Common Stock Chat

This page is set up for those that want to chat about various common stocks.

There are no rules–other than the usual–no politics.

1,053 thoughts on “Common Stock Chat”

  1. I keep running into well-known stocks that are making new lows after an all-time high in recent years. Today it was NKE. I mentioned buying tiny positions in two such, DOW and PFE, for the yield.

      1. Jtrader-
        Historically, DOW appears to be a reliable payer, as I remember. The stock might go lower. My position is so small that my risk is very low.

    1. My current portfolio contains an award winning selection of precisely those type of dog stocks featuring Merck, Pepsi, and Comcast. All were bought in the 1970s and 1980s, and the tax attributes discouraged me from selling. I was fortunate to sell PFE very near its all time high. Currently, I’m a seller of spin-offs CEG and PM, each with an adjusted cost basis of less than $10/share. Most proceeds are going to US2Y, but I did do some PMTV on issue.

      1. Comcast!?
        I apologize. I saw today that someone was coming out with a 200 m IPO for a spac vehicle I think but probably wrong from RITM and another company was going to come out with a 6 million IPO for America’s TV that person probably has already bought his tickets for Argentina.

  2. Surprising to me that energy-hungry China tariffed energy including coal and LNG (both 15%) and crude oil (10%). Not surprising that China further restricted sales of rare earths to the US.

    Ramaco Resources is a company to watch as the Chinese retaliatory tariffs and trade restrictions kick in. Not so much for the steel coal (no apparent China sales) but for the upside potential in rare earths, which have military and electronics uses. I view the rare earths as a pure lottery ticket, win/lose. Pro: Always nice to own something someone with a big checkbook like the Pentagon needs.

    Cons: Ramaco has been complaining about falling coal prices while claiming it is doing fine. It has low production costs. Tariff retaliation risk: most coal revenue comes from exports to Canada,, Europe and Asia. I consider Ramaco very speculative with trade war risks, falling commodity prices and uncertain steel markets.

    Ramaco has two classes of stock available. METC. METCB. I thought the BB at 8.375% was the better way to play the lottery ticket on the rare earths. METCZ. (Pure yield hogging.) Long with one coupon banked and an eye on the exit due to potential Fidelity roach motel / trading limit issue. JMO. DYODD.

    1. METCL 9% dropped in 2022 and since then has traded in the $25 range. Matures in 7/26. Expecting (hoping) it to stay in the $25 range.
      Own METCL and METCZ. Holding and watching.

    2. Bear,
      Thanks for mentioning this. I saw a blurb on this the other day and promptly forgot about it. I need to do some digging into it (pardon the pun).

      China started warming its relations with Australia over the last year after several years of “punishment” and is increasing coal and other mineral imports from them. I think this was probably “insurance” against trump winning and starting in on China again (which is happening).

      I would expect Australian miners to go up as that kicks in. Off the top of my head, I am thinking WDS, SOUHY, BHP, RIO, maybe AAL (but I haven’t done any research on it yet).

  3. For those of us that own FBAK (First Nat’l Bank Alaska), congrats!!!, 25% dividend increase just announced

  4. I have posted frequently about NVIDIA. I posted last August (I believe) that I would let it ride and buy no more as I have been purchasing since 2016. With the market disruption and NVIDIA’s price decline, I looked at my lot purchases and found I have no loss. It was difficult not to add but I remind myself I won the lottery, no need to keep playing. But I couldn’t resist adding to Taiwan and Cyber. I believe in index funds but I believe in the USA technology even more! My largest holding remains Microsoft which I have not added to since 2013. These US companies are great compounders. We are blessed to live in this country, I surely appreciate the gifts it has given me.

  5. From Reuters, the first report I’ve seen about the effects of the new tariffs on energy prices. Not an investing story, but mentions pipelines and refineries serving various US areas so may be of interest. I wasn’t aware that a Canadian refinery is a swing producer for the East Coast or that energy imports from Mexico, now taxed at 25%, go to the Gulf Coast. (Canadian crude got a light touch.) The market will start sorting this out on Monday. May be a good day for tankers. Long energy.

    Pump prices set to rise as Trump tariffs hit Canadian, Mexican oil
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pump-prices-set-rise-trump-234405840.html

    I mentioned a few IPOs here earlier. I took a look at their current prices. (No interest in these, information only.)
    — Venture Global VG, a LNG company, IPO price was expected to be $43 but was cut to $25, now trading around $20.45. This one surprised me. LNG was supposed to be a sure thing.
    — Pork producer Smithfield Foods SFD fared better. IPO was priced at $20, below its 25 target, now trading at 21.50.
    — Frontview, FVR, a niche REIT, IPO priced at 19, now trading at 17.24. Indicated dividend is 4.9%. JMO. DYODD.

  6. BMTX deal closed – Mentioned BMTX previously, small spinoff out of CUBI. It officially closed @ $5/share a/o 1/31 but no signs of a closing transaction showing up yet at Fido or Schwab…….. not surprising but hopefully will see it on Monday..

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1725872/000121390025003963/ea0227753-8k_bmtech.htm

    Also https://bmtx.com/investor-relations – “As of January 31, 2025, BM Technologies, Inc. (BMTX) is a wholly owned subsidiary of First Carolina Bank, which is a privately held company.

    For any investment-related questions, please contact us at investorrelations@firstcarolinabank.com.”

  7. Picked up some BEN (Franklin Resources), CDUAF (Canadian Utilities Limited), and HRL (Hormel). Not too exciting.

    1. Pig, did you buy the CDUAF on Schwab or E-trade? I’m a little hesitant to buy at Fido hotel Calif. you can check in but you can’t check out .
      some days it has low trade volume.

        1. yep Pig pile. That is where I bought it before. I ran the cursor over the 1yr chart on Fidelity and saw a few low volume days.
          I just had to deal with another reject sell order on Fido Thurs. the rep hadn’t heard of this. Had to call several people higher up and instead of getting a trade window opened up for 5 min. he promised to enter the order himself and waive the fee for helping. Still messed it up. Put it in as good for the day. Had to cancel it and re-enter as GTC. Asked him how long he had been there and he said 7 months. This generated a questionnaire to my e-mail asking me how had the transaction gone.

  8. MSFT down over 6% today. I don’t know is it has anything to do with China’s Deepseek. MSFT has been bouncing up and down for a year. Looks like an opportunity to me so I bought.

  9. UPS falling knife this morning on earnings. I have a target/guess at 101.50 where the yield would be 6.4% based on the most recent dividend. Don’t own, just watching.

    DOW down big on earnings, reported zero. Low so far 37.49. My deep target has been 34. I extended it to 32. The yield is getting interesting with a 70 cents dividend. Is there a message about the economy here?

  10. I just noticed that PFE bumped the dividend a penny to 43 cents, making my YOC 6.9% for my purchase at 25. The CY is 6.4%, Price up 3% today.

    I’m really starting to appreciate how a big dividend for a value stock and even a small dividend for a growth stock can influence investor behavior.

    1. I have limited my common stock holdings to JEPI and JEPQ. Individual stocks with big dividends can shock you if they decide to take the company in a different direction. Good luck with PFE. By bumping up the dividend it appears they’re sticking with it. Have you checked out the dividend on Reality Income (O)?

      1. Richard-
        The CY on O is nothing special right now compared to preferreds. PFE was a small bottom fishing buy.

  11. SOR – Source Capital – I know some III’ers follow SOR, including Tim I think. This seems odd to me: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/source-capital-proposes-merger-180-223000663.html.

    I’ve followed 180 Degree Capital, [TURN}, the other side of this deal, for many years, even before it was 180 Degree and traded under the symbol TINY. It also used to be called Harris&Harris.. In any event, I got out of it in 9/22 when I began to feel they were falling under the influence of RILY given many of their holdings were beginning to come from issues underwritten by RILY and included most of RILY’s clinkers

    TURN has already agreed to another all stock merger with My. Logan Capital, but imho, merging into the larger and better managed SOR seems like the better situation but again, an all stock deal….. TURN has traded at a dramatic discount to NAV in the range of 25% if you believe managements calculations of NAV, so theoretically this could turn into a discounted way to own more SOR if the deal should go thru…. I’m not and will not be a player in this….

  12. Pitney Bowes [PBI and PBI-B]

    I know a few, but not many, are following the turnaround story with Pitney Bowes so I decided to put this update to the situation here in a less crowded area….. Ratings at this stage are just confirmed, not upgraded, but the announcement of this new revolver and the retirement of secured debt that was to be due in 2028 means there is no near term debt maturities in their corporate structure before March 2027. It looks to me as though Moodys is satisfied the restructuring is going as planned or better

    https://archive.ph/2RMvO

  13. Re: tariff risks. A bar chart breaking down Mexican and Canadian exports to the US by industry. Largest exports to the US are autos (Canada and Mexico) and oil (Canada). IMHO, US based automakers, Midwest US refinery owners and CA pipeline companies are watch list items. JMO. DYODD.

    “Americans buy $900 billion a year in stuff from Mexico and Canada. Tariffs could affect these prices the most.”
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-buy-900-billion-in-goods-from-mexico-and-canada-tariffs-could-affect-these-prices-the-most-8c50f875?

    1. Bear, are you watching to buy or short?
      Azure blue mentioned he thought refinery stocks would be a good place park some money.

      1. I am full up on energy and I am not looking to add. I sold South Bow SOBO. Canadian, quite a bit of debt, not covering the divvy, tariff risk and currency risk on the USD dividend. Right now, SOBO is a lottery ticket that I do not want to hold.

        Watch to buy: pipeline majors. Big price run ups (KMI), less attractive dividends (KMI) and a market that has not noticed intertwined Canadian and US operations. There may be opportunities.

        Watch to sell: Domestic crude oil producers. There are more geopolitical reasons for oil prices to drop than increase.

        I can see AZB’s logic on refiners, which benefit from lower input costs if prices fall. On the other had refinery operators tied to Canadian pipelines like CHS could face increased costs.

        I don’t short – too risky for me. JMO. DYODD.

        1. Thanks Bear,
          You know I passed on SOBO didn’t even buy the lotto ticket. You and I are on the same page. 40% of the market for natural gas transport.
          https://www.kindermorgan.com
          Yeah, Mid-west and refineries in OK use Ca. heavy crude. Instead of modernizing when the glory days of US crude started to fade and it became more light crude from fracking they continue to run the older refineries by blending their heavy crude with the lighter. I think only a couple new refineries have been built in the US in the last 30 or 40 years. No interest in searching AI probably be wrong anyway.

    2. I don’t see anything on those two lists that the United States doesn’t or cannot produce itself. Seems like the chief US export to those two countries over the years has been jobs. 🤔

      1. Will tariff’s on Mexico hurt or help KMI? Mexico is a oil and gas producer
        https://naturalgasintel.com/news/mexico-lng-exports-driving-bullish-natural-gas-outlook-for-kinder-morgan/
        Trane moved some of it’s production out of Ohio to Mexico
        https://www.acrlatinoamerica.com/en/news/latest-news/348-enterprises/19319-trane-plant-expansion-ready-at-a-cost-of-us-18-million.html#:~:text=Mexico.,mainly%20to%20the%20US%20market.
        A lot of inter-woven threads

        1. Your linked article on KMI is one year old. Not sure reviewing Q4 2023 results is the best way to evaluate the company in 2025. Maybe as a starting point to see if their predictions/promises were realized, but I’d be more interested in the quarter just ended in 2024.

          1. Citadel, my point was more about the strength of the size of a pipeline company like KMI owning so many different investments and I think they have been working on reducing debt.
            Also the point of how much American business have been relying on investments and production and sales outside the US
            Some companies can onshore business relatively easy like I wouldn’t be surprised Trane can reopen their Ohio factory and find workers. Of course it will cost more to manufacture here as that was the point in moving production. So whether it’s the higher cost of tariffs or made in the USA the consumer had better get used to paying more. I.E. inflation.
            Just saying it’s more complicated than just the tariffs and as investors how do we make the best of it.

  14. LNG exporter Venture Global VG cut its IPO offering price range down to $23-27 from $40-46, dropping its market cap from $100-110 billion to 65 billion. It will be selling more shares at the lower price. Investors apparently balked at VG’s optimistic assumptions. Some earlier reports noted complaints from customers like Shell about not receiving contracted product as agreed, claiming VG sold it on the spot market.

    Even with its 40% off sale, VG is a big company. It will appear in your favorite ETF, CEF or analyst recommendation soon enough. So just watching from the sidelines. JMO. DYODD.

    1. Bear I wonder how Woods LNG project is going after their buyout? Seems like an abundance of gas and everyone is joining the party.

  15. This post is about a common stock and also flipping. I have backed way off on flipping since 2023 and rarely do flipping for dividend capture. Most of my trades in 2023 were on merger and acquisition companies. Basically picking up dimes and quarters in front of the steamroller.
    This month’s flip was SUM for about $1.25 share profit. More than I normally get.
    I’m done and out but I know a few people here who might be interested in this sort of thing.
    Normally I pick a stock that has a smaller value than SUM and flip the smaller daily price movements. You can buy larger quantities of a lower cost stock and with no fees 3 or 4 trades the profits add up.

    1. I agree dividend capture is less effective lately but I still do it in concert with other factors, need a good price too not just an ex-div date. Good time to trade something I want to trade anyway.

      1. Same Martin, I just don’t do it as often anymore. I especially need a more predictable market to feel comfortable doing flipping with certain sectors of the market.
        Reason I do M&A is because that is 2 partners dancing out on the dance floor.

  16. Smithfield Foods SFD is IPO-ing in a week or so. Expected price is $24 to 27. SFD is a major pork processing company best known for its consumer brands like Smithfield, Eckrich, Armour, Morrell, and Nathans Famous. It operates in the US, mostly, and Mexico. Its China based corporate parent will retain 92% of SFD.

    Sentiment: On the sidelines. There may be some free market share to be had in packaged meat after the Boar’s Head debacle. I have no real interest in thinking about SFD until there is clarity on Mexico tariffs (lots of noise) and China tariffs (radio silence) and retaliation. SFD exports a lot of pork. China is a pork importer. Don’t know if those two intersect. JMO. DYODD.

    1. Bear I had heard about that last year. China had issues with pork production there. Small farmers over producing, pollution, prices dropping. Less than 1 or 2 years after they bought Smithfield. Then there’s Brazil.
      I was interested, but not now things change

  17. Cigarette stocks are interesting. The FDA has proposed cutting the allowable nicotine content to 1/15th of what it is now. Not sure how to play that, but stocks like MO and BTI haven’t moved all that much since the announcement. Not sure what is happening there. Maybe they will provide nicotine in other formats that are just as, or more profitable.

    1. IMHO, dividends are safe from this rule’s impact for a few years, say 2028. Comments on the rule end in Sept 2025. It would not be effective for at least two years. Lawsuits might delay it for years. The proposed rule applies to traditional cigarettes, a declining business with an aging demographic, not e-cigarettes, vaping, etc products which are the growth areas. FWIW, the FDA just approved a PM vaping pouch. JMO. DYODD.

  18. May be of interest to energy investors. Venture Global VG expects to do an IPO around Friday of this week. It is in the business of liquefying and exporting Liquid Natural Gas aka LNG. Pricing is expected at $40 to 46. It would be no surprise if the VG offering was oversubscribed and the stock pops. LNG is a hot topic these days and VG is only offering a minuscule ~2% of its float, around $2.1 billion, giving it a market cap of around $100 billion. Watching from the sidelines here. JMO. DYODD.

  19. Louis Vuitton (LVMUY) up over 9% today but down for the year and Richemont (OTC: CFRUY) up over 17% today and up for the year. Is this a turn around fro luxury brands? There’s plenty of wealth in the world for luxury spending.

    1. Charles, nice move on IBRX. The only Bio company I’ve gambled on is PGEN and it’s been sliding down since 2020. I’m surprised they are still in business. A very big maybe is for FDA approval for a commercial product in 2025. I do own a very small amount.

      1. This is a trade for me the last 2 or 3 years. I’m thinking going forward on the next time I book a profit I want to see how much I have at zero cost and keep a core holding.
        I have done ok in biotech. Trading AUPH, ATNM, and several I don’t even remember. I’ve learned to just focus on one at a time, used to spread the bets out thinking it increased the odds but I’m average joe when it comes to multi tasking.

        1. Also danzeb, some people use options to cover themselves. I don’t do that. Never learned and too old now to start.
          I don’t do long term holds, I ‘ve had one I rode to a buyout but I have missed a few and missed a couple highs selling too soon. Better to walk away from the table with a decent pot than buying and thinking your going to hit the lottery.

  20. A report on Bloomberg about keeping, removing or modifying sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela, all major oil producers. Oil prices will be impacted, though in what direction is not clear. Of interest – a mention of sanctioning shippers. I don’t know if that’s priced in yet. (Nor tariff risks for ocean freight shippers) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-team-readies-oil-sanctions-124240838.html

    A lot of competing forces in oil right now, most of which are not economic. And a lot of players too. Initial lottery results expected soon. Remember to check your tickets. JMO. DYODD.

  21. Any thoughts on FNMA and FMCC? The Ackman presentation was interesting. It seems like a possibility that they may IPO in the next few years. I own Pershing Square Holdings and both these stocks are holdings in his fund.

    https://x.com/BillAckman

    1. I am not the speculator I once was. So I would not direct buy. I would stick with Pershing Square and see how Ackman’s bet plays out. There is sentiment for privatization and as we say here in the NJ Meadowlands, reports suggest Ackman is properly connected. I have looked at Pershing Square from time to time. I don’t own it and, other than for the FNMA/FMCC kicker, would be reluctant to buy. The holdings are too concentrated for me. JMO. DYODD.

      1. BearNJ—I went to high school in Bergen County a long, long time ago. Back then, it was not called the “meadowlands”, but the “swamplands”. It was truly a swamp where a friend trapped muskrats and sold their pelts for less than a dollar each. I suspect most of it is still somewhat swampy. However, meadow certainly sounds better. (: = )

        1. The Meadowlands are still swampy but shopping centers, industrial parks, offices, a railroad terminal, a stadium and a race track (known as “The Meadowlands”) have all popped up during my time. Nobody told Mother Nature about the new CRE and hurricane flooding occurs. Many of the old local “shortcut” roads still dead end at nowhere dry. So escape during a fierce storm can be an adventure even with a Jeep. Don’t know anything about muskrats. Lived in Detroit and “Downriver” muskrats were considered good eating, a tradition dating back to the first French settlers.

          Congratulations on having the good sense to move to the Whidbey / San Juan islands / Puget Sound area. I love NJ and Detroit but love the Pac NW too. Have fond memories from my carefree hippie years of a very hot tub on a very cold morning with a sparkling ocean view through the pines. Doe Bay?

      2. Pershing Square has done well for me as I bought it on the teens because of the discount to NAV. Of course any fund manager has good years and bad years. Trump Admin wants to privatize which should bump up the value in the long run, but I agree with you it is speculative as there seems to be a lot of hype right now. It may be a good play to average into over the next year.

  22. RILY down 13% today. Haven’t seen any news.
    Dividend was $2.00 before they suspended it in mid 2024. If they where still paying it that would be about 50% .
    RILYM note up today but RILYZ down.

  23. Bought some PEO. Probably should have waited as we may get a correction, but oil and gas are flying today. 9% discount as of 1/8/25.

    1. PEO is an easy way to get diversification into solid blue chips in the general energy sector with some income but without having to pick a winning stock or subsector. Their new managed dividend policy should come in around 6.5%. Their old policy was 3Q low plus 4Q variable which confused the “yield = (4x latest Q) / price” computer algorithms. There has been increased interest in PEO among income investors since the change. As you noted, oil goes up and down. I panic with small E&P-types and I do think WTI is on the way down. I am a long term holder of PEO. JMO. DYODD.

  24. Banks – What is the bear case for banks, both regional and TGTF banks in this environment? It seems the move up in interest rates today combined with the effects of the steepening yield curve would be tailwinds for banks, no? Interest rate reaction was in response to stronger than expected economic environment, not a weakening one, so why the higher than market decline percentages movements down today in banks? Is it concern about outstanding investment portfolios including real estate? It seems overdone vis a vis the overall market imho…. What am I missing?

    1. As I write this, 80% of stocks on the NYSE are down, so the market is selling everything. Maybe this will create some bargains?

  25. Early estimates of insured losses from the California fires are coming in at 10-15 billion. The headline news numbers are much higher ~50-55 billion. As a rough rule of thumb, divide the headline number by 4 or 5. Headline numbers are “economic losses.” (IMHO, there’s a big difference between someone losing their home and someone cancelling his Disney hotel reservations, not renting a car, not buying a Rolex on Rodeo drive and the Rolex salesman not buying champagne. Losses to be sure but qualitatively different ones. )

    “State Farm, Farmers, Liberty Mutual, CSAA Insurance Group, Mercury Insurance Group and Allstate Insurance Group are the state’s biggest homeowners insurers, according to AM Best.” The largest by far is State Farm.

    The carrier that stands out is Mercury MCY. It is a small company with a big California presence in auto and homeowners. MCY was down ~6% yesterday and was off steeply in the aftermarket. Allstate ALL, a bigger carrier that writes about the same amount of homeowner premiums as MCY, traded up in spite of the fire news. Likewise Travelers TRV and Hartford HIG other bigger carriers.

    It will take a while to finalize losses and to determine who pays what to whom among insurers, reinsurers and the state plan. Sentiment: holding insurers, but not adding. JMO. DYODD.

    1. Interesting to see if they employ the same legal strategy for cost recovery. Blaming local utility provider.

      1. Good question. I don’t follow Cali Utes. Was looking for insurance impacts. I did not see any reports blaming the utilities. Although that is an interesting investment angle. JMO. DYODD.

      2. Update: Not proven that any utility is at fault, but saw a local news report quoting a company that sells home electrical fault detection monitors that its home sensors detected faults in the power grid prior to the fires. (The company’s name popped up in the Maui fire investigation.) Faults can be caused by trees falling against energized power lines. The implication was that power should have been turned off sooner. On the other hand turning off the power to thousands of homes and businesses because of a blip in 18 home sensors might cause other issues. (The back-up generators at a local hospital once failed after a power cut off.) My utilities used flicker on and off in a stiff breeze.

        The reports haven’t hit the stock sites yet. JMO. DYODD.

        1. Preliminary indication LADWP was slow to turn off power when there were indications of problems. This is not SCE.
          Interesting side note, They still use Lead pipe as I have had RFQ’s. I wondered if it was for buried cables as that was a common practice with both telephone and power co’s. They pulled a lot of Lead encased copper lines after the Navy turned Mare Island over to Vallejo

          1. Wow, Charles, not SCE. Are EIX and the SCE preferreds falling on an incorrect assumption regarding responsibility?

            The Google AI had this to say:
            “Southern California Edison (SCE) is the power company that serves Pacific Palisades, California. “

  26. K1 stalwarts Plains All American (PAA) with a 20% increase in distribution and Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) with a 1.9% increase. Two top 10 performers over the last 4 yrs in the pig pile 200. starting out of the gates in 2025 also nicely.

      1. Dan, that was why I went with their bonds. With rates bouncing around you might want to watch them.

      2. I was told PAGP is essentially the same stock as PAA only without the k-1. I haven’t researched it as I became a PAA owner long ago, probably before PAGP was available.

  27. If there are any KRP fans here, they are bringing more shares to market to finance an expansion and retire some old debt. I expect KRP to be on sale today.

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