We all can look at interest rates and the economy and make a reasonable guesstimate of where rates are heading–we all are about as good as the most highly educated economist. We do this all the time as we try to formulate the type of investments we want to hold (short maturity-term preferreds or perpetual securities).
But the items we can’t predict or have a good guesstimate about are ‘what are foreign buyers doing?’. We can get data on some buys and sells by foreign governments etc. but why do they do what they do?
Here is a decent article on what is currently occurring in the short end of the marketplace where the yield curve has inverted. It enlightened us to more complications in enticing foreigners to purchase our debt. This is another fly in the ointment of trying to figure out which securities are best to hold.