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Interest Rates In Holding Pattern

The 10 year treasury is holding flat in the 4.04% area this morning which is up just a few basis points from the close yesterday. Looking at the economic calendar there is nothing really there–nothing yesterday, nothing today and little tomorrow so this would seem to indicate that rates are going to hang in a narrow band until we get to the consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday. After the strong jobs reports last week investors are a bit leery of the supposed rate cut from the FOMC in March–right now the odds are 57% that the rate gets cut–this is down from a number in the 70%’s. A hot number Thursday (CPI) and/or Friday (PPI) will put a stake in these dreams. We have no data at this point that says ‘cut rates’.

Equities are a bit lower this morning, but markets still have lots of opportunities to move higher as ‘dry powder’ is everywhere–and available quickly. As always I am not dependent on equities moving higher I just don’t want them moving too fast–either up or down–take it slow!!.

Yesterday we had mREIT MFA Financial (MFA) price a new issues of baby bonds. The 4 million share issue prices at 8.875%. For me it is a ‘no thank you’. The good part of this issue is that it has a maturity of 2029. The short maturity date will keep the price relatively stable.

Yesterday I did no buying or selling. Actually I see a few issues I could sell–but have no buys on my radar at this minute–guess I better get busy looking harder again, because I hate to contemplate a sale without an identified buy option. The Brighthouse Financial preferred I just bought jumped 50 cents yesterday–makes me question buying a small position with plans to go back in for more–I may have to up my initial buy quantity. We’ll see if it trades back down or if it trades up to my $23/share target right away..

Headlines of Interest

Below are press releases from companys which have preferred stock and/or baby bonds outstanding–or just news of a general interest.

View Press Release

MFA Financial, Inc. Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Senior Notes

Offices Around America Hit a New Vacancy Record

Private U.S. companies increasingly going bust as profit shrinks

Enterprise Financial Services Corp Announces Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Release and Conference Call

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Assurant to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results

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Eversource Energy Announces Fourth Quarter 2023 Impairment

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Equitable Holdings Schedules Announcement of Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2023 Results

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Regency Centers Prices $400 Million Senior Unsecured Notes Offering

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MidCap Financial Investment Corporation Schedules Earnings Release and Conference Call for Quarter and Fiscal Year Ended December 31, 2023

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Vornado Realty Trust Names Cushman & Wakefield to Launch Leasing Program at Reinvented PENN 2 Office Tower in the Heart of Vornado’s PENN DISTRICT Campus

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Terreno Realty Corporation Acquires Property in Bellevue, WA for $6.5 Million

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Air Lease Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter and Year End 2023 Earnings Conference Call

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Best’s Commentary: Strong Recovery in Total Reinsurance Capital Countered by Surplus Distributions

Bought a Little Brighthouse Financial Preferred on Friday

As I disclosed in an earlier note I intended to place a good-til-cancelled order for some shares in annuity provider Brighthouse Financial (BHF).

The BHFAP 6.60% non cumulative preferred was trading at $22/share on Friday and I entered a GTC order at $21.75—the order executed Friday afternoon. This was just a starter position.

At this time I don’t know if I will add to this position–will wait to see their financials for 2023 which won’t be released until 2/12/2024 so there is more than a month to wait.

In the next 6 months I expect shares to rise into the $23 area–this is if the 10 year treasury drifts lower—and who can predict the movements really.

Mortgage REIT MFA Financial Inc to Sell Baby Bonds

mREIT MFA Financial Inc (MFA) has announced an offering of senior notes with a maturity of 2029.

The notes will have an early redemption available to the company on 2/15/2026.

The notes will trade on the NYSE under permanent ticker MFAN after they price – it will be likely next week before we see any exchange trading.

Thanks to J for catching this one and jerrymac for positing yield talk in the 9-9.125% area.

The preliminary prospectus can be read here.

Monday Morning Kickoff – Updated

Last week was kind of a crazy week. Relatively strong jobs numbers on Friday should have sent the S&P500 tumbling and the 10 year treasury yield much higher–and these reactions to the job numbers did occur–for about 15 minutes before reversing and ending higher. On the week the S&P500 fell by 1.5%.

The 10 year treasury closed the week at 4.04%—after trading in a range of 3.89% to 4.10%. The yield rose a giant sized 18 basis points higher from the close the previous Friday. With market expectations for 6 interest rate cuts this year markets were ‘set up’ for large moves on any relatively strong jobs numbers.

This week we minimal economic news Monday-Wednesday, but then we have the consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday and producer prices (PPI) being released on Friday. We may see interest rates float +/- 5 basis points Monday through Wednesday and then move strongly in one direction or the other on Thursday or Friday.

The Fed Balance Sheet fell by about $32 billion last week — a strong move lower as the reduction the last couple of weeks was relatively minimal and we are still on a $95 billion/month reduction target.

Last week was a strange week in trading of $25/share preferreds and baby bonds. While interest indicated that prices should fall–they didn’t. The average share rose 2 cents, investment grade issues fell 3 cents, banking preferreds rose 5 cents, mREIT preferreds were down 5 cents and shippers rose by 15 cents. All in all a good week for investors given the interest rate moves on the week.

Last week we had no new income issues priced. Below are the last 10 new IPOs we had in preferreds and baby bonds–pretty much trading in a strong fashion.

Entered Good Til Canceled Order On Brighthouse Financial

I entered an order for Brighthouse Financial (BHF) 6.6% Preferred. My order is at $21.75 for a current yield around 7.59%. I chose this issue of the 4 preferreds they have outstanding because it has a 1st date of optional call in March–which gives it a huge yield to call if interest rates continue to fall through 2024 – meaning lots of capital gain potential.

I reviewed the financials of the company and I don’t like to see falling equity—and they had a $1 billion reduction in equity for the quarter ending 9/30/2023–BUT I anticipate that equity will jump substantially during the quarter ending 12/31/2023 because of falling interest rates and thus increasing portfolio values (their portfolio is about $73 billion).

Shares are rated Ba2 by Moodys (2 notches below investment grade) and BBB- (investment grade) by Standard and Poors.

Interesting Day Ahead as Interest Rates Crack 4%

Today is a big day for employment stats – the ‘official’ bureau of labor statistics employment report will be released in about an hour.

Yesterday ADP released their employment report–and this report which has generally been less respected than the government report showed job growth as relatively strong–certainly stronger than forecast (164,000 versus 130,000 forecast).

Today the forecast is for 170,000 jobs being created in December versus 199,000 the month before. The unemployment rate is forecast at 3.8% versus 3.7% previous.

The 10 year treasury yield cracked 4% yesterday and this morning is trading at 4.04% as doubts of March Fed Funds rate cuts are surfacing. Economic data of all sorts has shown the economy to be fairly solid – not extremely strong, but solid. There is no reason to think the 10 year yield is going above say 4.1% or 4.15%, but if it does I would expect income portfolios to take a fairly sound beating–temporary, but painful.

Today I am going to take a look at Brighthouse Financial (BHF) preferreds and baby bonds. The issues from this insurance/annuity company are trading with current yields in the 7.25% – 7.50% area–being investment grade that is a tasty yield. If my due diligence pans out a starter position of some sort may be initiated today or Monday. This would fit right in with my investment ‘plan’

Well let’s get the day rolling and see where the employment reports take us.

Headlines of Interest

Below are press releases from companys with preferred stock and/or baby bonds outstanding–or just news of general interest.

View Press Release

W. R. Berkley Corporation to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings on January 24, 2024

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LuxUrban Hotels Declares Dividend on 13.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock

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UMH PROPERTIES, INC. 2023 YEAR END OPERATIONS UPDATE

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Old National Bancorp Announces Schedule for Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2023 Earnings Release and Conference Call

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Compass Diversified Declares Fourth Quarter 2023 Distributions on Common and Series A, B and C Preferred Shares

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CTO Realty Growth Announces 2023 Transaction and Leasing Activity and Provides Share Repurchase Update

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Safe Bulkers, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend on its 8.00% Series C Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Shares; 8.00% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Shares

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Mortgage Rates Move Sideways as Markets Digest Incoming Data

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Freddie Mac Multifamily Issued Over $53 Billion in 2023 Securities

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Apollo to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results on February 8, 2024

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SL Green Realty Corp. to Release Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results After Market Close on January 24, 2024

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Plymouth Industrial REIT Provides Activity Update for Fourth Quarter 2023

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RiverNorth Capital and Income Fund, Inc. Announces Final Results of Repurchase Offer

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Reinsurance Group of America Announces Fourth Quarter Earnings Release Date, Webcast

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MetLife to Hold Combined Earnings and Outlook Conference Call

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Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. to Report Fourth Quarter 2023 Results on February 14, 2024

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Jackson to Report Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2023 Financial Results and Provide 2024 Outlook

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Popular, Inc. Declares Dividend on Preferred Stock and Announces Distribution on Trust Preferred Securities

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Lincoln Financial Group to Report 2023 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results on February 8

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Pebblebrook Hotel Trust Extends 2024 Term Debt to 2028 and Reduces Total Debt

CHS Reset Preferreds

I have noticed a lot of chatter on the message boards relative to the CHS ‘Reset’ preferreds.

I am referring to the CHSCN and CHSCM issues. Both of these issues are due to ‘reset’ for the first time in 2024. Note that contrary to most preferred issues with ‘reset’ in their name that only reset every 5 years–these reset quarterly. Both issues originally had a ‘cap’ on the reset of 8% maximum.

These are 3 month Libor resets (3 month Libor added to a fixed spread). Given that Libor is gone many times 3 month SOFR is being used–I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IS THE CASE HERE.

Both of these issues have language in their prospectuses which outline an alternative to Libor. As I read it both will reset to a fixed rate–their original fixed rates.

For instance CHSCM has a 6.75% fixed coupon until 9/30/2024 and on 10/1/2024 the rate was supposed to change to 3 month Libor plus a spread of 4.155%. With Libor gone the back up language in the prospectus (as I read it) states it will be reset to 4.155% plus 2.595% which adds up to 6.75%.

Here is the lengthy snip from the prospectus. Let’s discuss this further.

 Holders of the Class B Series 3 Preferred Stock shall be entitled to receive, if, when and as declared by our Board of Directors, out of funds legally available for the payment of dividends, cumulative cash dividends at the following applicable rate (the “Dividend Rate”): (i) 6.75% per annum of the liquidation preference of $25.00 per share (equivalent to $1.6875 per share per annum) from, and including, September 15, 2014 to, but excluding, September 30, 2024 (the “First Reset Date”); and (ii) thereafter, while the Class B Series 3 Preferred Stock is outstanding, at an annual rate equal to three-month LIBOR, as determined for the applicable Dividend Period, plus a spread of 4.155%, but in no event will the sum of such annual rate and spread be greater than 8% per annum. For purposes of the foregoing Dividend Rate:

              “three-month LIBOR” means, for any Reset Rate Determination Date, as determined on the Reset Rate Determination Date for the applicable Dividend Period, the offered rate for deposits in U.S. dollars having a maturity of three months that appears on the Designated LIBOR Page as of 11:00 a.m., London time, on such Reset Rate Determination Date. If such rate does not appear on such page at such time, then the Calculation Agent will request the principal London office of each of four major reference banks in the London interbank market, selected by the Calculation Agent, to provide such bank’s offered quotation to prime banks in the London interbank market for deposits in U.S. dollars with a term of three months as of 11:00 a.m., London time, on such Reset Rate Determination Date and in a principal amount equal to an amount that, in the judgment of the

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Calculation Agent, is representative for a single transaction in U.S. dollars in the relevant market at the relevant time (a “Representative Amount”). If at least two such quotations are so provided, three-month LIBOR for the Dividend Period related to such Reset Date Determination Date will be the arithmetic mean of such quotations. If fewer than two such quotations are provided, the Calculation Agent will request each of three major banks in The City of New York to provide such bank’s rate for loans in U.S. dollars to leading European banks with a term of three months as of approximately 11:00 a.m., New York City time, on such Reset Rate Determination Date and in a Representative Amount. If at least two such rates are so provided, three-month LIBOR will be the arithmetic mean of such quotations. If fewer than two such rates are so provided, then three-month LIBOR for the Dividend Period related to such Reset Rate Determination Date will be set to equal the three-month LIBOR for the then current Dividend Period or, in the case of the Dividend Period commencing on the First Reset Date, 2.595%. All percentages used in or resulting from any calculation of three-month LIBOR will be rounded, if necessary, to the nearest one hundred-thousandth of a percentage point, with 0.000005% rounded up to 0.00001%.

Interest Rate Cuts? Not in March

Without the benefit of ‘data’ I think it is fair to assume there will NOT be a rate cut in March–I mean the next FOMC meeting is only about 80 days away–is the economy going straight to hell in the next 2 months? Really the FOMC meeting minutes from December didn’t give a hint that the Fed folks are focused on cutting rates. It seems to me that only a crisis will bring rate cuts as early as March–a banking crisis, a full collapse of commercial real estate or huge losses in the non bank lenders (i.e. BDCs). Of course there are any number of global ‘black swans’ out there that can’t be identified that could cause issues.

The CME Fed Watch tool did have the odds of a rate cut in March of 70%–looking this morning it is showing a 64% chance of a cut–dreamers.

The 10 year treasury is trading at 3.96% this morning–up 6 basis points from the close yesterday of 3.90%. I assume these firm rates are in reaction to the FOMC minutes yesterday–if we have a strong employment number tomorrow we will see the 10 year back over 4%.

So now that I have questions–legitimate I think–of how soon rate cuts may come in 2024 there is no hurry to invest every possible dollar. The 10 year treasury is likely stuck in the 3.7% to 4.1% range. We are likely to have some backing and filling on income issues as rates move up and down–gains in December were pretty massive and this digestion should be expected. With some backing and filling in income issues I will watch for preferreds or baby bonds to go on sale–no chasing–set some good til canceled buy orders at slightly lower levels.