How will you know when the bubble will burst?? Canaries in the Coal Mine

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  • #12715 Reply
    sdmarc

    What are the signs you look for that things have got out of hand. Not thinking about black swan events what makes you say “I think I need to get out”

    #12716 Reply
    sdmarc

    It’s not shocking to think the markets are in a bubble but I got more concerned his past week reading Howard Marks’ newest letter https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos. Howard Marks from Oaktree is one of the best distressed debt investors in past 25 years and has written fantastic books on understanding market and economic cycles. After being locked in his home during quarantine with his son’s family (his son is a venture capital guy and manages the family office and talked to dad about growth companies/bitcoin/etc) he has convinced himself that “this time is different” which is 180 degrees on his long time mantra.  Maybe he is bored like the rest of us (he sold Oaktree to brookfield in 2018 for $5 billion because distressed investing opportunities were limited) but if he changed his 40 years of experience ideals in 10 months It’s hard to know what to think today.

    #12731 Reply
    Yuriy

    There is one great chart in the last Gundlach’ memo: https://www.scribd.com/document/490529953/Gundlach-Presentaiton-Just-Markets-1-12-2021

     

    in which the disparities of the sectors represented in the S&P 500 are clearly visible in comparison with their real contribution to the economy.

    Nobody knows how long this bubble will last. But there is no doubt that such excesses are not sustainable in the long run, so it can last for another year, two or three … but in the end it will definitely burst.

    #12752 Reply
    Heron250

    More like a Dissertation.

    #12753 Reply
    Heron250

    Re: Marks, not Gundlach

    #12755 Reply
    Citadel West

    Good graphic Yuriy!

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