Well the time has arrived for the release of the only economic number of the week that could have moved the markets–but it has now been talked about so much that it is likely to be a minor blip, at the most, on stock and bond markets.
Predictions have ranged from growth of 3.5% to over 5%. Almost everyone who predicts these things says this is a ‘one off’ show of strength.
Seems to us that only a very large miss from the expected range is likely to be meaningful–a 2% growth rate or a 6% rate for instance would probably move markets but something in the 3.5% to 5% range will be a big yawn.
The 10 year is trading at 2.98% this morning so a number in the high end of the range could push rates over 3%, but since every prediction includes the statement that this is a one off we think the likelihood of a big move is quite remote at this time.