is definitely a ‘watching’ day, although even short duration issues could offer a somewhat better price than yesterday.
We have Powell testifying again today in 90 minutes–so there will be a immediate response to the CPI. All in all the day could be a bit crazy.
Users who liked this:
Great Day for buying. Bought ATH-D and NMFCZ.
For me it is simple, is it safe and am I happy with yield and yield to worst. All the decision variables made before purchase. Just want safe income stream with these investments, not trading in and out for cap gains. Good luck to those that do.
Absent the Fed clearly stating interest rate direction, which is not common, all the chatter about rate direction or short or even midterm equity market direction just noise; although fun to hear as emotions sway with news of the day.
Anyhow I love these days for purchases; greater income stream per investment dollar.
Tacitus-
Why do you consider ATH-D and NMFCZ safe?
My criteria for what I feel sufficiently safe may be different than yours. May have posted them once, not sure. But whatever you may feel safe and good yield for creating income streams may be cheaper on days like these. Point is my goals for preferred and baby bonds are to build perceived safe income streams, not flip for cap gains. So days like these just make that easier.
What I find baffling is that many posters on this site are focused on government spending cuts. I agree with the idea that spending cuts will be very supportive of helping tame inflation.
We also have posters that are focused on the planned tax cuts. I agree with the idea that unpaid for tax cuts will increase the deficit and could be negative for rates.
I truly do not understand the focus on just one side of the coin.
I will wait and see where we stand after both the spending cuts and tax cuts are passed.
As somebody pointed out on my waiting, to see what Hawaiian Electric’s new credit ratings will be. Keep on waiting. The market, the market moved HE preferred’s month ago. Perhaps, I did miss out. So be it.
Might I miss out on an opportunity again? This to me is one of the more unpredictable times for what the government may do. So, If I miss out, so be it. It will not be my 1st time and is unlikely to be my last time.
It is difficult to talk about both sides of the coin, spending and taxing, without falling into a political hole around these parts. So I think people just get a shot in where they can while sliding under the radar.
To me, it’s numbers.
Steve,
To others it’s not just that, it’s much more. There are many forums for you to discuss all that, Reddit I hear is a great place.
Steve,
Please don’t tell the IRS I’m deducting opportunity losses!!
I get to decide if they are short or long-term.
What I find baffling is your nonstop posting of political comments, even though everyone repeatedly asks that this forum remain a political-free zone.
Kind of a muted reaction honestly. I think the market is interpreting this print as noise. IMO steadily reducing the feds balance sheet with QT and newsflow/action around government cuts will be supportive of lower rates. Can we avoid recession without government hiring/spending? Thats the bigger question and also likely supportive of stable declining long-term yields. Just my thoughts anyway.
Inflation going higher or lower? Lower by April-May based on Truflation according to this article.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/truflation-data-points-to-a-coming-decline-in-cpi
Hope they are right.
Treasury just happens to have 42 billion of 10 year notes up for sale today and the sale window is open for a few more hours. Near dated maturing securities estimated at around 106 billion. Today will be interesting. JMO. DYODD.
Bear, really wanted to participate in this one. 4.5% coupon? I don’t know. Was really hoping some angst would push it to 5% but not going to happen.
I bought the W/I